Category: Spring

Feb 18

Awesome Weekend Weather Continues; Changes Ahead Next Week…

Highlights:

  • Spring-like weather rolls along
  • Shower chances return
  • Strong t-storm potential
  • Different tune next weekend

Is This February?  Our stretch of unseasonably pleasant, spring-like, weather will continue for the second half of the weekend and as we progress into the early stages of the work week.  Find a way to get outside the next couple of days (that’s an order ;-)).

A weak weather system will scoot through here Tuesday and serve to increase our cloud cover, along with a few scattered showers.  Dry conditions return Wednesday, but by then all eyes will be on an approaching stronger storm system that will provide increased shower coverage by Thursday and strong to severe thunderstorm potential Friday.  Speaking of severe weather, we think this spring will offer up a busy severe weather season.  We’ll have additional updates on the severe potential as time gets closer, but just keep a mental note Friday could be a busy weather day.

We’ll abruptly transition back to winter Friday night and the air will grow cold enough a week from today to allow scattered snow showers to fly in a gusty northwesterly breeze next Saturday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace – Dusting
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/awesome-weekend-weather-continues-changes-ahead-next-week/

Feb 13

Uneventful Weather; Warming Up Late Week…

Highlights:

  • Dry weather this week
  • Briefly cooler mid week
  • Weekend warm-up

Sunglasses Required…We’re opening the work week with crystal clear blue skies and cold temperatures. Mostly sunny conditions will give way to increasing high level cloudiness this afternoon/ evening as a storm system passes by to our south.  That increase in cloudiness is about as “exciting” as it gets this week in the weather department.  Reinforcing chilly conditions will dive south into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, but we’ll remain precipitation-free.

Like so many other cold blasts this winter, the chill won’t have staying power and we’ll get back to a moderating trend heading into the weekend.  Many places will likely come close to 70° by the second half of the weekend as dry conditions remain. Enjoy friends!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/uneventful-weather-warming-up-late-week/

Feb 12

High Pressure Supports A Quiet Week; Colder Then Warming Again…

Quick post from the road on this Sunday morning before a more extensive update tonight. 

High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley and support a quiet week, overall. 


A “pop” of cold air will flow into the state on gusty northerly winds Tuesday night and set-up a cold midweek stretch. 


Highs will fall into the 30s Wednesday and Thursday with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s. However, like so many other cold shots over the past 6 weeks, it’s of the “in and out” variety. By late week, southwest winds are developing and helping temperatures moderate going into the weekend. 


We should remain dry next weekend before a more significant storm system arrives during early portions of Week 2. With dry conditions, a strengthening southwest flow and strong upper ridge, highs next weekend will approach 65°-70°.  

With two weekends in a row of spring-like weather in February we sure have to believe we’ll have to pay for the nice conditions late month into March before true sustained spring conditions can take hold…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/high-pressure-supports-a-quiet-week-colder-then-warming-again/

Feb 07

Buckle Up: Spring, Winter, Spring…

Screen Shot 2017-02-07 at 7.04.56 AMHighlights:

  • Periods of storms Tuesday
  • Snowy Wednesday for some
  • Warming back up this weekend with storms

Dramamine Required…The “tug of war” weather pattern will continue through the forecast period with winter and spring each having difficulty taking control for any length of time…

Walking out the door this morning will have you checking the calendar to see if it, indeed, is early February.  As we type this Tuesday morning, temperatures are in the lower 60s across many central IN neighborhoods.  That unseasonably warm air mass will help fuel t-storm development through the mid afternoon hours and a couple of these storms could reach severe levels, including damaging winds.

The cold front will sweep through the state this afternoon putting an end to the storminess and resulting in colder air spilling into the region tonight.  A disturbance will quickly move into the colder air mass Wednesday and this will result in an area of snow developing during the day.  This is a tricky system as the recent warm, wet ground would argue against much, if any, accumulation.  However, localized banding features likely will lead to more intense snowfall rates across portions of north-central IN Wednesday afternoon-evening and this would overcome the warm surface temperatures and lead to local slushy accumulations.  We feel at this time, the best bet for a potential 1″-2″ slushy snowfall will be just north of the city and we’ll have a snowfall forecast map out this evening (want to give the 12z modeling a good look).

We’ll turn much colder Thursday before wrapping up the work week with a windy, milder feel Friday.

The next storm will arrive over the weekend and serve to give the thermometer another spring-like look, but, similar to today, storms will follow Sunday…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/buckle-up-spring-winter-spring/

Feb 03

Friday Morning Rambles; Looking Ahead…

1.) A cold close to the work week can be expected with highs today only topping out in the upper 20s (average highs are in the upper 30s).

gefs_t2ma_1d_noram_52.) What at one time looked to be a significant weekend storm now may not even deliver any precipitation at all to the region.  A flurry is possible, but most should remain precipitation-free this weekend. Expect a gusty southwest wind developing SB Sunday.  Highs around freezing Saturday will zoom into the middle 40s Sunday.  Lows Saturday morning in the middle 10s will rise into the upper 20s to around 30 Sunday morning.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_93.) A more significant storm system will cut for the Great Lakes early next week and this will deliver gusty showers and embedded thunderstorms.  A couple of stronger storms aren’t out of the question.  Locally heavy rains can be expected, including amounts of 1″-1.5″ (locally heavier totals).

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_19

gfs_tprecip_indy_224.)  Cold air will rush back into the region behind the storm and snow showers and squalls are likely by Wednesday.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_22

gfs_t2m_a_f_conus2_245.) Longer-term, a real fight is developing on the overall direction we’re heading as February evolves.  Analog methods and teleconnections (shown below) would yield bullish cold signals and give hope to winter enthusiasts.  However, modeling isn’t in agreement on the wintry ideas.  In fact, some modeling is very spring-like as mid-Feb nears.  Stay tuned as we try and iron out the details this weekend. Updates will come.

02.01.17Teleconnections

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-morning-rambles-looking-ahead/