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Category: T-storms
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/quick-wednesday-evening-video-update-3/
Jan 27
Wednesday Morning Rambles…
January, to date, has been cold and dry, locally. Officially, Indianapolis is running 1° below normal and nearly 1″ below normal. After several relatively “boring” days, much more…
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Dec 28
Strong Winds; More Heavy Rain…
Highlights:
- Strong winds and flood threat continues
- Weak mid week system
- Much colder to open the New Year
Strong Winds And Flood Threat Remains…What an active morning across central IN! Northeast winds are already gusting around 40 MPH with periods of heavy rain this morning. Across our northern tier of counties (mainly north of a line from LAF to KOK) freezing rain and sleet is the issue this morning with temperatures below freezing.
Periods of heavy rain will continue today, and we also note the threat of embedded thunder (damaging wind risk) this evening, bracketed between the hours of 6p-8p.
Image below is courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Temperatures will remain cold and raw through most of the day before we see a late day rally briefly into the lower to middle 50s. It’ll be another day with a tight temperature gradient across the state, as northern IN will struggle to make it much above freezing, while southern IN approaches the upper 60s this evening.
Midnight highs Tuesday can be expected before temperatures crash.
We’ll then set our eyes towards a weak wave of low pressure that looks to deliver a light mixed bag of precipitation Wednesday morning. The freezing line will run through the central part of IN and a mixture of light snow and light rain can be expected. MUCH colder air flows into the state behind this system and sets the stage for a cold open to 2016.
Image below is courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Forecast models continue to show an expected pattern shift to all-out sustained cold and wintry conditions for mid and late winter. Note the W NA ridging developing. Additionally, blocking and a negative AO develop as mid January nears. Think this is the year without a winter? Better think again, my friends.
Image below is courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/strong-winds-more-heavy-rain/
Dec 23
Severe Weather & Record Warmth…
A very active weather day is in store for central IN. As we type this (6:30 am), temperatures are hovering around 60 degrees. Simply put, that’s hard to believe. We’re on our way to a record warm day, with highs in the middle 60s across central IN.
The main story, however, will be the severe weather our area may have to deal with in (2) waves this afternoon/ evening.
The Set-up: A short wave trough will eject out of the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region. A surface low and associated cold front will accompany this trough. Unseasonably warm and moist air will spread north this afternoon and evening, including surface dew points in the lower 60s. PWATs (precipitable water values) will exceed 1.25″.
The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Slight Risk of severe for all of the state, including an Enhanced Risk across southern IN.
Timing: We think potentially (2) waves of storms will rumble through the state today. The first likely comes during the early afternoon with a potential second line of storms blowing through the area in direct association with the cold front later this evening/ tonight. Admittedly, it’s tough to pin point the second potential wave of activity until we see what/ how the first round of storms impact the local air mass.
*As always, the forecast radar products we show should not be taken verbatim. These are used for guidance in building our forecast and provide a look at what the radar may look like during a given time frame.
2p forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Impacts: We remain most concerned for the potential of damaging thunderstorm winds, but stress that we can’t rule out a quick spin-up tornado with this type set-up.
Most importantly, have a means of getting the latest weather information today, especially if you’re traveling. Set those weather radios to alert you of any watches or warnings that may come later today.
Looking ahead: We still forecast a significant rain event that will likely lead to flooding early next week. Model data remains very consistent on the potential of 4″-6″ of rain over the upcoming 7-day period. Afterwards, a blast of arctic air looks to invade to welcome in 2016. More on both of these events after we deal with today’s severe.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/severe-weather-record-warmth/
Dec 22
Tuesday Evening Video Brief: Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow.
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