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Category: T-storms
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-busy-night-of-severe-weather-on-tap/
Feb 28
Active Severe Weather Night Ahead…
The updated outlook from the Storm Prediction Center shows an expanded “Enhanced Risk” to encompass all of central Indiana.
This morning’s showers and thunderstorms were the first of (3) rounds of storms expected today. Ironically, most of the daytime hours should be rain and storm-free. We’ll note scattered showers and thunderstorms across northern portions of the state this afternoon, as a warm front continues to lift north.
As we progress into the overnight hours tonight into Wednesday morning, that’s when we’re most concerned for potential severe weather impacts to central Indiana. Short-term, high resolution, modeling continues to suggest individual storms (perhaps super cells) will develop around midnight across the region. These would include all modes of severe weather, including the potential of large hail and a tornado.
Finally, our severe weather threat will come to an end with the passage of a squall line during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday morning. The biggest threat with this line of storms will be damaging wind, but a quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out either.
With the majority of this event occurring when most are sleeping, please have a way to get the latest information on watches and warnings that are sure to come tonight. We highly encourage everyone to have a weather radio, and be sure to set the alert mode to “on” before bedtime tonight.
We’ll be back this evening with a fresh 7-day update! Make it a great Tuesday!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/active-severe-weather-night-ahead/
Feb 27
Unseasonably Warm And Stormy Weather Gives Way To Late Week Chill…
Monday evening is running much warmer than this time Sunday across most of the central, including right here in Indiana.
This warmer regime is the sign of stormy times that will develop as we move into Tuesday. An initial round of showers and thunderstorms will impact central Indiana Tuesday morning and the HRRR forecast radar is picking up on this nicely, especially during the predawn hours.
The wet, stormy start to the day will give way to a mostly dry time of things through the majority of the daylight hours Tuesday, but our concentration will be on the Tuesday night-Wednesday morning period, as the potential exists for some rather turbulent weather.
We note the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center outlines all of the region for the chance of severe weather Tuesday night and also note the possibility the “enhanced” risk area may expand in future updates. Additionally, given some of the ingredients we’re observing this evening, there’s also the possibility we may see an upgrade to a “moderate” risk for portions of the region. It’ll be particularly important to pay attention to weather updates Tuesday night. Primary concerns are for large hail and damaging winds in a possible squall line that develops ahead of an approaching cold front. Additionally, if storms develop ahead of the primary line of storms, the potential exists for a couple of tornadoes. Have a means of getting the latest watches and warnings Tuesday night.
Modeled radar suggests things may begin to get “busy” around these parts late evening and during the overnight. The latest high resolution NAM (hot off the press as of this update) paints a rather ominous look as midnight nears Wednesday morning.
We then note modeling bringing the squall line through central Indiana during the overnight and predawn hours. We’ll have to fine tune timing as we move through the day Tuesday, but we bracket the hours of 2a and 6a when a concentrated line of strong to severe storms rumbles through the state (northwest to southeast). Hail and damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but a quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out.
Our weather will turn quieter, but colder, as Wednesday progresses into Wednesday evening, including blustery conditions with falling temperatures.
A fast-moving clipper system will dive southeast Thursday evening into early Friday morning and this could produce a snow shower, or two, across the region, but shouldn’t amount to much from a snow perspective (keeping true to the tune of the winter, heh?). The bigger story will be the “rude” feel to the air mass as we wrap up the work week, as highs only reach the upper 30s with a gusty wind.
That said, the chilly late week conditions won’t last long, and a gusty southwesterly air flow will develop as early as Saturday. This will help give temperatures a significant boost Saturday afternoon after a cold start to the day. 60° is possible Saturday afternoon and the mercury may approach 70° Sunday!
More updates in the AM! Have a great night, friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/unseasonably-warm-and-stormy-weather-gives-way-to-late-week-chill/
Feb 26
Looking Ahead To Spring…
Meteorological spring begins in a few days (runs March through May). We’ve already touched on the expected busy severe weather season and want to dedicate this post towards looking deeper into the weather pattern and the resulting precipitation and temperature impacts.
The latest longer-range data continues to be in very good agreement on the upper air pattern. In short, the balance of the spring season looks to offer up a continued theme of warmer than average temperatures for our region. (Not saying we won’t have to deal with a wintry “trick or two” over the first couple weeks of March). When we look at spring, as a whole, we believe it’ll be one known more for the warmth and active, stormy times.
CFSv2 March Temperature Anomalies
CFSv2 April Temperature Anomalies
CFSv2 May Temperature Anomalies
JAMSTEC March through May Temperature Anomalies
The latest JMA monthly idea is one that has to raise an eye brow as it would paint an early summer across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Anomalous warmth (true summer-like air) would develop with a strong ridge over the Great Lakes and northeast. This is something we’ll have to keep an eye on. A big caveat here is how strong and quickly the coming El Nino develops. It should be noted, El Nino years can feature some of the hottest air early, not late, in the summer season (relative to averages), and the JMA would, indeed, yield an early summer with such a look.
JMA May Forecast 500mb Pattern
It should also be noted modeling is suggesting a wet look, locally, especially during the early portions of spring. The JAMSTEC and JMA are particularly bullish on a wet pattern.
JAMSTEC March through May Precipitation Anomalies
JMA March through May Precipitation Anomalies
The CFSv2 hits the wet March hard before a drier regime mid and late spring.
March Precipitation Anomalies
April Precipitation Anomalies
May Precipitation Anomalies
In closing, we seem to have a bit of a bumpy ride in front of us as meteorological spring begins. While Old Man Winter hasn’t been seen much as of late, don’t be shocked if he makes his presence felt a few more times through the first half of March- both from a cold and snow perspective. That said, data really points towards more of an overall warm regime developing the second half of the month, and continuing through the majority of spring, for that matter. We’re keeping a close eye on May for an early summer-like feel to take hold, locally. Subsequent JMA updates will be monitored closely. We also remain confident of an active severe weather season. Note the tendency of model data (above) to pull the mean trough position to the northwest March into April. The clash of late-season wintry conditions west, combined with unseasonably warm temperatures across the east (not to mention the warmer than average Gulf of Mexico) likely will equal busy times as we progress through the spring severe weather season.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/looking-ahead-to-spring/
Feb 26
Transitional Week Of Weather…
Highlights:
- Warming back up
- Storms around Tuesday-Wednesday
- Colder late week
- Windy warm-up next weekend
Don’t Blink…The second half of the weekend has gotten off to a frosty, but bright start! Unfortunately, clouds will begin to increase this afternoon. Thankfully, the increasing clouds won’t keep temperatures from getting a significant boost this afternoon compared to the frigid air of Saturday.
A few showers will scoot through the state Monday, but most of these will be confined to the southern third of Indiana and most neighborhoods should remain rain-free. A more significant storm system will lift northeast Tuesday and this will provide better coverage of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday (especially late in the day) into Wednesday. After a midnight high, temperatures will fall through the daytime hours Wednesday.
Another fast-moving, weak, weather maker will impact us Thursday evening into Friday morning. Scattered showers Thursday PM will transition to light snow showers overnight into early Friday morning. Friday will be chilly, but moderating conditions return as early as Saturday, along with a strong and gusty southwest flow by the afternoon!
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: Trace – Dusting
- Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.25″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/transitional-week-of-weather/