Category: Typhoon Rule

VIDEO: Improving Conditions To Close The Work Week; Changeable Week Ahead…

Updated 09.23.21 @ 7:44a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/09/23/video-improving-conditions-to-close-the-work-week-changeable-week-ahead/

Cool 6-10 Day Period Ahead, But Then What?

A strong cold front will sweep through the area tomorrow and help usher in the coolest air so far this autumn. This will set the tone, combined with the recurving WPAC typhoon, for a chilly upcoming 6-10 day period, but what lies beyond this period later in the month?

Recurving Super Typhoon Hagibis will promote reinforcing chill across our area next week.

We turn to a couple of our more trusted teleconnections for advice.

Note the PNA “bobbing” up and down through the medium range period, with more of a negative look around the 20th. This argues for a milder stretch of weather around that time. (Further out, we’ll keep close eyes on the PNA to see if a more consistent positive signal develops as we inch closer to November).

The EPO pops strongly positive mid month which, too, argues for milder times, locally. That said, similar to the PNA above, the EPO is trending towards a scenario that would present colder times as we rumble towards November. We’ll monitor for consistency.

To no surprise, given the two primary teleconnection drivers above (remember these can change as the seasons evolve), we see the pattern set to turn milder just beyond Day 10. Note the strong agreement between the European, Canadian, and GFS ensemble data below.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/10/cool-6-10-day-period-ahead-but-then-what/

VIDEO: Frosty Weekend? Talking WPAC Typhoon Impacts Downstream…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/07/video-frosty-weekend-talking-wpac-typhoon-impacts-downstream/

VIDEO: Severe Weather Event Tonight; A Lot Of “Noise” With Regard To The Late August Pattern…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/12/video-severe-weather-event-tonight-a-lot-of-noise-with-regard-to-the-late-august-pattern/

VIDEO: “Hint” Of Fall Served Up Later Next Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/02/video-hint-of-fall-served-up-later-next-week/

VIDEO: Looking At The Medium-Longer Term…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/26/video-looking-at-the-medium-longer-term/

Tuesday Evening Video Update…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/17/tuesday-evening-video-update-4/

A Word On Early September…

First and foremost, I’ll apologize in advance for a lack of posts today and go ahead and apologize for the same tomorrow.  We’ve been incredibly busy over the past couple days and as a result posting has (and will be) out of schedule until mid week.

We wanted to briefly touch on early September with this post.  (This isn’t our September forecast, as that will be posted by the end of the week).

Speaking of September, we’ve always had September as a warmer than normal month.  Despite the warm September forecast, we did initially think we may have a 2-3 day period in early September that would feature yet another pop of cooler than normal air.  That’s speaking specifically at the period around 9.3-9.5 (give or take a day or two) and after a warmer than normal stretch this weekend into early next week.  (By the way, after a warm September, we think things turn cold rather fast in October and November, but that’s for another day).

The reasoning behind our thinking of a few days of cooler air in the 9.3-9.5 time frame was from the overall pattern that is leading to Typhoon Atsani recurving in the western north Pacific.  It’s important to note that it isn’t the recurving typhoon itself, but the overall pattern that provides a good hint at what’s ahead downstream 6-10 days later- be it ridging or the tendency for “troughiness.”

wp1715However, modeling has been trending towards Atsani stalling in the north Pacific and even some data likes to drift the system northwest over time through the upcoming weekend before significant weakening.

gefs_WP17_current

 

 

Atsani

The end result here?  Much less emphasis on cool and attention that turns to a rather lengthy period of warmer than normal temperatures through the month of September, including early September.

ecm_eps_z500a_conus_11Much more later!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/24/a-word-on-early-september/

Monday Weather Notebook…

*We’re going to begin posting a discussion going into more detail around the what and why of the seven day forecast in the mornings, followed by the actual updated 7-day…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/17/monday-weather-notebook/

At Odds With Some Of The Modeling In The Mid/ Long Range…

Right off the bat, we tend to lean more in the direction of the 12z GFS and its’ associated cooler look next week, rather than the warm European. It’s a…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/16/at-odds-with-some-of-the-modeling-in-the-mid-long-range/

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