Category: snow

Mar 02

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 03.02.24 @ 6:38a

An unseasonably mild week is on tap with a couple chances of rain and embedded thunder. Widespread, organized severe weather isn’t anticipated in the upcoming week.

An anomalous upper air pattern will drive an unseasonably mild and at times wet regime, locally.
Temperatures will run well above average in the week ahead across the Central and Eastern portion of the country with unseasonably cold conditions across the West. Plenty of 60s and even 70s are in store for daytime highs in the week ahead.
Greatest deviations from normal in the rainfall department will come along the Southeast and Eastern seaboard. Slightly above normal rains are anticipated through the central Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes region.

Forecast Period: 03.02.24 – 03.09.24

After a quiet weekend (including a progressively brighter sky :-)), unsettled weather will come at us in 2 waves in the week ahead: Monday evening into Tuesday morning and again Friday evening into Saturday. In both cases, we expect widespread precipitation. In the case of our early week system, embedded thunder (non-severe) can’t be ruled out. With our late week storm system, the early call now is for more of an organized general rain to fall. Colder air will return to the region by the latter part of next weekend, potentially including some snow showers by Sunday.

Upcoming Storm Dates to keep an eye on:

  • 03.04 – 03.05
  • 03.08 – 03.10

*10-Day Rainfall Projection: 1.00” to 2.00”

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/02/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-46/

Feb 28

VIDEO: Sharply Colder Today Before A Quick Warm-Up; No Let Up To The Warm Pattern Down The Road…

Updated 02.28.24 @ 7:44a Today will serve as a reminder we are still in winter, after all, but another quick warm-up will get underway as we head through the weekend…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/28/video-sharply-colder-today-before-a-quick-warm-up-no-let-up-to-the-warm-pattern-down-the-road/

Feb 24

VIDEO: Overall, Strong Signal For Unseasonable Warmth Remains On Charts Into Early March. Watching Storms Early Next Week…

Updated 02.24.24 @ 8a Any lingering light snow showers will quickly come to an end this morning and we’ll welcome sunshine back into the picture later today. Sunday will feature…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/24/video-overall-strong-signal-for-unseasonable-warmth-remains-on-charts-into-early-march-watching-storms-early-next-week/

Feb 23

VIDEO: Tracking Snow Tonight Followed By A Quick Warm-Up And Storms Next Week…

Updated 02.23.24 @ 7:34a

A fast moving clipper system will offer up a round of snow tonight across northern and central IN. Here’s our latest thinking with respect to accumulation numbers. Snow lovers, we recommend getting out to enjoy early Saturday as an increasingly powerful late February sun angle will have many asking “what snow?!” as early as the afternoon.

A quick warm-up is on deck for the 2nd half of the weekend and we’re eyeing the potential of a couple rounds of storms Tuesday. A few of these storms could become severe, with damaging straight line winds the biggest concern from this distance with any of the severe activity that potentially develops.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/23/video-tracking-snow-tonight-followed-by-a-quick-warm-up-and-storms-next-week/

Feb 22

Just A Little Busy In The Forecast Office…

Updated 02.22.24 @ 7:20a

“Busy” is one way to describe the upcoming week to 10 days worth of weather as the pattern around these parts, and a large chunk of the East, takes on a spring look and feel. Everything from thunderstorms, rain, clipper snow, and an opportunity for strong to severe storms is included in the week ahead.

An area of low pressure will move through central and southern Indiana this afternoon, continuing to present scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area. While north-central Indiana has been the focal zone for early morning activity, we anticipate more of central and southern Indiana will be impacted throughout the afternoon and early evening.

All of this precipitation and embedded thunder will push off to the south of the area around or just after dinnertime. A quiet night is on deck with cooler air flowing back into the state. This will lead to a calm close to the work week as temperatures “warm” back to around 50° Friday afternoon as sunshine returns.

As we open the weekend, a rapidly moving clipper system will drop southeast across the region, eventually leading to several inches of wet snow for the east TN and western NC mountains. Back here on the home front, a period of snow is expected to develop late Friday night and predawn Saturday. While this certainly won’t be anything like what we saw last Friday, a wet coating of snow is possible in spots as this upper air feature dives across the region. By daybreak Saturday, all of the snow will be out of the area and we’ll be talking about working in more in the way of sunshine into the mix as our day progresses. Gusty northerly winds Saturday morning will diminish as the day wears on.

A quick warm-up is on the way for the 2nd half of the weekend. In fact, highs will approach 60° Sunday afternoon (how’s that for weather whip-lash?!). These warmer times will allow a more potent round of storm to rumble across the region as we progress through the early stages of next week. A warm front will lift northeast across the region Monday with showers and then attention turns to the threat of strong to severe thunderstorm potential as we go through our Tuesday and Wednesday. More on the specific timing and severe threats (damaging straight line wind appears to be the biggest concern from this distance) with updates to come in the days ahead.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is already highlighting the region for the opportunity of severe weather Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday (2/27) Severe Weather Outlook: Source SPC
Wednesday (2/28) Severe Weather Outlook: Source SPC

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/22/just-a-little-busy-in-the-forecast-office/

Feb 21

VIDEO: Stunner Of A Wednesday Gives Way To A Wet, Stormy Thursday; Spring-Like Pattern Early March…

Updated 02.21.24 @ 7:31a A gorgeous day is on tap with sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures into the middle 60s. Find a way to get out there and enjoy before…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/21/video-stunner-of-a-wednesday-gives-way-to-a-wet-stormy-thursday-spring-like-pattern-early-march/

Feb 20

On Cruise Control, But There Are A Few Bumps On The Road…

Updated 02.20.24 @ 5:30a

Today and Wednesday (at least during the daytime) are about as quiet and pleasant as it can get for late-February. After another cold start, we’ll quickly warm into the 50s later this afternoon. We’ll do even better than that come Wednesday as highs flirt with the 60° mark. Patio, anyone?!

