Highlights:
- Moderating temperatures
- Not impressed with rain amounts with our front
- Much cooler weekend
Lots Of Sunshine; Significantly Cooler Weekend…In the short-term, high pressure will supply central IN with a beautiful Tuesday, complete with pleasant conditions and lots of sunshine.
Moisture will begin to return Wednesday with an increasingly moist feel to the air mass as the day progresses. An isolated shower is possible, especially across western portions of the state, but most of the region should remain rain-free.
Our next opportunity of rain comes Friday as a cold front moves in to close the work week. As of now, we’re not impressed with rainfall amounts as the front crosses the state. Our wind will shift to the NW and turn gusty Saturday with much cooler air pouring into the region. A nice cool, crisp, autumn weekend awaits. The season’s coolest air thus far will greet us over the weekend.
In the tropics, Hurricane Matthew remains at the forefront. Those who live along the East Coast (from the FL peninsula all the way up the eastern seaboard) should keep a close eye on forecasts and data over the next few days.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″
2.) HRRR futurecast radar delivers thunderstorms into central IN around the lunchtime hour.
3.) Scattered thunderstorms remain Thursday (some strong to severe), but drier air will briefly push in across the northern half of the region Friday. We think from Indianapolis and points north, it’ll be a very pleasant end to the work week. That said, “briefly” is the key word. Moisture will surge north again Saturday and Sunday and isolated to scattered storms will follow suit.
4.) Attention next week will shift to the tropics. There are many more questions than answers at this point, but understand the potential is there for significant tropical troubles next week. Intensity and track are far from etched in stone, but if your travels take you to the Gulf Coast, we suggest you remain abreast of the latest developments- particularly the southeastern FL coast and the north-central Gulf Coast.
No doubt about it, today will be very wet across the entire region, including periods of heavy rain- especially across the western half of the state.
Tropical moisture will continue to stream into the state tonight into Tuesday. In fact, most intense rains will likely set up tonight and may feature “banding” signatures that would train over the same areas. Within these intense rain bands, prolific rainfall rates can be expected, enhancing the flash flood risk. Latest short-term model data shows this threat, and would place a premium focus on areas generally west of US-31. We’ll have to keep a close eye on things.
Plenty of “juice” is available to tap into across western sections tonight. Precipitable water values (PWATs) of 2″-2.5″ will be more than enough to fuel torrential rainfall.
Eventually (mid and late week), we’ll dry things out and a significant cool down is still in store developing this weekend into early next week. Lows will fall deep into the 50s with highs only in the 70s. Talk about an early taste of fall…
Despite lackluster model output from our American suite (latest NAM and SREF data, for instance, paints rainfall totals under 1″ across most central IN neighborhoods), the European remains consistent on the evolution of things from this weekend into the middle of next week. We’ll lean more towards it’s solution at this juncture. Simply put, when you have a stalled frontal boundary entraining tropical moisture, expect problems. Precipitable water values will approach and even exceed 2″ at times this weekend. Dew points will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s along and south of the boundary. Where the boundary stalls will be key in determining the heaviest rain totals and resulting flood problems that will ensue. For now, here’s the best idea we have in regards to local 4″+ totals between this weekend and next Wednesday.
It should also be pointed out that we’re not looking at all day rains Saturday through Wednesday, but instead “waves” of moisture throughout the period. Areas of locally heavy rain will be with us, but we’ll also see dry periods in between. Thankfully, as we move into the latter portions of next week, drier times should return.