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Category: Tropics
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/07/22/video-unsettled-weather-continues-today-before-drier-air-arrives-into-the-1st-half-of-the-weekend-busy-open-to-august-on-deck/
Jul 21
Another Round Of Storms Inbound Tonight (Some Strong); Tropics Heat Up; Active Pattern To Close July-Open August…
I. A round of strong (and locally severe) storms blew through north-central parts of the state earlier this afternoon and as we write this, yet another batch of storms is erupting across IL. These storms should hold together into central IN late evening (targeting a 8p-11p arrival west to east) and a few could become severe. Ingredients in place favor strong, damaging wind gusts with the stronger cells, but there’s also the opportunity for a quick spin-up tornado. Torrential downpours can be expected with any and all storms. It’ll be wise to keep tabs on the local radar this evening.
II. As can be expected the deeper into summer we go, the tropics become more active. That’s certainly been the case over the past couple days and all indications continue to point towards a particularly “robust” season as late summer gives way to fall. Interests to the Gulf Coast beaches and Carolina coast should pay close attention to the tropical outlooks in the coming weeks and months. Unfortunately, conditions seem ripe for the opportunity of a few major hurricanes this season, especially when you combine the SST profile with the tendency for the MJO to spend time in Phases 2-3.
In the shorter term, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping close tabs on the Gulf as well as newly formed TD 7.
III. Overall upper pattern strongly suggests we can expect a very active close to July and open to August. Between next week and the first few days of August, we’re tracking 3 cold fronts that will help to beat back the heat and serve up above normal rainfall through the period (not to mention threat of additional strong to severe storms).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/07/21/another-round-of-storms-inbound-tonight-some-strong-tropics-heat-up-active-pattern-to-close-july-open-august/
Jul 16
Thursday Evening Long Range Update: Late Summer And Early Autumn Pattern On The Horizon…
As we traverse the “dog days” of summer and look ahead to early autumn, what does the overall pattern hold? As is typical this time of year, the tropics are on the verge of becoming much more active, as well. Given analogs and other drivers, we suggest those with plans to the Gulf or Carolina beaches pay particularly close attention to the developments in the coming weeks and couple of months ahead.
The short-term is, obviously, highlighted by unseasonably warm-hot conditions but there’s reason to buy into the ‘mean’ ridge position retrograding west prior to month’s end. The large majority of long range data shows this taking place, as well.
Note the way the new European Weeklies, CFSv2 Weeklies, and JMA Weeklies handle this evolution in similar fashion over the coming 2-3 weeks.
The screaming message is that the period of heat this weekend into early next week will transition west by the 2nd half of next week and into the Week 2 time period. Furthermore, though not saying there can’t be periods of “transient” heat still yet the remainder of the summer, the bulk of the sustained heat should be behind us once to the middle of next week.
Additionally, data is bullish on a wet close to July. This makes sense with the northwest flow aloft.
As the crucial late-summer stretch hits and harvest season is on the horizon, there’s reason to believe a favorable precipitation pattern should persist- if not potentially a bit wetter than normal. The wildcard, of course, as is typically the case has to do with the tropics. It only takes 1 or 2 tropical systems with the “right” inland track to provide heavy rains into the inland regions and there’s many reasons to buy into the fact this will be quite a busy “heart” of the tropical season this year. We’ll have to handle those as they come, as the steering currents can vary in significant fashion and there’s no way to accurately pinpoint inland areas most at risk of late-summer/ early fall heavy rain events from these tropical threats. Certainly, if your plans take you down to the beautiful Gulf Coast or Carolina beaches, it’ll be important to pay close attention to the developments and goings on as the season matures…
Stay tuned as we continue to move forward. In addition to our August Outlook, we’ll have more on where we believe the pattern is heading this fall and winter in the coming weeks…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/07/16/thursday-evening-long-range-update-late-summer-and-early-autumn-pattern-on-the-horizon/
Jun 10
VIDEO: One More Tropical-Like Day With Storms Before A Blast Of Drier, Cooler Air…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/10/video-one-more-tropical-like-day-with-storms-before-a-blast-of-drier-cooler-air/
Jun 08
Dealing With Outer Bands Of Cristobal’s Remnants Tomorrow; Different Long Range Pattern Driver From What We’ve Known…
There are really two big topics to discuss this evening, including the immediate term being dominated by Cristobal’s remnants and a change of guard at the driver’s seat in the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/08/dealing-with-outer-bands-of-cristobals-remnants-tomorrow-different-long-range-pattern-driver-from-what-weve-known/
Jun 07
Cristobal Makes Landfall; Takes Aim On Midwest. Discussing Central Indiana Impacts…
Tropical Storm Cristobal made landfall along the southeast LA coastline just after 6p eastern time as a 50 MPH storm. The upcoming 48-72 hours will feature Cristobal moving north and impacting the MS Valley, Midwest, and Great Lakes region. This evening we wanted to spend a bit more time focusing on the impacts of Cristobal’s remnants across central Indiana.
