Category: T-storms

Active Mid And Late October; Another Unseasonably Cold Shot On Deck…

Updated 10.09.23 @ 7:35a

We’re opening the work week with a few scattered clouds and temperatures around the 40° mark. We’re in a pattern that will feature predominantly cooler to colder than normal temperatures over the next 10-14 days with a couple exceptions. We’ll call it a sea of cool with an island of warmth (Thursday and Friday). The relatively warmer temperatures come after the passage of a warm front and ahead of a cold front. The “in between” will feature another period of unsettled and stormy weather to close the work week.

The overall upper air pattern shows that Hudson Bay blocking high and tendency for an eastern trough through the upcoming 2 week period. Another big cold shot will roll in here over the weekend and into the early Week 2 time period.

After a dry start to the week, rain chances will return late Wednesday and early Thursday (warm front) and again directly ahead of the cold front that will sweep through here Friday evening. Rainfall numbers with the passage of this system should check in between 0.25” and 0.75” for most of the region.

As we look ahead, a continued chilly pattern seems to be in store with additional storm dates that include:

10/19-10/20

10/23-10/24

Down the road, the strongly positive PNA and neutral to negative EPO should keep the chill flowing for the most part over the coming couple weeks. Eventually, these progressively colder shots will likely generate the 1st eastern flakes of the season, including for our friends in the beautiful high ground of those east TN and western NC mountains.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/09/active-mid-and-late-october-another-unseasonably-cold-shot-on-deck/

VIDEO: Persistent Eastern Trough Over The Next Couple Weeks…

Updated 10.08.23 @ 6a

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VIDEO: Secondary Cold Front Hits This Evening; A Little “Frost On The Pumpkin” For Some Sunday Morning…

Updated 10.06.23 @ 7:36a

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VIDEO: Rain Becomes Widespread; Reasons To Continue Buying Into The Cooler Mid-Late October…

Updated 10.05.23 @ 7:33a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/05/video-rain-becomes-widespread-reasons-to-continue-buying-into-the-cooler-mid-late-october/

VIDEO: Wet Weather Builds In Thursday; Unseasonably Chilly Weekend Change…

Updated 10.04.23 @ 7:47a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/04/video-wet-weather-builds-in-thursday-unseasonably-chilly-weekend-change/

VIDEO: Last Couple Really Warm Days Until Next Spring…

Updated 10.03.23 @ 7:18a

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What Goes Up Must Come Down…

Updated 10.02.23 @ 7:44a

“Severe” clear dominates weather headlines in the short-term. This and the unseasonably warm pattern we’re currently enjoying is a byproduct of an omega blocking pattern. Look for plentiful sunshine and afternoon highs 10° to 15° + above average through Wednesday. The combination of our dry airmass and longer nights will still allow for comfortably cool lows (mid to upper 50s).

A game changing cold front will come plowing through the region Thursday morning. Models have upped the ante a bit with respect to moisture return. We now believe scattered to numerous showers (embedded thunder) will arrive Thursday morning, continuing into the afternoon and early evening hours. Rainfall totals of 0.25″ to 0.75″ seem like a good bet now with this FROPA, with local amounts to 1″. A secondary front will pass Friday night and Saturday morning with even chillier air behind the boundary. Winds will also turn gusty as we open the weekend. By early next week, patchy frost is possible for areas outside of the city, itself.

The bigger “shock” to the system will likely come from the swing in daytime highs. Those unseasonably warm readings will take a nose dive and result in temperatures close to 10° below normal over the weekend into early next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/02/what-goes-up-must-come-down/

VIDEO: Warm Days With Plentiful Sunshine Into Early Next Week; True Fall Feel Takes Hold Late Next Week…

Updated 09.29.23 @ 7:42a

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VIDEO: Another Unsettled Day; Page Turns To Extended Dry And Unseasonably Warm Stretch To Open October…

Updated 09.27.23 @ 7:41a

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Storms Fire This Evening; Early October Blow Torch…

Updated 09.26.23 @ 7a

A closed upper low will pivot across the Ohio Valley over the next couple days. Our quiet start this morning will give way to “bumpy” times by evening. We expect scattered, but strong to severe storms to fire up after 5p. A couple of these could produce hail/ wind and we can’t rule out a quick spin up tornado with this setup.

The Storm Prediction Center highlights most of the area in a “marginal” risk of severe weather today, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a portion of this area (particularly western and central IN) is upgraded to a “slight” risk at some point.

Storms should become most widespread just before sunset and continue into the overnight hours.

As we transition into Wednesday, morning convection will likely still linger before greatest concentration of rain and storms pivots to eastern and southeastern parts of the state by afternoon.

By the time all is said and done, many central Indiana rain gauges can expect to pick up between 0.50” and 0.75” of rain but there will be a few lucky folks that accumulate much more (type setup capable of 1”-2”+ in localized areas).

As we get set to rumble into the weekend, drier air will return and plentiful sunshine is expected. We still expect an unseasonably warm open to October with an extended stretch of days in the lower to middle 80s- good for 10° to 15° above the norm.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/26/storms-fire-this-evening-early-october-blow-torch/

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