Updated 08.19.23 @ 9:40a
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Category: Summer
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/19/video-pleasant-now-but-heat-builds-in-the-week-ahead-quick-look-at-september/
Aug 18
Long Range Outlook Flips The Page Into Meteorological Fall…
Updated 08.18.23 @ 4:35a
Despite the blazing heat that awaits in the week ahead, another push of unseasonably cool and refreshing air that we’ll enjoy to open the weekend is a sign that autumn isn’t that far away.
As the El Niño continues to strengthen heading into fall, we’re bullish here at IndyWx.com that an unseasonably warm start to autumn is on tap. While not nearly as hot as what the week ahead will entail, we think we’ll remain close enough to the ‘mean’ upper ridge position to result in at least slightly to moderately above normal temperatures for September as a whole (say in the + 1.5° to + 3° range).
The latest European extended product and JMA Weeklies back this idea up, including a drier than normal look. While we’ll have to be on guard for the potential of ridge rider storm clusters as the ridge retrogrades west at times, the overall pattern through at least mid-September sure appears drier than normal as a whole.
While not quite as toasty, the GFS extended product is also painting a dry regime into mid-September.
From a temperature perspective into mid September, we prefer a blend of what the JMA/ Euro and GFS are suggesting. Again, slightly warmer than normal overall o/ the upcoming 3-4 week period.
As we evolve deeper into September and closer to early October, we believe the threat of an early season cold blast, including frost threat will show up a few weeks earlier than normal this season. This likely won’t be a full scale, permanent shift to cold, but rather a chilly “jolt.” Given the evolving Niño, we’ll have to likely wait until later into October before we have something more meaningful and sustained from a cold weather standpoint. . .
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/18/long-range-outlook-flips-the-page-into-meteorological-fall/
Aug 17
Cold Front Offers Up PM Storms & Reinforces Pleasant Weekend Airmass; Heat Is On Next Week…
Updated 08.17.23 @ 6:04a
A quiet start to the day will give way to a noisy lunchtime period as a line of thunderstorms drops in from the northwest.
Vivid lightning, brief gusty winds, and heavy downpours can be expected.
The Storm Prediction Center has hoisted a ‘marginal’ risk of severe today. Widespread severe weather isn’t anticipated with this frontal passage.
Our unseasonably cool, pleasant airmass we’ve enjoyed the past couple days will be reinforced with this frontal passage. Lows tomorrow and Saturday morning will dip into the upper 40s in outlying areas. Dry and sunny conditions will compliment the early fall-like air. Soak it up as a period of unseasonably hot weather still awaits next week.
The byproduct of the sprawling ridge above? A week ahead with highs well into the 90s and an extended period of dry, sunny weather.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/17/cold-front-offers-up-pm-storms-heat-is-on-next-week/
Aug 16
The Theme Of The Summer Rolls Along…
Updated 08.16.23 @ 7:26a
Most Hoosiers woke up to a hint of autumn this morning. We’re getting to that point on the calendar where we typically hear that most aren’t ready for the cooler days of autumn that are literally on the doorstep. If you find yourself in that club, take heart in knowing the hottest air of the season awaits next week as an upper level ridge expands overhead for a period of time.
This should feature multiple days next week with high temperatures into the low-mid 90s, however, this will at least be a “drier” heat compared to most other spells this summer. Most, if not all, of next week will be free of any rain along with plentiful sunshine. Aside from the big time heat, a quiet week is in store.
In looking at the long range charts, we see something similar with the ‘mean’ ridge position as it retrogrades west towards the Day 10-15 period. This should pull the more significant heat west and open us up for wetter times as we push into early September.
Perhaps the threat of some late summer/ early autumn ridge riding storm complexes are in our future? Regardless, while the upcoming week will feature significant heat, like so many other patterns this summer, there continues to be a light at the end of the hot tunnel before the “hot” pattern begins.
- Another note that will require our attention over the course of the upcoming couple weeks? The tropics. After a very quiet time of things, it sure appears as if activity will be on the uptick just in time for us to approach the peak of the season.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/16/the-theme-of-the-summer-rolls-along/
Aug 15
Changes Are Brewing…
Updated 08.15.23 @ 8a
The short-term will continue to be highlighted by unseasonably cool and refreshing air.
However those that aren’t ready to be done with the summer heat are in luck. Significant warming will take place next week. Yes, we’ll replace those cool, crisp overnight lows in the 50s with lows only in the 70s and highs into the lower 90s for multiple days next week as an upper level ridge expands and builds overhead.
Next week will also feature significantly drier and calmer conditions compared to what we’ve seen over the past few weeks. Hot and dry will rule the day, overall. As of now, most of, if not the entire week should be rain-free.
The next question becomes the staying power of the heat as we flip the page into meteorological fall. As a whole, I’m leaning towards at least the first half of fall running well above normal. That doesn’t mean the region isn’t at risk of an early frost threat this year (byproduct of the strengthening Nino event heading into fall and drivers behind what have powered the recent wet times. Speaking of wet, IND is now close to 1.5” above normal month-to-date).
As we push closer towards Labor Day weekend, the long range European data is “cooling” things closer towards seasonal levels after next week’s heat. Hard to disagree with that approach at least for a time before we begin to warm things back up, compared to normal.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/15/changes-are-brewing/
Aug 13
VIDEO: Tracking 2 Cold Fronts This Week And A Hot Close To August…
Updated 08.13.23 @ 9:02a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/13/video-tracking-2-cold-fronts-this-week-and-a-hot-close-to-august/
Aug 12
Thoughts Shift To Late August And Drier, Warmer Times…
Updated 08.12.23 @ 7:45a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/12/thoughts-shift-to-late-august-and-drier-warmer-times/
Aug 11
VIDEO: Weekend Storminess At Times; Cooler Than Normal Overall The Next 10 Days…
Updated 08.11.23 @ 7:58a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/11/video-weekend-storminess-at-times-cooler-than-normal-overall-the-next-10-days/
Aug 10
VIDEO: Thursday Morning Rambles Highlighted By Continued Wet Pattern And Potential Early Frost Risks This Autumn…
Updated 08.10.23 @ 5a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/10/video-thursday-morning-rambles-highlighted-by-continued-wet-pattern-and-potential-early-frost-risks-this-autumn/
Aug 08
Wet Pattern: Tracking Heavy Rain And Storms…
Updated 08.08.23 @ 6:14a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/08/wet-pattern-tracking-heavy-rain-and-storms/