You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Category: Tropics
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-unsettled-weather-continues-today-before-drier-air-arrives-into-the-1st-half-of-the-weekend-busy-open-to-august-on-deck/
Jul 21
Another Round Of Storms Inbound Tonight (Some Strong); Tropics Heat Up; Active Pattern To Close July-Open August…
I. A round of strong (and locally severe) storms blew through north-central parts of the state earlier this afternoon and as we write this, yet another batch of storms is erupting across IL. These storms should hold together into central IN late evening (targeting a 8p-11p arrival west to east) and a few could become severe. Ingredients in place favor strong, damaging wind gusts with the stronger cells, but there’s also the opportunity for a quick spin-up tornado. Torrential downpours can be expected with any and all storms. It’ll be wise to keep tabs on the local radar this evening.
II. As can be expected the deeper into summer we go, the tropics become more active. That’s certainly been the case over the past couple days and all indications continue to point towards a particularly “robust” season as late summer gives way to fall. Interests to the Gulf Coast beaches and Carolina coast should pay close attention to the tropical outlooks in the coming weeks and months. Unfortunately, conditions seem ripe for the opportunity of a few major hurricanes this season, especially when you combine the SST profile with the tendency for the MJO to spend time in Phases 2-3.
In the shorter term, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping close tabs on the Gulf as well as newly formed TD 7.
III. Overall upper pattern strongly suggests we can expect a very active close to July and open to August. Between next week and the first few days of August, we’re tracking 3 cold fronts that will help to beat back the heat and serve up above normal rainfall through the period (not to mention threat of additional strong to severe storms).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/another-round-of-storms-inbound-tonight-some-strong-tropics-heat-up-active-pattern-to-close-july-open-august/
Jul 16
Thursday Evening Long Range Update: Late Summer And Early Autumn Pattern On The Horizon…
As we traverse the “dog days” of summer and look ahead to early autumn, what does the overall pattern hold? As is typical this time of year, the tropics are on the verge of becoming much more active, as well. Given analogs and other drivers, we suggest those with plans to the Gulf or Carolina beaches pay particularly close attention to the developments in the coming weeks and couple of months ahead.
The short-term is, obviously, highlighted by unseasonably warm-hot conditions but there’s reason to buy into the ‘mean’ ridge position retrograding west prior to month’s end. The large majority of long range data shows this taking place, as well.
Note the way the new European Weeklies, CFSv2 Weeklies, and JMA Weeklies handle this evolution in similar fashion over the coming 2-3 weeks.
The screaming message is that the period of heat this weekend into early next week will transition west by the 2nd half of next week and into the Week 2 time period. Furthermore, though not saying there can’t be periods of “transient” heat still yet the remainder of the summer, the bulk of the sustained heat should be behind us once to the middle of next week.
Additionally, data is bullish on a wet close to July. This makes sense with the northwest flow aloft.
As the crucial late-summer stretch hits and harvest season is on the horizon, there’s reason to believe a favorable precipitation pattern should persist- if not potentially a bit wetter than normal. The wildcard, of course, as is typically the case has to do with the tropics. It only takes 1 or 2 tropical systems with the “right” inland track to provide heavy rains into the inland regions and there’s many reasons to buy into the fact this will be quite a busy “heart” of the tropical season this year. We’ll have to handle those as they come, as the steering currents can vary in significant fashion and there’s no way to accurately pinpoint inland areas most at risk of late-summer/ early fall heavy rain events from these tropical threats. Certainly, if your plans take you down to the beautiful Gulf Coast or Carolina beaches, it’ll be important to pay close attention to the developments and goings on as the season matures…
Stay tuned as we continue to move forward. In addition to our August Outlook, we’ll have more on where we believe the pattern is heading this fall and winter in the coming weeks…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-evening-long-range-update-late-summer-and-early-autumn-pattern-on-the-horizon/
Jun 10
VIDEO: One More Tropical-Like Day With Storms Before A Blast Of Drier, Cooler Air…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-one-more-tropical-like-day-with-storms-before-a-blast-of-drier-cooler-air/
Jun 08
Dealing With Outer Bands Of Cristobal’s Remnants Tomorrow; Different Long Range Pattern Driver From What We’ve Known…
There are really two big topics to discuss this evening, including the immediate term being dominated by Cristobal’s remnants and a change of guard at the driver’s seat in the…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/dealing-with-outer-bands-of-cristobals-remnants-tomorrow-different-long-range-pattern-driver-from-what-weve-known/