Mar 04
Updated 03.04.24 @ 8a We couldn’t ask for better weather conditions to kick off the work week. Sunshine and unseasonably warm conditions will have several central Indiana neighborhoods flirting with…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/04/video-flirting-with-record-warmth-today-tracking-2-storms-this-week/
Mar 03
Updated 03.03.24 @ 8:19a
A gorgeous Sunday is on deck with highs rising into the 60s and near 70° west. Enjoy that sunshine while we’ve got it!
Dry conditions should prevail through the daytime hours Monday before showers and embedded thunder roll into town overnight and Tuesday morning. Unsettled conditions will hold through the day Tuesday.
Rainfall totals of 0.25” to 0.75” will be common by Tuesday night across the region.
The next low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will impact us Friday into Saturday. Look for a more widespread, heavier round of precipitation with this particular system as we close the work week.
Despite cooler shots of air flowing in briefly behind frontal passages, there’s no sustained below normal temperature regime on the horizon, and for good reason with this kind of MJO:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/03/sunday-morning-rambles-tracking-2-systems-this-week-and-more-unseasonably-warm-conditions-ahead/
Feb 29
Updated 02.29.24 @ 5:13a
Tomorrow we’ll welcome in meteorological spring and the first couple weeks of March appear to continue the unseasonably warm trend. At times, additional warm records will likely fall.
This is strongly correlated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation highly amplified in the classic warm phases this time of year. (You can absolutely say goodbye to any sort of sustained cold prospects this time of year with the MJO in phases 4, 5, and especially 6). Now, down the road, we’ll want to watch and see if we can maintain this amplitude and rumble into the transitional colder Phase 7 before a potential opportunity to see cold grow more impressive should we *finally get into Phase 8 late month. Remember that we made an attempt at that back in mid-February before things instead collapsed into the neutral phase. Moral of the story for folks longing for one more bout of sustained cold prior to the warmer months ahead, “don’t hold your breath.” The trend certainly isn’t your friend.
Back to the present. No matter what the teleconnections say, an amplified MJO will always win out. And the current MJO forecast to roll through the phases listed above screams that our recent warm times will “keep on keepin’ on” as we navigate the 1st half of March.
The Phase 5 and Phase 6 composite analogs at 500mb (upper air pattern) for an El Niño March:
What this should also result in is an active first half of the month, including above normal rainfall and likely at least another early season strong to severe weather event before we get to mid month.
It’s a classic pattern that should feature low pressure systems ejecting out of the Southwest and South-central into the Plains and western Great Lakes region. That puts our neck of the woods on the warm/ wet (and at times stormy) side of the equation.
As we move into late-March and early April, we’ll have our eyes focused on the MJO and whether or not we can, indeed, get into those traditionally colder phases. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/29/long-range-report-warm-open-to-meteorological-spring-mjo-and-nao-impacts-longer-term/
Feb 28
Updated 02.28.24 @ 7:44a Today will serve as a reminder we are still in winter, after all, but another quick warm-up will get underway as we head through the weekend…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/28/video-sharply-colder-today-before-a-quick-warm-up-no-let-up-to-the-warm-pattern-down-the-road/
Feb 27
Updated 02.27.24 @ 5:58a An unseasonably warm and quiet daytime will take a stormy turn tonight. All modes of severe weather are in play late evening and into the overnight,…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/27/video-severe-weather-expected-this-evening-and-overnight-sharply-colder-wednesday/
Feb 26
Updated 02.26.24 @ 5:51p
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the ‘marginal’ risk area within their Day 1 Outlook. This is for the potential of isolated strong cells developing later this evening and through the overnight (large hail being the biggest concern from any stronger cell that pops), but this shouldn’t be a widespread severe weather event by any stretch of the imagination.
The Day 2 Outlook remains largely unchanged from this morning across our immediate area.
Concern remains that all modes of severe weather will be realized across northern IL and northern IN Tuesday evening into the overnight.
We want to reiterate that the majority of the daytime should be void of any sort of significant rain or storms across the state. It’s after 7p, and more so after 9p, that we expect discrete cells to initialize and roll across northern IN. These discrete cells will be capable of rotating (TOR potential remains), but also have the potential of damaging winds and large hail. The most widespread of evening convection should be focused north of the city, itself, but we’ll keep a close eye on tonight’s and Tuesday morning’s data.
