Category Archives: snow

Light Accumulating Snow Targets Areas Just North Of Indianapolis

Latest high resolution data overnight suggests we focus our attention from Indianapolis and points north for tonight’s light snow event.  Before that, be sure to get out today and enjoy the sunshine and one last day of relative warmth as highs zoom close to 50 for many throughout central Indiana on a gusty southwest wind this afternoon.

Light rain moves in this evening- initially around 6-7 for north-central Indiana, but may not reach the city, itself, until mid to late evening (more like 8 to 9 o’clock).  Rain will then mix with and change to snow (from north to south) during the overnight.  Our official accumulation idea looks very much like the latest high resolution NAM model.

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Specific snowfall forecasts from a few select locations for tonight into early Sunday:

  • Indianapolis: 0.50-1″
  • Northern ‘burbs (Zionsville, Carmel, Westfield): 1″-1.5″
  • Lafayette: 2-3″

In other words, this isn’t anticipated to be a huge snow event by any means.  That said, we’ll keep a close eye on things as we fine tune the timing between the arrival of the cold air and departure of precipitation tonight.  We’ll fine tune later this evening if needed.

Enjoy your Saturday!

Forecast, NAM Model, snow

Back To Winter We Go

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Forecast Updated 02.21.14 @ 7:30a

Chilly, Windy Close To The Week…After a busy Thursday night that included hail reports, damaging wind gusts, and flooding we’re looking at a calmer, yet blustery and colder close to the work week as low pressure heads north into Canada.  Winds will remain strong and gusty this morning, but begin to “relax” as we head into the afternoon, diminishing slowly through the day.  That said, it’ll remain quite blustery and much cooler than the flirt with spring Thursday.  A couple of snow showers may fly in shallow wrap around moisture this morning.

For now, we think Saturday will remain mostly dry, but a fast moving weather disturbance will scoot by to our north and could result in an increase in cloud cover Saturday afternoon.

Sunday Snow?  That remains the question, but we continue to closely monitor a disturbance that could produce accumulating snow here Sunday afternoon into Monday.  Model data is all over the place and ranges anywhere from a mainly dry day Sunday to a full blown accumulating snow event of a few inches.  It’s worth noting the Canadian is the most bullish on Sunday accumulation potential and we’re leaning more towards that direction as of now, especially when considering the way the Canadian handled the Valentine’s snow event.  Stay tuned.

Big Cold…A major league late season blast of arctic air will blow into town by the middle of next week and result in temperature close to 25-30 degrees below normal.  We’ll monitor the “goings on” late next week as indications points towards a storm brewing.  Early ideas take this mainly south of our immediate region, but we’ll continue to monitor.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast:  1-3″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.00″

 

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For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

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7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Canadian Model, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, snow, Windy

Focus On Mid Week Flood/ Storm Threat…

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Accumulating snow?

Forecast Updated: 02.19.14 @ 8:00a

One More Calm Day…A weak front blew through early Wednesday and produced a light shower for southeast parts of the state.  Sunshine will return Wednesday along with a blustery northwest wind.  It’ll be another mild day.

Concern For Flooding And Severe…With continued melting of a deep snow pack, combined with around an inch of rain (most of which falls within a 3 hour time period Thursday) and the stage will certainly be set for flooding.  In fact, we remain very concerned for flooding Thursday. If you live in a flood prone area, please prepare to seek higher ground Thursday as flood waters rise.

The second concern is a severe potential Thursday evening.  While the greatest threat for severe weather will remain south and east of our immediate region, we’ll have to be mindful of the potential of damaging straight line wind gusts Thursday evening.  The greatest threat lies between 5PM and 8PM Thursday as a line of thunderstorms pushes east through the state.  Again, damaging straight line winds, in excess of 60 MPH, is our greatest concern at present time.  Stay tuned.  Drier and much colder air will roar in behind the front Thursday night on strong and gusty northwest winds.

Weak Weekend Disturbances…A couple of fast moving disturbances will pass through the region this weekend and could spark scattered snow showers in the much colder air.

Accumulating Snow Early Next Week…Model data continues to struggle in the mid range handling energy coming east before what continues to look like a big blast of arctic air to wrap up February.  As of now, we’re targeting Tuesday for best chances of accumulating snow, but stress this a low confidence forecast in regards to timing at present.  Stay tuned.

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For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

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7-Day Outlook, Flooding, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, snow, T-storms, Windy

Messy Afternoon Commute Ahead

Latest thinking around our wintry mess due in here this afternoon places a heavier emphasis on sleet and freezing rain for central Indiana, with accumulating snow still a possibility, especially north of Indianapolis.

Overnight model data trended warmer (especially aloft) and latest high resolution, short-term, data continues that trend this morning.  While an initial push of moisture has led to snow and sleet reports already this morning, it’s around 1 o’clock when we think the true slug of moisture reaches the city, itself.  While snow can’t completely be ruled out, I’m more concerned with sleet and freezing rain potential for Indianapolis.

Officially, we’re calling for 1″ of snow/ sleet with up to two tenths of freezing rain for the city, itself.  Further north, a band of 1-3″ of snow/ sleet can be expected with only light freezing rain.  From Benton County over to Wells County, we anticipate mostly a snow event with 3-6″ of snow expected.

All of that said, we leave you with this humble disclaimer; this is easily the most difficult forecast we’ve had to make this winter.  Several factors will come into play to ultimately determine the precise precipitation zones, including track and strength of the low, precipitation rates, amount of evaporative cooling, etc.  This is a low confidence forecast when it comes to precipitation types, but our best idea is below for your viewing pleasure.  Needless to say, regardless of what type of precipitation you see this afternoon, prepare for another nasty afternoon and evening commute.  Stay safe.

UPDATED021714

Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Freezing Rain, Short term update, Sleet, snow, Winter Storm