Category: T-storms

Jul 08

Central Indiana Poised To Finally Cash In On Heavy Rains…

Updated 07.08.22 @ 7:30a

0.14″. That’s it in the rainfall department, officially recorded at IND, for the month so far. While several neighborhoods have seen much more rainfall than that, it reiterates just how dry it’s been here for most immediate central Indiana communities. In fact, we have to go all the way back to June 12th to find the last 24 hour period where IND recorded anything close to even half an inch of rain (0.49″).

With all of that said, a combination of ingredients should come together to finally allow a widespread chunk of central Indiana to accumulate hefty rain totals as we get set to close out the work week.

I. We have added forcing from a cold front and wave of low pressure that will move along the boundary as it sags south this evening. This will aid in helping more widespread coverage of rain and thunderstorms fire, especially as we progress into the afternoon and evening.

II. A truly tropical airmass engulfs the region this morning and this will remain in place until the cold front clears the area late tonight. Precipitable water values in excess of 2″ combined with dew points in the lower to middle 70s will allow rain and storms to feed off the juicy air this afternoon and evening. Rainfall rates of 2″+ per hour will be common in the heavier cells. Should storms train over the same areas, flash flooding will likely develop.

III. As the wave of low pressure moves across the state this afternoon and evening, it could help enhance the threat of severe weather, especially along and south of the I-70 corridor. A quick spin-up tornado isn’t out of the realm of possibility but the bigger severe threats appear to be from wet microbursts (damaging wind/ hail).

We anticipate many central Indiana neighborhoods to accumulate at least an inch of rain today with some communities seeing locally heavier totals. Again, where heavier cells train, localized flash flooding will develop.

Eventually the front will settle south and clear the state tonight. This will allow drier and MUCH less humid to return to the region just in time for the weekend. We expect plentiful sunshine, low humidity, and cooler temperatures to dominate through the day Monday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/07/08/central-indiana-poised-to-finally-cash-in-on-heavy-rains/

Jul 07

VIDEO: Fingers Crossed For More Widespread Rain Tomorrow; Longer Range Pattern Takes On A Drier, Warmer Than Average Look…

Updated 07.07.22 @ 8:42a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/07/07/video-fingers-crossed-for-more-widespread-rain-tomorrow-longer-range-pattern-takes-on-a-drier-warmer-than-average-look/

Jul 06

VIDEO: Looking At The 2nd Half Of The Week And Into Week 2…

Updated 07.06.22 @ 5:05p

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/07/06/video-looking-at-the-2nd-half-of-the-week-and-into-week-2/

Jul 05

And Then Came The Rain (And Storms)…

Updated 07.05.22 @ 7:58a

A very busy mid-summer pattern will take up residence through the remainder of the week. Multiple storm clusters will ride southeast into the region, some of which will feature severe wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center includes a threat of severe weather for Indiana today through Thursday (this will likely get extended into the Friday/ Saturday time period before drier, more stable air can work in here).

Localized flash flooding will also become a concern, especially towards mid and late week as these storm clusters track over the same areas. Juicy precipitable water values (2”+) will help feed these storm clusters, turning them into prolific rain makers at times. It should be noted that some central IN communities have missed out on recent rains, so rainfall rates of 2”+ / hour falling on rock hard soils will have no problem running off and leading to flash flooding at times.

Drier air will eventually build in here by the weekend and this will lead to a temporary pull back in rain/ storm coverage, and a much more pleasant airmass. Timing, yet again, is on our side.