We continue to believe a more pronounced squall line will march east across the state, including central and southern Indiana, during the overnight and predawn hours and it’s with this line that an elevated damaging wind threat will be hoisted. Timing this threat out features the 2a to 5a Wednesday time block from west to east. We recommend reviewing your severe weather safety plan and have a means of receiving the latest warning information should they be issued.
Showers and embedded thunder will remain widespread through the early morning hours before pushing off to our east by mid morning. By this time, we’ll be trending sharply colder (temperatures will fall off the cliff Wednesday morning), drier, but very windy.
Predawn highs around 60° Wednesday will be shaved by 30° by late morning along with a biting northwesterly wind gusting 30-40 MPH.
High pressure will deliver a colder, but sunny Thursday before a weak system delivers a return of clouds and light (insignificant) showers to close the work week.
The weekend continues to look mighty nice, including a quick rebound in the mercury and another taste of spring ahead of our next approaching storm early next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/26/monday-evening-thoughts-on-tonight-wednesday/
Feb 26
Updated 02.26.24 @ 7:30a We’ll go from “chamber of commerce” type weather to open the work week, including pushing for a record high later this afternoon, to rounds of storms…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/26/video-forecasting-record-warmth-today-timing-out-rounds-of-storms-late-tonight-wednesday-am/
Feb 25
Updated 02.25.24 @ 7:55a
Though a bit earlier than usual this year, it’s time to “dust off” our dedicated weekly post aimed solely at looking at the potential of severe weather in the week ahead. You can expect this to be posted each Sunday morning moving forward through the spring and summer before sunsetting for another year come late September.
Forecast period: 02.25.24 through 03.03.24
The “headliner” system in the forecast period is an area of low pressure tracking into the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday (02.27 and 02.28). This will drag a trailing cold front through the Ohio Valley Wednesday morning into the afternoon (west to east).
The Storm Prediction Center includes most of the region in some sort of risk of severe weather Tuesday. The greatest risk of severe appears to include an area north and west of a rough line from Evansville northeast to Bloomington and Toledo, OH. While all modes of severe weather are in play, we remain most concerned for the threat of damaging straight line winds Tuesday PM.
Ingredients aren’t off the charts (rarely are this time of year), but parameters are sufficient enough to warrant the chance of strong to severe storms Tuesday into very early Wednesday morning before the cold front moves through the region and results in falling temperatures and a much more stable airmass engulfing the entire OHV through the day. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune specific timing of storms.
Beyond this point, an area of high pressure will settle overhead, resulting in a much more stable pattern to close the week and head through the weekend. Expect sunshine to return and another quick warm-up to get underway during this period. Highs will zoom back into the 60s next weekend.
Looking ahead, we’ll need to monitor the threat of another potential strong-severe storm window during the early to middle stages of next week. Far too early for specifics, but similar ingredients appear in play which isn’t shocking given the ‘mean’ upper air pattern shown to open this post. We also want to reiterate the above to well above average precipitation expected throughout meteorological spring. Image 3 above highlights the wet look over the upcoming couple weeks.
Upcoming Storm Dates to keep an eye on:
*10-day rainfall projection: 1.25″ – 2.25″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/25/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-45/
Feb 24
Updated 02.24.24 @ 8a Any lingering light snow showers will quickly come to an end this morning and we’ll welcome sunshine back into the picture later today. Sunday will feature…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/24/video-overall-strong-signal-for-unseasonable-warmth-remains-on-charts-into-early-march-watching-storms-early-next-week/
Feb 23
Updated 02.23.24 @ 7:34a
A fast moving clipper system will offer up a round of snow tonight across northern and central IN. Here’s our latest thinking with respect to accumulation numbers. Snow lovers, we recommend getting out to enjoy early Saturday as an increasingly powerful late February sun angle will have many asking “what snow?!” as early as the afternoon.
A quick warm-up is on deck for the 2nd half of the weekend and we’re eyeing the potential of a couple rounds of storms Tuesday. A few of these storms could become severe, with damaging straight line winds the biggest concern from this distance with any of the severe activity that potentially develops.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/23/video-tracking-snow-tonight-followed-by-a-quick-warm-up-and-storms-next-week/