February-to-date is running significantly above average (a whopping 9°+ above average at IND).
The anomalous warmth is impressive enough, but perhaps the most impressive is the duration of the unseasonably warm, April-like, warmth. By the time all is said and done (Friday night), many communities will set multiple new records for so many consecutive days of 60°+ level warmth in the month of February. That doesn’t set well for spring vegetation. Given the look to the overall pattern in the weeks ahead, it’s hard to deny the glaring signs for additional well above normal warmth (speaking in “overall” terms). Accordingly, vegetation will likely continue to sprout and bloom early with such a pattern- even as far north as here in central IN.
That said, even in the warmest of patterns, “jabs” of late-season arctic air can make it’s presence felt. Despite our thoughts on being finished with sustained wintry conditions, we’re far from finished with cold “jabs.” With spring vegetation likely to be well ahead of schedule, concerns are valid for potential damage to early season growth as we move forward over the coming weeks.
Let’s remember, on average, it’s not until we get to mid and late April before we can signal the “all clear” on the last 32° freeze. Still have a long way to go, friends…
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Despite the lack of sunshine this morning, temperatures continue to run much milder than average. We’re currently running nearly 20° above where we should be at the 9a hour.
A quiet start to the work week is ahead as high pressure dominates early on. That said, a weak storm system will scoot through the state Monday night and Tuesday morning and this will help offer up the chance of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder.
The next (more significant) storm system will pose a severe weather risk to close the week. We continue to keep a close eye on Friday and the Storm Prediction Center is as well, with western IL, IN, and western KY in their Day 6 Outlook. It’s still early, but the primary focus with the severe potential this storm may pose will be large hail and damaging straight line winds. Stay tuned as we continue to analyze the latest data.
We’ll turn sharply colder Friday night and Saturday. Though it’ll feel much colder, we’ll really only “chill” to seasonal levels, including a gusty northwesterly breeze Saturday.
Longer-term, we’re rumbling into a much more active weather pattern through the mid range period. As the mean trough sets-up position in the west, the ridge will flex it’s muscle across the east yet again during early portions of Week 2. This will set the stage for a repeat of what we deal with Friday and, accordingly, we’ll have to monitor early next week for portions of severe weather yet again.
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