The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 11p.
Damaging straight line winds and large hail are of biggest concern as these scattered strong to severe storms continue to advance southeast. This is all in association with a cold front moving into a very warm, moist, and unstable air mass.
Forecast radar this evening continues to show a broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms advancing into central IN during the evening hours.
In addition to the hail and wind threat, locally torrential downpours are a good bet as precipitable water values (PWATs) approach 2″+ in some areas.
We’ll turn much quieter during the overnight as the cold front passes through the region. A northwest wind shift will allow a drier air mass to slip into central IN come Tuesday morning.
A quite Tuesday is needed, as more active times loom come Wednesday…
The teleconnections aren’t much help in trying to generate longer term thoughts. They would favor more of a “normal” period temperature-wise, locally. (BTW, thanks to the fine folks at MAD US Weather and ESRL for the data below).
Looking at some of the model data, the general consensus is for a warm look to go through the back half of the month, but we caution that we can’t simply “broad brush” the forecast through the EOM as warm and relatively quiet (a note on that in a moment).
As mentioned above, despite an overall warm look on the models there will likely be periods of cooler “jabs” and it sure looks like a rather transient pattern to us across the Mid West and Ohio Valley, featuring more of the sustained heat across the Southwest region. Transient patterns usually also yield for potential wetness and we note the GFS Ensembles trending in that direction to wrap up the month.
In the shorter term, there will also be localized heavy downpours, but it’s a continued case of “haves and have nots.” There won’t be any particular rhyme or reason to the specific placement of heavy, gully-washer type showers and storms mid week.
