Category: Tropics

Sep 30

Times, They Are A Changing…

Screen Shot 2015-09-30 at 7.14.53 AMHighlights:

  • Much cooler and breezy for mid week
  • Windy, chilly, and wet end to the week
  • Drier early next week

A complicated series of events will lead to a memorable week/ weekend of weather along the eastern seaboard.  Between the cold front that moved through here last night, Joaquin (well on it’s way to becoming a hurricane this morning), and energy that moved out of the Gulf of Mexico, the eastern seaboard is in for a major flood event, and long duration wind/ beach erosion event.

Before we discuss potential impacts closer to home, let’s talk the short term.  Showers will continue to push south this morning and a dry, breezy, and cooler day is coming.  Thursday will be breezy and cool, but dry also.

It’s when we get to the weekend that things begin to shift.  We know windy and chilly conditions are a given this weekend (you can take that to the bank).  We caution that much fine tuning will be required as we progress through the next couple days in regards to rainfall.  Here’s our best stab as of this morning.

1.) Showers pinwheel west Friday afternoon and evening as east winds strengthen- gusts 25-30 MPH.

2.) Steadier rains fall Saturday and Sunday with east and northeast winds gusting to 30-40 MPH.

3.) Steady rains diminish and give way to scattered showers Monday before we’re back to dry weather Tuesday.  Winds also begin to diminish during this period, but gusts to 20-30 MPH are still possible Monday out of the north.

Stay tuned, as the rainfall forecast is still up for much debate and will have to be fine tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/09/30/times-they-are-a-changing/

Sep 29

Windy And MUCH Cooler; What About Rain Chances?

All eyes remain focused on Joaquin this evening and the eventual impacts dealt to the eastern seaboard, and, at least indirectly, back into the Ohio Valley.  Latest satellite imagery this…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/09/29/windy-and-much-cooler-what-about-rain-chances/

Sep 28

Weekly Highlights: Tropical Weather Headlines…

Highlights928104There’s a whole slew of new products we’re going to start rolling out over the next several weeks, including more videos, as well.  One of the new features is a nationwide weekly highlight map, helping showcase the big-ticket weather items that have our attention over the upcoming week.  While we could side with going with fancy graphics, we chose to go the route of a hand drawn map for old time sakes.  🙂 This will be posted on Sunday or Monday of each week.

1.) A cold front will move through the Mid West and Ohio Valley during the early to middle portion of the work week and be responsible for putting a temporary delay in #harvest15.  While rainfall won’t be particularly heavy, it’ll help to serve up a fresh chill to the air as we progress from mid to late week.  A significant temperature reversal can be expected from 10-15 degrees above normal to 10 degrees below normal from early week to late week.

2.)  A tropical disturbance is plaguing the Gulf Coastal waters with rough surf, gusty winds, and heavy rain to open the week.  As this disturbance moves northeast, heavy rains will encompass a large portion of the southeast, as well as southern and central Appalachians, on up the eastern seaboard.

3.)  Perhaps of more importance is the way things evolve over the coming couple days with TD 11 and the overall weather pattern off the eastern seaboard.  If you live along the East Coast, you’ll want to pay particularly close attention to the goings on.  At the very least, an impactful system is ahead from a heavy rain and erosion perspective, but there’s also the potential of something more severe from a purely tropical stand point.

4.)  An area of low pressure will drop south along the Front Range late in the period and offer up beneficial moisture to not only the Front Range, but the central Plains.

As always, you can follow us on Twitter (@indywx) or e-mail us at bill@indywx.com for more on the variety of weather consulting we provide.  Have a great day and God Bless!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/09/28/weekly-highlights-tropical-weather-headlines/

Sep 24

Clouding Up; Saturday Showers Arrive…

Screen Shot 2015-09-24 at 10.23.01 PMHighlights:

  • Clouds increase to wrap up the work week
  • Tropical connection courtesy of the Atlantic this weekend
  • Midweek cold front

An area of low pressure is slowly tracking north along the SC coast Thursday evening.  A surge of tropical moisture will retrograde (that’s for you, Rick ;-)) northwest and result in “showery” weather around these parts to open the weekend.  We’re not talking a lot of rain, but expect periodic wet times for central and southern portions of the state Saturday.  We’ll maintain mention of a shower Sunday, but Sunday will be the drier of the two days.

