Category Archives: Summer

Light At The End Of The Tunnel From The Recent Dry Regime?

In our JMA Weekly recap from last week, we noted the model was transitioning towards a wetter pattern for early and mid June.

It’s encouraging to see the latest ensemble data from the American GFS and European (courtesy of TropicalTidbits.com) support this idea, as well.

In addition to a wetter pattern, we would also want to pay attention to the potential of a gusty storm complex or two riding southeast around the hot dome off to our southwest.

After an unusually dry May (- 3.44″ as of this post), Alberto’s remnant moisture will help us, at the very least, cut into the rainfall deficit tomorrow.  Longer term, it sure is nice to see the medium range guidance in agreement on a wetter time of things.  As we’re all aware, this is a crucial time to determine the overall long-standing summer pattern.  Dry ground and early warmth can easily “feedback” on itself, and it’s easy to understand some of the concern, particularly AG-related over the past few weeks.  With that said, it’s certainly not too late to try and at least ease some of the worry a bit.

When we look at the MJO, we note the amplitude and it’s forecast to swing through the wetter phases, at least locally, (4,5,6) through the month of June:

In closing, the JMA Weeklies led the charge in the idea of more active times returning in June, and the combination of GFS and European ensemble data suggests they had merit.  With the added bonus of having the MJO on our side, it’ll be hard to avoid a change of the guard towards an overall wetter pattern in the weeks ahead.  Perhaps Alberto’s remnant moisture is only the beginning…

No Comments AG Report, Ensemble Discussion, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Tropics

Looking Over The New JMA Weeklies…

The JMA Weeklies update every Thursday morning and this gives us another tool to look at when developing the forecast over the upcoming 3-4 weeks.  Here are some highlights from the most recent update:

Week 1

The big story in Week 1 is the surge of tropical moisture with the area of disturbed weather in the GOM (Gulf of Mexico).  Unfortunately, it’s not until possibly Week 2 that remnant tropical moisture may interact with an approaching cold front to provide better rain chances here.  The big story for the balance of the upcoming Week 1 period, locally, will be the heat.  An unseasonably warm stretch will continue through the Memorial Day weekend and on into the middle of next week.

Week 2

The model shows a bit of a transition in the pattern with the core of the heat shifting west during the Week 2 period.  With this, there are some hints that the pattern will turn increasingly wet and stormy, locally, including a backing off of the extreme 90° heat.

Weeks 3-4

An intriguing “ring of fire” pattern develops in the Weeks 3-4 time frame.  If correct, this would result in a more active pattern across the Mid West with a busy northwest flow pattern emerging.  Storm complexes are notorious for tracking in a northwest to southeast fashion around the hot dome.  Sure enough, the model is going with a wetter than normal pattern here.  It’s hard to disagree with that given the look at 500mb.

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, JMA, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm