Category Archives: T-storms

Active Stretch Of Weather…

Screen Shot 2015-12-21 at 7.32.21 AMHighlights:

  • Several storms to track
  • Mid week thunder
  • Mild pattern continues through the period

Hard to believe Christmas week is here!  Unfortunately for travelers, we’re looking at a very active stretch of weather through (and beyond) the Christmas holiday.

We’re opening the short work week with rain falling across the state this morning.  Steady rains will taper to showers late morning into the afternoon before drier air invades the region for a quiet Tuesday.

Storm system number 2 blows into town Wednesday and we’re a bit concerned a strong to severe storm may even be possible around these parts Wednesday.  Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern.  Despite the rain, a strong southerly flow will pull abnormally warm and moist air north, helping add to the ingredients for mid week storms.

Our mid week storm will swing a cold front through here Wednesday night, setting the stage for calmer and cooler (but still above normal) weather Christmas Eve – Christmas Day.  As moisture returns, we’ll forecast a mostly cloudy Christmas with showers/ drizzle possibly developing as early as Christmas evening.

Another complex storm system will be with us for the weekend, but the specifics with this system are still up in the air and will require fine tuning as we draw closer.  Heavy rain appears to be the biggest threat from this distance.  Get the idea that we’re looking at an incredibly busy time of things? 🙂

7-Day Outlook, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Forecast, Heavy Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm

Record Warmth Coming; Rain And Storms As Well…

Screen Shot 2015-12-09 at 7.13.26 AMHighlights:

  • Warmth is the big story now
  • Showers and t-storms increase

Relatively quiet weather remains in the near-term period.  A fast moving disturbance will cross the state this morning and could spark a light shower or sprinkle, but we’ll get back to increasingly sunny conditions this afternoon and evening.

Moisture will begin to return as we close the week and head into the weekend, but it’s really not until the second half of the weekend that we begin looking at more widespread rain.

As a SW flow begins to transport Gulf of Mexico (GoM) moisture north, a light passing shower is possible Friday evening and Saturday.

Friday

Saturday

Despite the increase in cloudiness and threat of a passing shower, it won’t keep us away from flirting with records Saturday, and note the widespread portion of the Tennessee and Ohio Valley that will also be in jeopardy of setting new records.

Source: Weatherbell.com
Source: Weatherbell.com

Much better rain and storm chances ramp up Sunday afternoon into Monday.

PWATs (precipitable water values) increase dramatically during the aforementioned time period and could help fuel locally heavy rains during that time period, particularly with embedded thunderstorms.

PWAT

Cooler air will arrive early next week, but remain significantly above normal.  We’ll discuss the longer range a bit later…

7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm

What Season Is This? Active Pattern Develops…

Screen Shot 2015-12-07 at 7.31.39 AMHighlights:

  • AM fog gives way to sunshine
  • Another fast moving disturbance moves through Tuesday night-Wednesday
  • Major warmth
  • Stormy finish

A quick glance at the updated 7-day shows two things, a lack of cold air and a rather active time of things.  In the near term, it remains a relatively quiet period.  We’ll deal with morning fog in spots this morning (especially north-central IN) and another fast moving disturbance in the Tuesday night-Wednesday time frame.

The big story as we move into the back half of the week is the unseasonably warm regime that will have many asking “What season are we in?”  We’ll aim for the upper 50s Thursday, around 60 Friday, and upper 60s Saturday as a strong SW flow develops in advance of our next storm system

Warmth will reach it's peak Saturday. Source: Weatherbell
Warmth will reach it’s peak Saturday. Source: Weatherbell

While a scattered, fast moving, shower is possible Saturday, the big story will be the warmth and a gusty SW breeze.

Our storm system will grow closer Sunday and we’ll ramp up rain and storm chances accordingly during that period.  Our two most trusted global models handle things differently as we progress into the Sunday-Monday time frame (strength, track, and timing), and we’ll need to continue to fine tune that particular period as we move forward.  As it stands now we’ll forecast rain and thunderstorms to become widespread Sunday before colder air arrives on the backside of the storm. Stay tuned.

SundayMap

MondayMap

7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Couple Storms To Watch And Much Colder Air…

Screen Shot 2015-11-17 at 7.30.17 AMHighlights:

  • Periods of rain
  • Turning cooler
  • Next storm offers up wintry precipitation for parts of the state
  • Early arctic blast

Periods of rain will continue into the mid to late afternoon across central IN as “wave 2” of our current storm system moves through.  We’ve added a couple simulated radar images below, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

9aFuture

2pFutureThis is all in association with a significant autumn storm system that’s been responsible for delivering hefty snows across the Rockies, blizzard conditions across the High Plains, and severe weather across the central and southern Plains.  This storm will lift northeast over the next 24-36 hours.

TuePM

WedPMA third, and final, wave of moisture will push through the state Wednesday, in a weakened state from what our friends to the west will experience (where another round of severe is expected today and tonight).  This is what the radar may look like mid-morning-ish Wednesday.

10aWedFutureWhen all is totaled up from rain that began Monday afternoon and ends Wednesday afternoon, many locales will pick up 1.5″-2″ of needed rainfall.  While significant, those numbers are lower than what originally model data implied, but we’ll take what we can get to push closer to average for November rainfall.

All eyes will then shift to our second storm system that will arrive over the weekend.  There are still more questions than answers in regards to track of this next “wave” of low pressure, but with much colder air in place and pouring in behind the system, snow will fly across northern IN.  As of now we forecast the majority of this event to fall in a liquid form across central IN, but even here precipitation may end as light snow showers the way things stand now.  Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune the track. Regardless, much colder air will be with us to end the period.

7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Rain, snow, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather