Category: T-storms

Jun 10

Air You Can Wear…

Screen Shot 2015-06-10 at 6.36.50 PMHighlights:

  • Hot and humid weather
  • Better storm chances return Friday PM
  • North briefly drier Saturday
  • “Rinse and repeat” pattern early to mid next week

Heat and humidity will remain the big weather story Thursday with only an isolated storm chance.  Most should stay rain-free Thursday.  Better rain and storm chances will rumble into the central IN picture Friday afternoon into the nighttime hours.  We think a frontal boundary will slip just far enough south to provide drier times from I-70 and points north Saturday.  Live across the southern half of the state?  Prepare for more scattered to numerous showers and storms.  Everyone will get back in on the periodically stormy times during the second half of the weekend into next week.  It’ll be plenty humid as well.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 1.5″ – 2.0″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/10/air-you-can-wear/

Jun 09

Ag Weather Report: 6/9/15

From time to time we like to post some of our AG weather reports here as opposed to our weekly updates via e-mail.  (BTW, if you’re interested in more information around this feature, please e-mail bill@indywx.com).

Rains the past couple of days have been beneficial for many areas that were dry in May.  (Here’s a hint, there’s more where that came from).

1

 

2Unfortunately, some of that heavy rain came with hail damage- particularly across northern IN Monday afternoon.

Abnormally dry conditions have continued to shrink over the region over the past couple weeks.   May and early June is a crucial time in setting the tone for the summer/ early fall months ahead.  This, of course, is fantastic news.

10As we progress ahead into the second half of the week, additional severe threats will present themselves.  Similar to Monday, hail and damaging winds are of greatest concerns in our particular Ag-weather viewing area (#IAwx, #INwx, #ILwx, #OHwx).

Day 2- Wednesday

3Day 3- Thursday

4As we move forward, a very warm to hot and humid pattern will settle in o/ the course of the next 7-14 days (and beyond).  In looking at the latest European Weeklies (can’t post here due to licensing issues) the warmer than normal pattern and wetter than normal regime is likely to continue through the rest of the month.  It’s not so much the high temperatures in terms of absolutes, but the combination of wet ground (humid and sultry) and warmer overnight lows that will really help power the warmer than normal period in the coming couple weeks.

6In the shorter term, heat will really expand across the region mid week, including many of the first 90 degree readings of the season for most folks.  The European shows the ridge flexing it’s muscle yet again into early next week.

7A very humid time of things will continue, due to the recent wet times and more rain ahead.  Aside from the storm threat(s) mid week, Friday into Saturday will also prove to offer a smattering of thunderstorms as a cold front moves in and stalls south before returning north Sunday.

Upcoming 10-day rainfall numbers are respectable, including 2″-3″ totals for many, with locally heavier amounts a good bet where storms train.

5Note the wet pattern shown deeper into June off the CFSv2:

wk1.wk2_20150608.NAThe JAMSTEC shows the wet pattern into the heart of the summer (June, July, August) and would argue against any idea of major long-lasting heat for the heart of the summer.

8BTW- for you winter lovers out there, here’s a little something to entertain you.  The JAMSTEC is onboard for another “fun” winter ahead.  Factor in those warm NPAC anomalies and a weakening El Nino into the winter and the stage very well may be set for wintry fun and games…  Long way to go here, however… 🙂

10

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/09/ag-weather-report-6915/

Jun 09

Hello Summer…

Screen Shot 2015-06-09 at 9.13.29 PMHighlights:

  • Big time heat and humidity through late week
  • Watching storm chances Wednesday night
  • Briefly drier air Saturday
  • Summer-like pattern continues next week

The big weather story over the second half of the week will be the heat and humidity.  Many will reach, or exceed, the 90 degree mark Wednesday and/ or Thursday.  We’ll keep a close eye on the northern portions of the state for storms to initialize Wednesday afternoon/ evening.  Those at greatest risk for strong to severe storm potential will be from areas along and north of the I-70 corridor Wednesday evening.  Damaging winds and hail are of biggest concern.

A cold front will slide into the area Friday and provide better coverage of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night.  Latest model runs then deliver a briefly drier surge of air Saturday and we’ll lean in that direction with our Saturday forecast for now.  Don’t get used to the drier air as heat and humidity will be plentiful early next week, along with renewed shower and storm chances.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 1″ – 1.5″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/09/hello-summer/

Jun 07

Very Active Night Ahead…

An active and noisy night is on tap, friends, as multiple storm clusters move through central Indiana.  Initially, the concern is hoisted for severe weather, including damaging winds and hail. As the night progresses, the growing concern will be flash flooding as storms train over the same area, potentially leading to 3″+ rains in localized areas.