We’re back to “high and dry” early next week, but a weak frontal boundary will move through here late Wednesday with a broken band of showers.  Not everyone will see rain Wednesday.  Slightly cooler air will arrive late next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.30″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/09/24/clouding-up-saturday-showers-arrive/

Aug 27

Thursday Weather Notebook…

Cool and Dry:       We’re off to a cool start this morning with many reporting sites in the lower 50s. Note the cooler than normal air extends all the…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/27/thursday-weather-notebook-2/

Aug 26

Early Fall-Like Now, But Heat Builds…

Screen Shot 2015-08-26 at 11.04.49 PMHighlights:

  • Taste of early fall continues (for now)
  • Moisture slowly returns this weekend
  • Heat builds this weekend and grows hotter next week

After a couple days of variably cloudy skies, we should see more in the way of sunshine as we get set to wrap up the work week.  Conditions will remain unseasonably pleasant to be outdoors.

We’ll begin to transition to warmer and more humid times this weekend and with a disturbance nearby, an isolated to widely scattered shower or thunderstorm has to be included in our forecast.  Most should remain rain-free, however.

Overall dry and increasingly hot conditions will be the rule next week as ridging develops over the Great Lakes region.  Folks longing for more summer before fall truly sets in look to have their wish granted over the upcoming couple weeks ahead.

In the tropics, all eyes remain on Erika.  Though many questions remain, folks from the east coast of Florida up along the Southeast coast should remain abreast of the latest developments.  It’s likely Erika will go through a strengthening process over the next couple days.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/26/early-fall-like-now-but-heat-builds/

Jul 16

At Odds With Some Of The Modeling In The Mid/ Long Range…

Right off the bat, we tend to lean more in the direction of the 12z GFS and its’ associated cooler look next week, rather than the warm European. It’s a…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/16/at-odds-with-some-of-the-modeling-in-the-mid-long-range/

Jun 29

July Outlook

With only a few days left of June, thoughts are turning to the 4th of July holiday, getting those summer vacations taken care of before school starts back, and pre season football practice starting up.

June will finish as one of the wettest on record, and coming on the heels of a very dry May, we’re actually right where we should be from a year-to-date precipitation perspective.

Here are some highlights we’re focusing in on that’ll impact our July weather:

  • Highly amplified MJO
  • Very wet June through the Mid West/ Ohio Valley
  • Warm water off the East Coast
  • Persistent western ridging

June will finish as a top 5-10 wettest June on record for many communities throughout our immediate region. With the wet conditions, it’s very tough to get any sort of long-lasting truly hot weather and while we’re certain to have plenty of warm, humid days during the upcoming four weeks (it is July, after all), we don’t anticipate any sort of significant heat wave. We fully expect being able to save on cooling costs when compared to normal.  We also note a highly amplified MJO, or Madden-Julian oscillation.

In July, phases 6-7 are cool signals for our region.

  
 We note sea surface temperatures are quite warm off the eastern seaboard and in the Gulf of Mexico. While this doesn’t have a direct impact on our weather here in regards to temperature, it can suggest some southeast and eastern ridging at times. When we look at the upper air pattern below, we note the region will likely be in between predominant ridge positions east and west for July. The end result for our particular part of the country would be a cooler and continued unsettled time of things for the better part of July.


*As a side note, this sort of water profile does “raise an eyebrow” for potential tropical activity in the Gulf and potentially along the east coast, and that’s something that we’ll have to keep a close eye on as we progress into the heart of the season.

We sort through a variety of data to help build our weekly (client based) and monthly upper air charts. While we can’t share all of those forecast models here directly with you (due to licensing), a combination of GFS ensemble data, CFSv2, and European weeklies have helped us build this upper air pattern for July.

July2015UAThis would provide continued cooler than normal times (particularly daytime highs, considering the wet ground) and a busy time tracking cold fronts and individual disturbances that will ignite frequent showers and thunderstorms.

“Average” July weather for IND includes mid 80s for highs, mid 60s for lows, and 4.5″ of rainfall.  In summary, we anticipate July 2015 to run 2-3 degrees below average and precipitation to run above normal by a couple inches.  We think we just keep on rolling down the tracks from the wet and active regime put into place in June.  Time will tell!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/29/july-outlook/

Jun 19

Friday Morning Rambles…

1.) A wet day is ahead for central & southern IN as the combination of a stalled front and Bill’s remnant moisture work in. Rain has already been heavy just…

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Jun 18

Thursday Evening Video Update…

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