Moisture won’t make a return until overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. We note modeling is honing in on central and southern Indiana for the potential of heaviest rain during the period (most of which falls Thursday morning into the afternoon) and we may also see a couple of thunderstorms thrown into the mix, especially downstate. A solid 0.50″ to 1″ appears most reasonable for area rain gauges.

Wet conditions will return to the area Thursday.

Behind this feature, a brief drop in temperatures can be expected for the weekend, but we won’t really even be able to call this air mass “cold” by late February standards. Nonetheless, trailing upper level energy and just enough cooler air will be enough to ignite a few snow showers Saturday.

Upper level energy will combine with cooler temperatures to provide an opportunity for snow showers Saturday.

We want to reiterate that this upcoming weekend’s snow potential is nothing compared to last weekend and we’ll be right back into the 50s and 60s by Sunday!

That brings us to early next week. While still a bit too far out to get specific, the potential of a more potent storm system is there and we’ll have to keep close tabs on the threat of a more widespread rain and embedded strong storm threat as we get closer. More on this feature in the days ahead.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/20/on-cruise-control-but-there-are-a-few-bumps-on-the-road/

Feb 19

VIDEO: Spring-Like Pattern To Close February And Open March…

Updated 02.19.24 @ 8:37a An upper level ridge will expand across the eastern portion of the country as we close February and open March. The result will be an increasingly…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/19/video-spring-like-pattern-to-close-february-and-open-march/

Feb 18

Taste Of Spring To Close February And Open March: Monitoring Storm Potential…

Updated 02.18.24 @ 10:59a

Though we dealt with a bitter start to the day, those strong and gusty southwest winds signal a regime change through the 1st half of the work week. Highs will pop into the 60s even by midweek- a far cry from this morning’s sub-zero “feels like” over the heart of the fresh snowpack.

This morning’s visible satellite image shows clear skies across our region and the fresh snowpack.

The upcoming 10-day period will feature an expanding ridge across the East and the ‘mean’ trough position settling into the West.

After another brief shot of cold air this weekend, a significant unseasonably mild pattern will arrive next week. Cold settles into the West.

The developing upper air pattern will lead to a more active storm track to close February and open March. See the anticipated above normal precipitation pattern taking hold. This is likely a sign of what the balance of meteorological spring will feature.

In the week ahead, we continue to track a rain maker Wednesday night into Thursday and a brief “jolt” of cold for the weekend.

Looking ahead to next week, a more widespread and stronger storm should take aim on our area. Though still a ways off, the signal is one that looks like this feature will be able to tap into the Gulf of Mexico, allowing for a more widespread, potentially, heavier rain event and also the chance of storms.

Note precipitable water values (PWATs) are forecast nearly 300% of the norm.

As we get closer, we’ll have to keep tabs on instability levels and available energy for the prospects of storms. More on this Day 8-10 feature in the coming days. Make it a great Sunday!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/18/taste-of-spring-to-close-february-and-open-march-monitoring-storm-potential/

Feb 17

Islands Of Cold In A Sea Of Milder Times…

Updated 02.17.24 @ 8:43a

Yesterday’s snow storm was a sight for sore eyes, especially for my snow-starved central Indiana friends (you know who you are).

I took a couple of these pictures outside a cozy dinner at the Loft at Traders Point Creamery last night. “Serene” doesn’t begin to describe the evening.

Low clouds and lingering lake-driven snow flurries this morning should give way to a brightening afternoon sky. We’ll stay bitter today with the fresh heavier snowpack. Highs will struggle to make it into the middle 20s. Winds will remain gusty this morning before a bit of a “lull” and then pick up yet again overnight into Sunday morning.

Another round of gusty winds will arrive overnight into Sunday morning, this time out of the southwest.

Those southwest winds will indicate a flip to milder times into midweek and overall dry conditions. Rain will return overnight Wednesday into Thursday, but doesn’t appear to be overly heavy from this distance.

After spring-like highs in the 60s midweek, another cold “jab” will take aim on the region going into next weekend. We use the term “jab” as this once again won’t be a cold air mass with staying power. We likely will quickly return back into the 50s and 60s next week after a day or two in the 30s over the weekend. Timing the cold and moisture may yet again produce a round of snow late next week and we’ll continue to keep an eye on that in the days ahead.

Overall, this will likely prove to reinforce the idea that any cold over the course of the coming couple weeks will be transient in nature. “Islands of cold in a sea of milder times.” We note ensemble guidance is particularly bullish on a spring-like pattern taking foot as we close February and open March. Far too early for details, but we may need to watch for the potential of an active severe weather setup during this time period, as well.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/17/islands-of-cold-in-a-sea-of-milder-times/

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