Monday- Dry conditions will persist along with plentiful sunshine and warm temperatures. We anticipate highs will top out in the middle to upper 80s with a partly cloudy sky that will likely feature increased mid-high level cloudiness across southwestern IN late day. This is in association with the expanding high level cloud canopy associated with Cristobal. An easterly flow will maintain low dew points and a very refreshing airmass to open the week (stark contrast compared to what awaits Tuesday).
Tuesday- Cristobal’s remnant circulation will continue to track north up the MS River Valley. Indiana will begin to experience some of the outer bands by the afternoon and evening hours. While the remnant circulation will remain well to our west (along with the more concentrated, heavy rain), these outer rain bands will be capable of producing torrential rain and could also produce a couple of quick, spin-up tornadoes (not uncommon with landfalling tropical systems). It’ll be important to remain weather-aware across the entire state Tuesday (more specifically during the afternoon and early evening across central Indiana). Tuesday will, by far, be the hottest day over the upcoming (10) days, including highs flirting with 90º and dews in the lower to middle 70s. Can you say “tropical?!”
Wednesday- The day will start very humid as the rich, tropical moisture continues to take up residence across the western Ohio Valley, but changes loom. We can expect a “smattering” of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the 1st of 2 frontal boundaries that will sweep through the region during the 2nd half of the week. MUCH LESS HUMID air will sweep into the area Wednesday evening. This will be a precursor to a much less humid and cooler weekend ahead.
How Much Rain Are We Talking? As you can see, the bulk of the heavy rain will remain well to our west and closer to the immediate remnant circulation of Cristobal. We expect rainfall amounts between 0.25″ and 0.50″ in the outer rain bands across central Indiana Tuesday into Wednesday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/07/cristobal-makes-landfall-takes-aim-on-midwest-discussing-central-indiana-impacts/
Jun 07
VIDEO: Tracking Cristobal’s Remnant Moisture; Two Late Week Cold Fronts Usher In A Refreshing Feel…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/07/video-tracking-cristobals-remnant-moisture-two-late-week-cold-fronts-usher-in-a-refreshing-feel/
Jun 05
VIDEO: Turning Less Humid This Weekend; More On Remnant Tropical Moisture And A Cool Mid-June…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/05/video-turning-less-humid-this-weekend-more-on-remnant-tropical-moisture-and-a-cool-mid-june/
Jun 04
VIDEO: How Cristobal May Indirectly Influence Our Weather Next Week; Cooler Pattern Builds In For Mid-Month…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/04/video-how-cristobal-may-indirectly-influence-our-weather-next-week-cooler-pattern-builds-in-for-mid-month/
Jun 03
Midweek Storms; Still Eyeing Less Humid Conditions This Weekend…
Most of our Wednesday will be rain and storm free with a very warm and tropical feel. Don’t let this lull you in to letting your guard down as storms are expected to still erupt to our north late afternoon before rumbling south into central Indiana this evening.
The biggest concern with this storm complex will be centered on the threat of damaging straight line winds as embedded lines of storms may “bow out” on their journey south this evening. Additionally, large hail will also be possible with a few of the storms. As such, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to include the heart of the state (and the Ohio Valley for that matter) in a Slight Risk of severe weather today.
A good chunk of the region can expect 0.50″ to 1″ of rain this evening with locally heavier totals.
As we look ahead to the weekend, a front will sweep through the state and usher in a much less humid air mass Saturday night into early parts of next week. Sunday and Monday mornings should feature lows back into the upper 50s for most of central Indiana. Additionally, we’ll continue to keep close eyes on Tropical Storm Cristobal in the Gulf. There’s still the potential Cristobal’s remnant moisture will get entrained with an approaching cold front the middle to latter part of next week, leading to the threat of locally heavy rain across the MS Valley and parts of the Mid West and Ohio Valley. We’ll be able to become more specific as time draws closer.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/03/midweek-storms-still-eyeing-less-humid-conditions-this-weekend/