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Category: Tropics
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/08/28/video-quick-start-to-a-fall-like-feel-this-year/
Aug 27
Long Range Update: Meteorological Fall Opens On A Very Active Note…
Before we dive into our latest long range discussion, Laura continues to track north this morning through western Louisiana, and remains a category 2 as of the latest update (5a eastern time). Our thoughts and prayers are with all of those affected by Laura as they wake up this morning and begin to see the horror left behind from this beast of a storm.
Laura will take a hard “right” turn Friday and deliver gusty winds and heavy rain to the TN Valley and into the mid-Atlantic through the weekend.
We won’t deal with any impacts from Laura’s remnants up this far north, but we will increase coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity now through Saturday evening. This is thanks to a warm, sultry airmass in place along with an approaching cold front. As that boundary drives through the region Saturday evening, a much drier airmass will arrive for the 2nd half of the weekend.
Rainfall amounts between this afternoon through Saturday afternoon should top out between 0.50″ and 1″ for most, but there will be localized 1″ to 2″ totals in the heavier storms.
Friday will also pose a severe weather threat across the state, including the potential of damaging straight line winds as a couple “bowing” segments that move from the upper Midwest into the central Ohio Valley.
As we look ahead, we’re tracking 3 significant cold fronts between now and September 10th:
I. Aug. 29th
II. Sept. 3rd
III. Sept. 10th
Each of these cold fronts will be capable of producing strong storms and locally heavy rain, and behind each boundary, the air will grow cooler and cooler. While “transitional” warmth (relative to normal) is likely ahead of the boundaries, the first 1/3 of September should run cooler than normal across our region. Things also looks MUCH wetter than normal through the upcoming couple of weeks- a byproduct of the busy nature of the pattern.
Note how the latest JMA Weeklies are also similar handling the pattern (we’ll take the week-by-week snap shots into our video a bit later) over the upcoming 3-4 weeks:
One more item of note, the tropics aren’t done, unfortunately. There should be another hurricane threat in the medium to longer range period (early September) and early thoughts here include that threat centering more on the East Coast vs. the Gulf.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/08/27/long-range-update-meteorological-fall-opens-on-a-very-active-note/
Aug 26
Detailed Look At Laura And Early Thoughts On Labor Day Weekend…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/08/26/detailed-look-at-laura-and-early-thoughts-on-labor-day-weekend/
Aug 25
VIDEO: Details Around What Should Become Major Hurricane Laura; Reviewing Our Pattern Into Mid-September…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/08/25/video-details-around-what-should-become-major-hurricane-laura-reviewing-our-pattern-into-mid-september/
Aug 24
VIDEO: Heat And Humidity Returns; More Organized Rain Chances Increase Late Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/08/24/video-heat-and-humidity-returns-more-organized-rain-chances-increase-late-week/
Aug 23
VIDEO: All Eyes On Marco And Laura…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/08/23/video-all-eyes-on-marco-and-laura/
Aug 22
Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…
I. Tropics claim headlines this week.
II. Summer-like temperatures and humidity returns.
Forecast Period: 08.22.20 through 08.29.20
A historic tropical event is likely to impact the Gulf of Mexico this week as not one, but two named tropical systems (likely both hurricanes) track north, northwest and target the central and western Gulf Coast. While additional fluctuations in the ultimate track and subsequent point of landfall can be expected over the next couple of days, confidence is increasing on the likelihood of 2 hurricanes making landfall within 36-48 hours of each other somewhere from the MS coast to the LA and TX coast. This won’t only be a coastal issue, but quickly grow into a big inland flood situation for the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley as we get into the middle and latter parts of the week.
Back home, a much more typical summer-like regime can be expected this week, including a return of heat and humidity. While splash and dash coverage of storms is expected Sunday evening into Monday, most of the upcoming week looks rain-free, at least until late week. That’s when a stronger cold front will take aim on the region and increase shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday into Friday. To add further complexity into the equation, we’ll also have to monitor the remnant tropical moisture moving north, as it’s still possible some of this moisture gets entangled with the cold front. Whether or not this is the case or not is yet to be seen and will be the cause of great whaling and gnashing of teeth this week. Regardless, unlike with some tropical remnants, the upper pattern supports a fairly quick movement of the remnants once to midweek, so that would greatly limit flooding potential up this far north.
The early call on next weekend is for a drier regime to begin building in.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/08/22/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-19/
Aug 22
VIDEO: Mostly Dry Weekend; Tropics Remain A Big Focus…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/08/22/video-mostly-dry-weekend-tropics-remain-a-big-focus/
Aug 21
VIDEO: Detailed Tropical Discussion Into Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/08/21/video-detailed-tropical-discussion-into-next-week/
Aug 20
Long Range Update: Closing Out August And Welcoming In Meteorological Fall…
The upcoming couple of weeks will be dominated by the tropics grabbing the headlines, but our more immediate weather pattern will become interesting, as well.
In short, the medium to long range pattern will be controlled by the MJO. We think the upcoming 7 days will feature increased heat and humidity (more typical of late-August standards), but as the MJO rumbles into Phase 2, a period of cooler air will arrive around the last couple of days of the month, or first few days of September (subject to change by a day or two from this distance).
This supports the flip back to warmth next week and paves way for at least a transient period of cool next weekend or the following week:
Sure enough, that’s where the models are going over the next 2-3 weeks:
The early call on Labor Day weekend is for a cooler than normal feel.
The precipitation pattern favors a wet look with Phase 1 (closing August and opening September) followed by a shift east in the wettest anomalies in Phase 2 (early to mid September).
The European Weeklies show a similar look:
The wild card here has to do with how long we stay in Phase 2 (if we stay longer, cooler risks will present themselves for September) vs. going into the wheelhouse and allowing other drivers to take control. More on what lies ahead September, as a whole, in the coming days… One thing’s for sure and that’s the likelihood the tropics remain hyperactive into mid-September.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/08/20/long-range-update-closing-out-august-and-welcoming-in-meteorological-fall/