Category Archives: T-storms

Thoughts Shift Towards Severe Weather Season…

With the unseasonable warmth this week, our thoughts begin to shift to the coming spring months ahead.  Of course with spring comes the potential of storms- some of which include severe weather outbreaks.

Already, 2017 has wasted no time in the tornado department, year-to-date- more than double the (10) year average across the United States.

The Gulf of Mexico is boiling warm (running 1°-3° C above normal) and this will aid in transporting moisture-rich air north.  As storms eject out of the Rockies and Plains, one would tend to believe anomalously warm dew points and precipitable water values will be available.

The JMA Weeklies show an active stretch developing as we progress through the next few weeks.

As we rumble deeper into the spring months, the mean trough position should be located across the west.  The end result should be a mean storm track that runs into the Ohio Valley- courtesy of resistance from an eastern ridge (that warm water in the Gulf and East Coast screams the mean ridge position should be located across the east coast).  Confidence is greater than normal on a busy severe weather season.

Much more later as spring evolves.

Dew points, Severe Weather, T-storms

Buckle Up: Spring, Winter, Spring…

Screen Shot 2017-02-07 at 7.04.56 AMHighlights:

  • Periods of storms Tuesday
  • Snowy Wednesday for some
  • Warming back up this weekend with storms

Dramamine Required…The “tug of war” weather pattern will continue through the forecast period with winter and spring each having difficulty taking control for any length of time…

Walking out the door this morning will have you checking the calendar to see if it, indeed, is early February.  As we type this Tuesday morning, temperatures are in the lower 60s across many central IN neighborhoods.  That unseasonably warm air mass will help fuel t-storm development through the mid afternoon hours and a couple of these storms could reach severe levels, including damaging winds.

The cold front will sweep through the state this afternoon putting an end to the storminess and resulting in colder air spilling into the region tonight.  A disturbance will quickly move into the colder air mass Wednesday and this will result in an area of snow developing during the day.  This is a tricky system as the recent warm, wet ground would argue against much, if any, accumulation.  However, localized banding features likely will lead to more intense snowfall rates across portions of north-central IN Wednesday afternoon-evening and this would overcome the warm surface temperatures and lead to local slushy accumulations.  We feel at this time, the best bet for a potential 1″-2″ slushy snowfall will be just north of the city and we’ll have a snowfall forecast map out this evening (want to give the 12z modeling a good look).

We’ll turn much colder Thursday before wrapping up the work week with a windy, milder feel Friday.

The next storm will arrive over the weekend and serve to give the thermometer another spring-like look, but, similar to today, storms will follow Sunday…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″
7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, Severe Weather, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Touching Base Monday Evening…

That sunshine sure was nice…while it lasted. Clouds lowered and thickened through the afternoon and a wind-driven mist is falling across most of central Indiana this evening. That mist will…

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Hail, Rain, Severe Weather, snow, T-storms