Couple Storms To Watch And Much Colder Air…

Screen Shot 2015-11-17 at 7.30.17 AMHighlights:

  • Periods of rain
  • Turning cooler
  • Next storm offers up wintry precipitation for parts of the state
  • Early arctic blast

Periods of rain will continue into the mid to late afternoon across central IN as “wave 2” of our current storm system moves through.  We’ve added a couple simulated radar images below, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

9aFuture

2pFutureThis is all in association with a significant autumn storm system that’s been responsible for delivering hefty snows across the Rockies, blizzard conditions across the High Plains, and severe weather across the central and southern Plains.  This storm will lift northeast over the next 24-36 hours.

TuePM

WedPMA third, and final, wave of moisture will push through the state Wednesday, in a weakened state from what our friends to the west will experience (where another round of severe is expected today and tonight).  This is what the radar may look like mid-morning-ish Wednesday.

10aWedFutureWhen all is totaled up from rain that began Monday afternoon and ends Wednesday afternoon, many locales will pick up 1.5″-2″ of needed rainfall.  While significant, those numbers are lower than what originally model data implied, but we’ll take what we can get to push closer to average for November rainfall.

All eyes will then shift to our second storm system that will arrive over the weekend.  There are still more questions than answers in regards to track of this next “wave” of low pressure, but with much colder air in place and pouring in behind the system, snow will fly across northern IN.  As of now we forecast the majority of this event to fall in a liquid form across central IN, but even here precipitation may end as light snow showers the way things stand now.  Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune the track. Regardless, much colder air will be with us to end the period.

I Like It Euro…

We posted our annual IndyWx.com Winter Outlook last Saturday.  If you haven’t read it yet, or want some good material to put you to sleep :-), feel free to click here.

Tonight we see the latest seasonal long range European model shifting the Nino to more of a central-based El Nino as we rumble deeper and deeper into winter.  This is another indicator that mid and late winter could be cold.  In any event, here you go:

Nov, Dec, Jan

Screen Shot 2015-10-19 at 11.45.13 PMDec, Jan, Feb

Screen Shot 2015-10-19 at 11.45.28 PMJan, Feb, March

Screen Shot 2015-10-19 at 11.45.39 PMThere sure have been a lot of comparisons of this El Nino to that of ’97-’98.  That’s fine in talking strength, but the overall SST profile both in the Pacific AND Atlantic is vastly different.

Hmmm…time to go dream about snow storms.  – Combine a positive PDO with a central-based El Nino and there could very well be plenty of wintry “fun and games” in the months ahead.

Click here for more from the fantastic European Centre For Medium Range Forecasts site.

Friday Weather Notebook…

A cold front will pass through central IN early this afternoon. As expected, most of the region will experience a dry frontal passage (FROPA). Latest high resolution short term model…

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Updated JAMSTEC…

6:51a, 9.16.15 I tried my best to stay up late enough last night to post this update, but decided to finally turn in after nearly two collisions with me falling…

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