Tomorrow is a travel day so please expect a later than normal client video post. Should have things online by mid evening, or so, Wednesday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/07/05/and-then-came-the-rain-and-storms/

Jul 04

Happy Independence Day; Opportunity For Multiple Strong Storm Clusters This Week…

Updated 07.04.22 @ 8a 1.) Happy Independence Day! We should squeeze in one more dry day. It’ll be hot with highs surging into the lower 90s. We’ll also notice an…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/07/04/happy-independence-day-opportunity-for-multiple-strong-storm-clusters-this-week/

Jul 03

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 07.03.22 @ 6:40a

The axis of the upper ridge will retrograde west over the upcoming week, putting our region on the outer periphery of the hot dome anchored in the Plains.
Cooler than normal temperatures are expected along the West Coast and Northeast during the upcoming 10 days as a whole. Serious heat will bake the Front Range and Plains.
To no surprise, an axis of above normal rain is anticipated to take up residence from the northern Rockies, southeast into the Ohio Valley and Deep South through the coming 10 day period.
We expect widespread rainfall between 1”-2” over the upcoming 10 day period, but there will be localized significantly heavier totals.

Forecast Period: 07.03.22 through 07.13.22

After a quiet holiday weekend, a much more active pattern will take hold as we navigate the 1st half of July. It won’t rain everyday, but chances of benefitting from soaking rain in more widespread fashion will be on the rise as we move into the middle and latter part of this week into the following week.

Serious heat will bake the Plains while a cooler pattern dominates the Northeast region. In between, here on the home front, we’ll note heat trying to expand northeast into the Ohio Valley (and there will be several 90°+ days thrown in the 10-day period), but each time it may look like the heat is here to stay for more than a few days, we’ll likely get cooling relief from cold fronts moving southeast around the periphery of the ridge.

We’ll have to pay close attention to some of the more “mature” storm complexes including a heightened threat of damaging straight line winds give the overall pattern. It’s impossible to pin down which complexes may include a better threat of severe weather from this distance, but this threat may include a closer look as we move into the middle and latter part of the week.

10-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1”-2”

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/07/03/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-44/

Jul 02

Ring Of Fire- Long Awaited Active Pattern On The Doorstep…

Updated 07.02.22 @4:45a

Thankfully, it continues to look like timing is on our side as we navigate the Independence Day holiday weekend.

A weak front moved through the region last night with scattered storms. While everyone didn’t get wet, some neighborhoods absolutely cashed in. That front will push far enough south (eventually stalling in the northern TN Valley) to allow, quieter and drier conditions to prevail today through the holiday, itself. All of those big outdoor plans should be executed without having to worry about Mother Nature throwing us any surprises (I know, famous last words, right?!).

With that said, the promised much more active (wetter) pattern is on our doorstep. The culprit? A retrograding ridge of high pressure. The GFS ensemble loop below shows this perfectly over the next couple of weeks.

This puts the Ohio Valley in a favorable position to cash in on multiple storm clusters that will ride the periphery of the hot dome well to our west. The pressure gradient between blazing hot conditions in the Plains, back into the Four Corners, combined with cooler shots of air blowing southeast from the upper Midwest and Great Lakes may “up the ante” for some of these complexes to include potential of damaging straight line winds.

Needless to say, for a region that hasn’t enjoyed widespread soaking rains in quite some time, this is good news as we approach what’s traditionally the hottest time of the year.

Guidance continues to paint a wetter than normal picture through the middle of July.

After the relatively quiet holiday weekend, the “excitement” will get underway late Monday night into Tuesday as the first in a series of storm complexes rides in from the northwest. While it most certainly won’t rain the entire time over the course of the next couple weeks, most will surely notice a significant difference in frequency of more widespread rain throughout central IN compared to of late.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/07/02/ring-of-fire-long-awaited-active-pattern-on-the-doorstep/

Jul 01

Long Range Update Looking Through The Month Of July…

Updated 07.01.22 @ 6a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/07/01/long-range-update-looking-through-the-month-of-july/

Jun 30

VIDEO: Detailed Look At The Holiday Weekend; Wet Pattern Takes Shape Next Week…

Updated 06.30.22 @ 7:35a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/06/30/video-detailed-look-at-the-holiday-weekend-wet-pattern-takes-shape-next-week/

Jun 29

VIDEO: Another Couple Quiet Days Before Rain Chances Increase; 1st Half Of July Continues To Look Much Wetter…

Updated 06.29.22 @ 7:24a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/06/29/video-another-couple-quiet-days-before-rain-chances-increase-1st-half-of-july-continues-to-look-much-wetter/

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