August has been cooler and drier than normal month-to-date.  As we’ll get into below, this cooler, dry trend should continue to wrap up the month.

* Click on any image to enlarge.

2015 to date has been cool central and east:

The upcoming winter looks fun and challenging.  It’s a volatile look with the strong Nino and warm northern, eastern Pacific (positive PDO).  Certainly can’t “broad brush” the upcoming winter forecast solely based off similar strong Ninos of the past…

Positive PDO temperature anomalies favor western Canada ridging and troughiness east.  It’s a pattern that favors a cooler than normal regime across the east and southeast.

As we go into the weekend, sunshine and comfortable conditions today will give way to increasingly cloudy skies Sunday with a threat of a shower or thunderstorm, especially during the afternoon and evening.  A few of these storms could reach strong levels.  The culprit?  Another strong late August cold front.  Most rainfall totals will be around a quarter inch Sunday, but there will be some locally heavier totals with stronger storms.

Warmer conditions will build in briefly in between the early week cool spell and stronger push of cool inbound Sunday night that will remain with us through the majority of the upcoming work week.

Longer term, we think conditions warm going into next weekend after a very cool, fall-like week, but don’t necessarily agree with the GFS ensemble plot below into early September.

We expect ridging to build in to close the last couple days of August.

However, recurving Typhoon Atsani argues for a return of cooler air (briefly) and an associated trough arriving between September 2nd and 4th…

Images credited to the following:

• weatherbell.com
• http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/
• http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm#seasonMaps