Category: Uncategorized

Updated 02.18.23 @ 6:45a

Just as many are getting ready to bust into full blown spring mode, it’s becoming increasingly apparent that Mother Nature has other ideas.

We note the most powerful teleconnection (especially by late winter and early spring standards) is set to head into cold phases to close Feb and open March.

NAO

That said, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is looking like it’ll be more stubborn (has been the story this year with respect to getting all of the pattern drivers to align). Based on the latest guidance, a rumble through warm Phase 7 is possible before the MJO heads into the traditionally cold Phase 8 early March. This will be critical in the ultimate pattern progression as we get into the 1st month of meteorological spring.

As a result, from a temperature standpoint, the period from now through the end of February likely continues the warmer than normal theme. That’s not to say there won’t be cold “jabs,” similar to what we saw Friday, but the longevity of cold will be fleeting given the drivers above. There’s no reason to argue with the upcoming 10-day period to essentially close out February from the European ensemble:

It’s also a rather active pattern, including at least slightly above normal precipitation throughout the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, to close the month.

While “proof is in the pudding,” especially this year, it appears as if the MJO and NAO will align to force a shift in the regime towards more sustained cold (relative to normal) as we push through the 1st half of March. Interestingly, the new European Weeklies also highlight this, and are “all-in” on a colder than normal March as a whole.

The period features a wetter than normal look, as well:

Despite what you might believe (or hope) at this point, we’re likely not finished with the accumulating snow prospects, either…

Updated 12.10.22 @ 5a

It’s been quite some time since we’ve seen the kind of alignment of pattern drivers in favor of cold, wintry weather for the heart of the holiday season. The reasoning for such has been outlined in previous posts so we won’t bore you with rehashing those details again this morning.

Simply put, it continues to look like a progressively colder pattern over the upcoming week to 10 days, that also includes plenty of storms. As colder air filters southeast, these storms will take on an increasingly wintry flavor. Potential is very much alive for a period of bitterly cold, arctic air to get involved in the pattern to close December or open January- on the heels of the stormy regime. Prospects for a White Christmas continue to look well above average this year for a good chunk of the country, including right here in central Indiana.

After a series of fairly weak and insignificant systems, a much more impactful storm will blow across the Ohio Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. A period of heavy rain will be accompanied by strong and gusty winds and a significant temperature hit during this period. It’s this system that ultimately will be responsible for ushering in the lead wave of a colder, more wintry pattern moving forward.

We’ll likely continue to see wild swings in the operational guidance over the next couple weeks. That’s common during big pattern transitions. The most intriguing item longer term will be if we can get the MJO into a more amplified state, and, if so, into the traditional cold phases to close December and open January. Much more on that later…

Updated 09.24.22 @ 5a

In the short-term, all eyes will remain on the eastern Gulf and up the eastern seaboard, but what does the broader, long range picture tell?

First, despite the cooler start to the month on deck, we continue to believe the balance of October will run above normal. The idea here is that the blocking pattern, in part, responsible for the seasonably cool open to October, will break down and give way to an expanding ridge over the northern tier, including the Great Lakes region. This idea has been long standing from our summer analog research, and is reinforced by Thursday’s European and JMA Weekly update below.

At the surface, this leads to widespread warmer than normal temperatures across the Plains and to a lesser extent into the Mid-Atlantic states. Now, it’s important to understand “normals” are starting to fall faster around this time of year. While likely done with the 90s until next spring, a couple days of upper 70s to lower 80s are still likely with such a pattern, locally, deep into October this year.

It’s also a drier pattern when compared to normal.

As is always the case, we have to pay attention to potential forecast “wreckers.” The wild card in this long range forecast is the MJO. Should the MJO amplify into Phase 5-6, cooler temperatures would be favored across the eastern 1/3 of the country, including here on the home front. As of now, longer range guidance isn’t terribly excited with blowing the MJO into that more amplified state, but is something we’ll still watch carefully moving forward.

As it stands now, it’s nice to see a larger plan working out about as expected from back in the summer. Next up, time to see if the fast start to winter is the right idea as we rumble deeper into November and beyond…

Updated 05.11.22 @ 6a

I. Even in “boring” patterns as a whole, there’s excitement to be found. That isn’t more evident than what we’ll notice today as a “back door” front will blow into the state. Before the front arrives from the east (hence, back door), dew points in the low to middle 70s (jungle-like feel) will combine with temperatures in the mid-80s to push heat indices into the 90° range. By mid-afternoon, we’ll note a wind shift taking hold from the east and a much more comfortable airmass oozing into the state from Ohio. This transition in air masses could spark an afternoon shower or thunderstorm- especially around Indy and points east.

II. After Wednesday’s “excitement,” generally quiet weather will be with us to close out the work week. That will begin to change as we rumble into the weekend. A series of fronts will sweep through the area Saturday (image 1 below) and again Monday (image 2 below). Each of these will deliver a smattering of showers and storms (splash and dash variety), focusing in on Saturday afternoon and Sunday evening into Monday morning for greatest overall coverage. On average, area rain gauges likely accumulate between 0.40” and 0.60” between the (2) systems.

III. The MJO will, undoubtedly, have big impacts on our late May pattern. After remaining in the null phase for the better part of the past few weeks, things are getting quite amplified. What’s most interesting though is the difference between the way the GEFS and European handle things post 5/18. Do we circle back into Phase 7 (would extend the threat of cooler than normal temperatures, locally) or roll into Phase 8 (a warmer pattern for the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley)? Stay tuned. We continue to believe the more transitional regime is most likely as we push into Memorial Day…

Updated 09.27.21 @ 7:43a

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