We’re currently eyeing convection firing to our northwest and these storms will push southeast this evening.  They will move into a very warm, humid, and unstable environment and will likely strengthen as they ride into north-central IN later this evening.  Here’s a snap shot of the radar valid at 8p:

8pNote as we progress into the overnight, additional storms are likely and flooding concerns are on the rise due to this. Radar valid at 3a:

3aRainfall totals of 1″-2″ will be common tonight across central IN, but some localized reports of 3″-4″ can’t be ruled out where storms train.  Here’s a look at potential rainfall numbers through 5a:

hrrr_t_precip_indy_16We note PWATs (precipitable water values) pushing close to 2″ overnight and this increases our confidence on the heavy rainfall potential, as well:

hires_pwat_indy_20Stay weather-aware tonight, friends!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/07/very-active-night-ahead/

Jun 06

Timing Sunday Severe Potential…

A cold front will slice into a hot and humid air mass Sunday evening.  The daytime hours Sunday are expected to provide plenty of sunshine to go along with that hot and increasingly humid air mass (courtesy of strong southwest winds), but things will turn stormy Sunday night.  We’re growing close enough now to begin to bracket the most likely time for potentially strong to severe thunderstorms and focusing in on the hours between 10p and 2a.  Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but large hail and a quick spin-up tornado can’t be totally ruled out.  It’ll be important to set those weather radios before going to bed tomorrow night, or have a means of getting the latest watches and warnings.

Forecast radar 11p Sunday

11pForecast radar 2a Monday

2aForecast radar 8a Monday

8aThe line of storms will weaken in rather dramatic fashion as they continue to push south into the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley Monday morning.

Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/06/timing-sunday-severe-potential/

Jun 03

Warmer Days; Continuing To Watch Sunday Evening…

Screen Shot 2015-06-03 at 9.37.15 PMHighlights:

  • More like summer
  • Mostly dry weekend
  • Keeping a close eye on Sunday night storm threat
  • Unsettled to open the week

The story to wrap up the work week will be one much more typical of early June- warmer days are on deck with increasing humidity.  The combination of the increasingly muggy air mass coupled with a weak upper level disturbance, could ignite a shower or storm Friday.  Most of the day will be dry, however.  The upcoming weekend will feature beautiful weather conditions- dry and warm to hot.  We continue to watch a storm complex that could deliver a round of strong to severe cells (damaging straight line winds being the biggest concern) Sunday evening and night. We’ll have to tighten up potential timing as we progress closer to Sunday, but think most of the daytime hours will be dry.  Early next week will likely open a bit unsettled.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/03/warmer-days-continuing-to-watch-sunday-evening/

Jun 03

String Of 80s Return; Strong Storms Sunday Night?

June has opened chilly. In fact, the past couple days have felt more like fall than summer.     That said, warmer days are ahead. After highs today in the 70s,…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/03/string-of-80s-return-strong-storms-sunday-night/

Jun 01

Chilly Now, But Warmer Days Coming…

Screen Shot 2015-06-01 at 10.16.25 PMHighlights:

  • Unseasonably chilly air begins to moderate
  • Dry weather returns
  • Eyeing the next cold front late in the weekend

The past couple of days have felt more like late spring or fall rather than the first day of meteorological summer (June, July, August).  No need to fret, however, as milder air will return beginning Tuesday afternoon…after another very chilly start.  The next couple of days will feature plenty of sunshine!  Enjoy!  Moisture will slowly begin to increase to end the week and an isolated to widely scattered storm chance will accompany the warmer, more humid air.  Best rain and storm chances look to come Sunday as a cold front moves closer.  Drier and cooler air will work back into the region Monday evening.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/01/chilly-now-but-warmer-days-coming/

May 29

Friday Morning: Already Sticky Out There…

A quick step out of the door this morning and you’ll note the significant uptick in humidity overnight. A very warm, humid day is on tap with an isolated or…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/29/friday-morning-already-sticky-out-there/

May 28

Less Humid Today…

Screen Shot 2015-05-28 at 7.29.08 AMHighlights:

  • Less humid today
  • Best rain chances Saturday, but plenty of dry time too
  • Much cooler early next week

High pressure and a northeast flow will help provide a much less humid feel today, but it’ll still be warm.  Moisture will slowly increase again Friday and isolated to widely scattered storm coverage will return.  Best rain and storm chances will arrive Saturday afternoon and evening as a cold front passes through the region, but we want to make sure we also stress there will be plenty of dry time, as well.  The big story early next week will be a MUCH cooler air mass moving into the region.  Models are behaving in an inconsistent manner Sunday in regards to the timing and position of the frontal passage.  As of now, we’re leaning towards the drier solutions, but stay tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day rainfall potential: 1″ to 1.2″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/28/less-humid-today/

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