Category: T-storms

Mar 31

Friday Afternoon Briefing: Severe Threat Continues To Increase…

Updated 03.31.23 @ 2:15p

The talented folks over at the Storm Prediction Center have increased the Day 1 severe threat to now include most of the state in a Moderate (level 4 out 5) risk. It should also be pointed out that all modes of severe weather are in play, including tornadoes, some of which could be long track.

We continue to believe discrete cells will begin to fire later this evening (targeting initiation between 4p and 6p) across the state and it won’t take much for these to begin to show signs of rotation. If you don’t have to travel tonight, we recommend making it a night in and keeping tuned to the latest watches and warnings that will be sure to come.

As we progress deeper into the evening and early overnight hours, that’s when we expect a squall line, capable of producing damaging straight line winds, to march across the state from west to east. We bracket the hours of 10p to 2a west to east for impacts. In addition to the heightened damaging wind threat, it’s possible some of the embedded cells within the line will try and rotate, leading to a spin up tornado potential within the advancing line, especially for western and central parts of the state.

No need for panic or alarm, these events take place every year around these parts. Just ensure to review your severe weather plan and stay tuned to local media for the latest warnings that will be issued later this afternoon and into the evening.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/31/friday-afternoon-briefing-severe-threat-continues-to-increase/

Mar 31

VIDEO: A Day To Remain Weather-Aware; Another Severe Episode On Deck Early Next Week…

Updated 03.31.23 @ 7:45a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/31/video-a-day-to-remain-weather-aware-another-severe-episode-on-deck-early-next-week/

Mar 30

Latest Details; Timing Out Storms Friday Into The Overnight…

Updated 03.30.23 @ 7:48a

Today is easy. We’ll have a few clouds drifting through the state at times, but also expect a good deal of sunshine and temperatures warming into the upper 50s to lower 60s after the cold start to the day.

In the short-term, all eyes remain squarely focused on Friday into the early morning hours Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest severe weather outlook Friday places all of the state in some sort of risk of severe. Far northeastern Indiana (Auburn and Angola) is in a “marginal” risk. The majority of the state, including Indianapolis, Bloomington, South Bend, and Lafayette is in a “slight” risk, and places such as Terre Haute down to Evansville and Jasper is included in an “enhanced” risk. Bottom line, all of us can expect a threat of severe weather tomorrow and it’ll be important to have a means of getting the latest information regarding any warnings that will likely be issued.

As we time things out, we’ll wake up to widespread showers and embedded thunder Friday morning, but most, if not all, of this activity will remain well below severe levels.

Showers and embedded thunder (non-severe) will be with us out the door Friday morning

It’s as we progress into tomorrow evening and the overnight that the concern of severe weather will increase. We bracket the hours of 10p and 3a from west to east that should feature a heightened risk of severe, with the biggest concern being damaging straight line winds with a line of storms that will roll across the state. There’s also an opportunity for a couple of discrete cells within the broader line to rotate and produce a tornado or two.

A line of severe storms is expected to impact the state Friday night. We bracket 10p (west) to 3a (southeast) for the biggest impacts.
Forecast radar at 12a Saturday.

We also want to be sure to hit on the “gradient” (non thunderstorm) winds that will impact the entire area. Gusts approaching 50 MPH can be expected Friday afternoon/ evening and again Saturday morning into the afternoon.

Speaking of Saturday- it’ll feature improving conditions from a severe perspective, but we’ll be left with falling temperatures (it’ll be one of those days with a “midnight high”), gusty winds, and a few leftover light showers. After a high around 60° at midnight, temperatures will be spent in the 30s and 40s most of the day with colder ‘chills.

Bigger improvements are on deck Sunday before we have to turn our attention to our next severe weather episode early next week. More on that and updated long range thoughts later this evening.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/30/latest-details-timing-out-storms-friday-into-the-overnight/

Mar 29

VIDEO: Getting To Be That Time Of Year; Tracking A Couple Systems That Will Offer Up A Severe Threat In The Days Ahead…

Updated 03.29.23 @ 7:57a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/29/video-getting-to-be-that-time-of-year-tracking-a-couple-systems-that-will-offer-up-a-severe-threat-in-the-days-ahead/

Mar 28

VIDEO: Bumpy Close To The Week…

Updated 03.28.23 @ 7:58a

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Mar 27

VIDEO: Keeping Close Eyes On Late Week…

Updated 03.27.23 @ 1:38p

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Mar 26

VIDEO: Gusty Storms Arrive This Evening; Bigger Late Week System On Deck…

Updated 03.26.23 @ 9a

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Mar 25

VIDEO: Winds Increase This Afternoon And Tracking Sunday Evening Storms; Strong Storm Potential Late Next Week? Longer Range Outlook Into Mid-April…

Updated 03.25.23 @ 8:08a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/25/video-winds-increase-this-afternoon-and-tracking-sunday-evening-storms-strong-storm-potential-late-next-week-longer-range-outlook-into-mid-april/

Mar 22

VIDEO: Focusing In On The Flood Threat To Close The Week…

Updated 03.22.23 @ 7:46a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/22/video-focusing-in-on-the-flood-threat-to-close-the-week/

Mar 02

Client Brief: Thursday Evening Update…

Updated 03.02.23 @ 11:03p

Type: Flooding and Severe Weather; North-Central IN Wet Snow

What: Heavy rain and severe weather; north-central Indiana heavy wet snow

When: Friday, 3/3/23

Wind: Variable 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH

Summary: A deepening area of low pressure will track into the central Ohio Valley as we close the work week. This will lead to an expanding area of heavy precipitation through the overnight and into Friday morning. Precipitation will fall in the form of heavy rain across central portions of the region, including the Indianapolis area, along with a flood threat. Further north, heavy wet snow will develop across northern IN, into the greater CHI area and into central MI. Note: Early 00z guidance is shifting this area of low pressure further southeast which puts more of north-central parts of the state in play for wet snow accumulation Friday afternoon. We’ll continue to monitor overnight trends but the possibility is there that the rain-snow line will have to shift south compared to what most of the data has been showing the past couple of days. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2”+ can be expected into central IN along with non-thunderstorm gusts of 50+ MPH.

We bracket the 1p to 4p window for the threat of severe storms. This risk lies from Indianapolis proper and points south. We anticipate a line of storms to “bow” out, leading to an elevated damaging wind threat across southern IN during this time period but we also note the potential of a couple of quick spin-up tornadoes within this line of storms, as well. It’ll be important to have a means of getting any and all warnings Friday. Keep tuned to local media or have a way to receive the latest National Weather Service updates. All of the “action,” including the heavy rain threat is expected to wind down Friday evening, including much calmer and quieter conditions returning Friday night.

We’ll be back with a fresh video discussion no later than 7:30a Friday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/02/client-brief-thursday-evening-update/

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