Category: Spring

Apr 09

Cooler Pattern Developing Week 2…

After a warm open to April, we note the MJO is heading into Phase 2 in the medium range.  Phase 2 this time of year would imply for a cooler than normal pattern.

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combined_imageSure enough we see the modeling going towards the cooler look for Week 2 (around 4/17…give or take a day, or two).

Note the GFS ensembles reverse course towards a cooler regime after the warm period currently.

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The European ensembles (left) show a tendency for eastern troughiness, as well.

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_216This isn’t saying some sort of record-smashing cold pattern is coming or anything of that sort, but it is to say that after a warm open to April, we’ll reverse things for a few days, at least, during the medium range period.  This could include a push of frost and freeze conditions, as well.

In the shorter-term, please remain weather aware tonight and keep close tabs on watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.  Thunderstorms should push into central Indiana around midnight and will be capable of severe levels, including damaging hail, destructive straight line winds, and quick spin-up tornadoes.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cooler-pattern-developing-week-2/

Apr 08

Severe Weather Thursday; Nice Weekend Coming…

Screen Shot 2015-04-08 at 9.13.14 PMStay Weather Aware…As we type this central Indiana is enjoying a brief lull in what’s been a rather active day, complete with strong to severe thunderstorms.  Latest scans of our short term forecast models suggest the quiet times don’t last long as more thunderstorms rumble into central Indiana during the overnight hours.  Hail, vivid lightning, and additional flooding is possible with overnight/ early Thursday morning storms.

Attention then shifts to the possibility of a rather significant severe weather outbreak Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, particularly if we get rid of morning convection and cloud debris.  Tonight’s data would suggest we do clear things out Thursday afternoon and this would add “fuel to the fire” for potential severe weather Thursday night.  All modes of severe weather are in play Thursday night, including large hail, damaging straight line winds, and tornadoes.  Flash flooding will also remain a concern as some areas have accumulated more than 3″ of rain today alone.

The cold front and associated surface low responsible for Thursday’s severe weather will sweep the state Friday and usher in a much cooler and breezy regime Friday evening that will continue into Saturday.  Sunshine returns in full force Saturday and Sunday.  Perfect timing, huh?!

Enjoy that sunshine and calmer times of the weekend as rainy and stormy conditions return quickly early next week.  All-in-all, the overall theme remains a warm, wet, and stormy one.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2.50″ – 3.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/severe-weather-thursday-nice-weekend-coming/

Apr 07

Warm And Stormy…

Screen Shot 2015-04-07 at 7.46.54 AMKeep The Rain Gear Handy…A stationary boundary remains draped across the Ohio Valley and will serve as the focal point for scattered showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday.  Some of the storms may be strong and include torrential downpours.  That said, there will be many dry hours, as well.

We shift our focus to the chance of severe weather Thursday as surface low pressure moves into the Great Lakes and swings a cold front into a warm, humid, and relatively unstable air mass locally.  As of now, damaging straight line winds and large hail are the biggest concerns, but there’s also the chance of a tornado.  Stay tuned.

After an early shower Friday, we’ll clear things out nicely to wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.  Friday will be much cooler, but that April sun will help temperatures recover quickly Saturday.  Most of Sunday will be dry, but we’ll introduce showers Sunday evening.  This will set up a stormy open to next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2.00″ – 2.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/warm-and-stormy/

Apr 06

Unseasonably Warm, But Stormy At Times…

We’ll enjoy a very warm pattern this week (how do middle 70s sound Wednesday and Thursday)?!    The warmth will come at a price, however, as periods of showers and…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/unseasonably-warm-but-stormy-at-times/

Apr 04

Beautiful Weekend; Stormy Week Upcoming…

Screen Shot 2015-04-04 at 11.33.18 AMBeautiful Weather This Weekend Before A Stormy Week…Timing couldn’t be more perfect!  Between the Final Four festivities today and Easter Sunday, weather conditions simply couldn’t be any better!

We’ll begin to reverse things in a rather marked fashion early next week as moisture increases.  Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be with us throughout the week, particularly Tuesday through Thursday.  Waves of stronger storms and heavy rain can be expected.

Championship Monday will feature mostly dry conditions, but clouds will be on the increase and light showers will arrive towards afternoon/ evening.

The focal point for the most significant rain and storms will center itself Tuesday through Thursday and we’ll be more detailed around any severe potential and timing as we get closer.  For now, get outside and enjoy this weather!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2.00″ – 2.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/beautiful-weekend-stormy-week-upcoming/