Category: Spring

Apr 05

Long Range Report: Pattern Evolution Into Late April; Early May…

Updated 04.05.24 @ 7:16a

The overall chilly and unsettled pattern of late should show rather marked improvement not only over the short-term, but longer range, as well.

The teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, PNA, and EPO) over the next couple weeks is aligned in a manner that should promote less of an anomalous 500mb look, locally (deep eastern trough we’ve been dealing with).

If we’re able to sneak into MJO Phase 6, then a warmer “lean” would be required by mid and late April. As always, we’ll keep an eye on those trends as the majority of data keeps the MJO in the neutral phase.

The thought here is that a milder and drier overall regime will take hold over the course of the next few weeks, certainly compared to late. That said, given the pattern drivers noted above, I also want to reiterate that we shouldn’t see rain or temperatures that differ significantly from average (rather only slightly above in the temperature department and slightly below in the precipitation department over the upcoming 4 week period). Further west, the better chance of more in the way of significantly above normal temperatures (primarily in the Plains).

The latest European and JMA Weeklies agree on this overall idea.

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Upcoming 4-week rainfall anomalies

The JMA Weeklies also show a similar story.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-report-pattern-evolution-into-late-april-early-may/

Apr 04

VIDEO: Trending In The Right Direction As We Open The Weekend, But Still Have To Get Through A Couple Damp, Chilly Days…

Updated 04.04.24 @ 7:40a A big ole upper low will move only sluggishly over the next day or two, keeping clouds, light precipitation, and chilly temperatures around. The good news?…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-trending-in-the-right-direction-as-we-open-the-weekend-but-still-have-to-get-through-a-couple-damp-chilly-days/

Apr 03

VIDEO: Weather Whiplash, Indeed; Another Active Stretch On Deck By Early Next Week…

Updated 04.03.24 @ 7:40a Clouds and showers (even embedded thunder by this afternoon) will transition to wet snow tonight into Thursday morning. The wet snow will fall heavily enough to…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-weather-whiplash-indeed-another-active-stretch-on-deck-by-early-next-week/

Apr 02

Bumpy Ride This Afternoon…

Updated 04.02.24 @ 6:44a

It’ll be important to remain weather-aware this afternoon as a final round of severe storms move through the state. Morning rain will come to an end soon and then we’ll see a “lull” in the action late morning. Upstream satellite images are concerning as it appears we’ll break into sunshine for a while late morning into early afternoon. This will quickly get to work on the atmosphere and aid in a turbulent time of things through the early and mid afternoon. In fact, as the Storm Prediction Center gets a look at the setup post-sunrise, it wouldn’t surprise us if each of the respective risk areas gets pulled back further west.

Regardless, storms will redevelop just after lunchtime across western Indiana and intensify on their journey east through the afternoon. By evening, most if not all of the activity will be out of the state.

All modes of severe weather will be possible area-wide today. We’re particularly worried about an elevated tornado outbreak across the Ohio Valley, especially if clearing takes hold for a while late morning. Take warnings seriously if and when they are issued, friends.

Forecast radar 1p
Forecast radar 3p

Strong westerly winds will take hold by evening, quickly pushing a colder and more stable airmass into town, thankfully.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/bumpy-ride-this-afternoon/

Apr 01

Lunchtime Rambles: Flooding & Severe Highlight Short-Term; Wind-Whipped Snow Midweek And Looking Ahead To An Opportunity For A Briefly Calmer Window…

Updated 04.01.24 @ 11:28a

I. Things will turn quite active later tonight and into our Tuesday. Multiple rounds of heavy rain and strong thunderstorms will track across central Indiana. As heavy rain trains over the same area, localized flooding will develop Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours.

A threat of severe weather is also present, including large hail and even a couple tornadoes. Given the current parameters, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the fine folks at the Storm Prediction Center expand the current risk zones a bit further north for both the Day 1 and Day 2 outlooks. We’re still tracking a potential line of severe weather Tuesday PM after the multiple rounds in the morning. We’ll want to remain weather-aware tonight and Tuesday across central Indiana.

II. Much colder air will pour in here Wednesday and as the closed upper level low swings through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, a renewed area of precipitation will expand across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain will mix with and even change to wet snow in spots across central Indiana during this time. Heavier wet snow bursts will lead to slushy accumulation on grassy surfaces.

Northwest winds will result in lowered visibility and a harsh feel (given the time of year) with wind chills into the 10s and 20s at times.

III. While we’ll briefly dry out in the 6-10 day, the pattern continues to present an active look down the road, including above normal rainfall projected in the Week 2 timeframe through the Plains and into the mid South and western Great Lakes region.

All in all, we don’t see any extended periods of dry weather on the horizon over the next few weeks as a whole.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lunchtime-rambles-flooding-wind-whipped-snow-midweek-and-looking-ahead-to-an-opportunity-for-a-briefly-calmer-window/