Category Archives: T-storms

Drier, Cooler Air On Our Doorstep…

screen-shot-2016-09-10-at-9-20-41-amHighlights:

  • Greatest storm coverage and intensity this morning
  • Turning much drier and cooler
  • Reinforcing mid week cool air

Turning Much Drier This Evening…It’s been a wet and stormy time of things as of late.  Locally heavy rain will continue to accompany stronger storms this morning, but we note greatest storm coverage should begin to shift ENE as the morning progresses into afternoon.  Renewed showers will likely develop this afternoon as the cold front moves through the state.  We’ll then enjoy a marked NW wind shift this evening and that will help push much drier and cooler air in to help create a true fall feel tonight.  The second half of the weekend look beautiful- sunny and crisp!

Much needed dry time will be with us for the balance of the upcoming work week.  We note a reinforcing push of cool air mid week that could spark a shower, but rainfall amounts don’t look impressive (the air will be much drier than the “soupy” feel we’ve been dealing with for the past week).  A more significant rain-maker should arrive next weekend…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1″-2″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Heavy Rain, T-storms

Periods Of Heavy Rain Then Much Cooler…

A “wavy” frontal boundary will be located over our region through the next 36-48 hours before getting a “shove” south from a cold front Saturday. 


The combination of the stationary front along with a tropical-rich air mass in place will be enough in and of itself to produce periods of heavy rain today into Saturday morning. Add in a couple of disturbances moving along the boundary and the heavy rain prospects grow even higher. A strong to severe storm also can’t be ruled out-primarily this afternoon and again Friday afternoon. 

Already this morning (6:30a) we note widespread showers and embedded thunder impacting IL and northern IN. 


As mentioned, the air mass is plenty “juicy” to fuel locally heavy rain through the period. Precipitable water values (PWATs) will surge north of 2″ for all of central IN later today. 


While it won’t rain the entire time, periods of heavy rain will remain in our forecast today through Saturday morning. Widespread 1″-2″ totals will be common, with locally heavier totals. 


High pressure will build overhead Sunday and lead to quite the change. A much cooler and drier air mass will return along with brighter skies to wrap up the weekend. 


Lows in the middle 50s will be common for the city, itself, Sunday through Tuesday mornings. Upper 40s to lower 50s are a good bet away from the metro. 

No Comments Autumn, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, T-storms

Tuesday Evening Weather Notebook…

It’s been a cool and dry start to the month of September. Through the first few days, IND is running 0.70° below normal and 0.44″ below average precipitation. 


The upper ridge currently in place will deliver more late summer heat through the end of the work week. It’ll remain mostly dry, as well. 


Much better rain and storm chances will have to be built into our forecast Friday into Saturday, courtesy of a cold front moving into the region. 


A much cooler regime will settle into the region over the weekend. Highs behind the front in the 70s with lows in the 50s will be common- after rain potential of 1″-1.5″ for most. 


A reinforcing shot of cool air will arrive the middle of the following week. Early indications suggest the second shot of fall-like air will be even cooler than this weekends’ and could feature widespread 40s at night. 

No Comments 10-day, Autumn, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Warmth Next Week Gives Way To A Cool Mid Month…

The refreshingly cool couple days we’ve recently enjoyed will begin to give way to moderating temperatures today.  Humidity levels will remain pleasant and it’ll be a great Labor Day weekend to spend time outdoors.  Highs will top out around 80 today and into the middle 80s Sunday.  Labor Day will feature the mercury climbing closer to the 90 degree mark.  – Fitting, I suppose, for the unofficial end to summer.

Humidity levels will be on the uptick come Monday evening and Tuesday as Gulf moisture is transported northward.

GulfMoistureIt’ll be a downright hot week, as well.  Temperatures will top out around 90 through the end of the short work week.

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_4As we rumble into next weekend and the following week indications continue to point towards wetter and cooler times.

After a dry week ahead, rain and storms will come with that increased humidity next weekend.

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_7Early numbers off the press suggest 1″-2″ rains possible next weekend.

The increased rain and storm chances signal another shift in the pattern towards a cooler one just beyond the Day 10 period.  From experience, I would look for this trough around mid month to trend deeper (more significant) as time draws closer.

gfs-ens_z500a_us_47It’s possible the first push of widespread 40s loom around the middle of the month.  Time will tell…

No Comments 10-day, Autumn, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Labor Day Weekend, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Hot Weather Returns…

Screen Shot 2016-09-02 at 7.24.49 AMHighlights:

  • Sun-filled days
  • Turning hot
  • Storm chances return by mid week

Refreshing Temperatures (For Now)…High pressure and a dry northeast flow will continue to support refreshing conditions across the region.  Plentiful sunshine along with low humidity values will create ideal weather to spend time outdoors as we go into the long Labor Day weekend.  Perhaps a bonfire is in order this evening?

Eventually, our air flow will back around to the southwest and this will allow a much warmer and increasingly humid air mass to return.  Sunday will be noticeably hotter, but the true push of humidity will arrive Labor Day into Tuesday.  It’ll, officially, feel “oppressive” by mid week.  That increased moisture will also help ignite scattered storm chances Wednesday into Thursday.

Looking just beyond the (7) day period shows the potential of a cooler period building back in next weekend…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″-0.50″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Labor Day Weekend, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm