Category: snow

Apr 01

Lunchtime Rambles: Flooding & Severe Highlight Short-Term; Wind-Whipped Snow Midweek And Looking Ahead To An Opportunity For A Briefly Calmer Window…

Updated 04.01.24 @ 11:28a

I. Things will turn quite active later tonight and into our Tuesday. Multiple rounds of heavy rain and strong thunderstorms will track across central Indiana. As heavy rain trains over the same area, localized flooding will develop Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours.

A threat of severe weather is also present, including large hail and even a couple tornadoes. Given the current parameters, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the fine folks at the Storm Prediction Center expand the current risk zones a bit further north for both the Day 1 and Day 2 outlooks. We’re still tracking a potential line of severe weather Tuesday PM after the multiple rounds in the morning. We’ll want to remain weather-aware tonight and Tuesday across central Indiana.

II. Much colder air will pour in here Wednesday and as the closed upper level low swings through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, a renewed area of precipitation will expand across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain will mix with and even change to wet snow in spots across central Indiana during this time. Heavier wet snow bursts will lead to slushy accumulation on grassy surfaces.

Northwest winds will result in lowered visibility and a harsh feel (given the time of year) with wind chills into the 10s and 20s at times.

III. While we’ll briefly dry out in the 6-10 day, the pattern continues to present an active look down the road, including above normal rainfall projected in the Week 2 timeframe through the Plains and into the mid South and western Great Lakes region.

All in all, we don’t see any extended periods of dry weather on the horizon over the next few weeks as a whole.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/01/lunchtime-rambles-flooding-wind-whipped-snow-midweek-and-looking-ahead-to-an-opportunity-for-a-briefly-calmer-window/

Mar 31

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 03.31.24 @ 7:26a

The upcoming immediate term will be headlined by a multi day heavy rain and severe weather episode. A stalled frontal boundary will serve as the pathway for multiple waves of low pressure to ride along through Tuesday. In addition to a heavy rain and flooding threat (primarily targeting immediate central and north-central Indiana), we’ll also likely have to deal with (3) rounds of severe storms. We’ll allow our short-term products to handle those severe threats, but just know all modes of severe are on the table with the greatest emphasis being on large hail with this setup. Should a couple discrete cells develop near or just south of the boundary then an elevated tornado threat would ensue. Again, we’ll have a fresh post hoisted later this afternoon or evening on that.

Overall, there’s no change in the idea of an active pattern continuing from Week 1 (image 1 below) into Week 2 (image 2 below).

The cooler pattern behind our early week storm system will reverse in significant fashion Week 2. – Transitional regime at its finest.

Week 1 temperature anomalies

Week 2 temperature anomalies

The busy nature of the pattern is reflected in the upcoming 2 week precipitation anomalies.

Severe weather will be possible at least across a portion of our immediate viewing area starting this evening and continuing daily through Tuesday.

Colder air will crash in here Wednesday and as an upper low swirls overhead, wet snow will develop. Snow may even fall heavily enough to accumulate on grassy surfaces in spots Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

*Upcoming 10-Day Rainfall Projection: 3” to 4”+

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/31/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-49/

Mar 30

Saturday Evening Thoughts On The Pending Heavy Rain/ Severe Event…

Updated 03.30.24 @ 5:07p

There’s not much, if anything, to change regarding the setup and anticipated outcome of the Easter Sunday through Tuesday timeframe. Periods of heavy rain will get going Sunday PM and we’ll also need to watch for the threat of severe storms not only tomorrow afternoon/ evening but again Monday.

Midday models are latching onto a widespread 2”-4”+ event.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has increased the threat area tomorrow afternoon. Large hail is greatest concern but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

All modes of severe are on the table Monday, including tornado potential once again.

If all this wasn’t enough already, a much colder air mass will plunge into the region by midweek allowing rain to mix with and change to wet snow Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. The snow may even be heavy enough for slushy accumulations in spots.

Spring at its finest across the great Hoosier state…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/30/saturday-evening-thoughts-on-the-pending-heavy-rain-severe-event/

Mar 18

Quiet Open To The Week Gives Way To More Active Times…

Updated 03.18.24 @ 7:55a

The story to open the work week will be a quiet one. For a change, we’re talking about a chilly air mass settling overhead. That colder air will also feature a return of drier times.

Despite a few scattered light snow showers today, we’ll stay on the dry side until Friday.

Multiple hard freezes can be expected this week. Tuesday morning will once again feature lows deep into the 20s area-wide.

The good news? Sunshine and calm conditions can be expected during the majority of the week ahead.

That will all change by Friday as a couple low pressure systems team up to return unsettled weather to our region. Friday looks wet and chilly as of now. Rain won’t be heavy, but more of a nuisance. It’ll be a good day to hunker down and watch Day 2 of the tourney. 🏀

Though Friday won’t feature a significant storm system, it will signal a change for a more active Week 2. Heavier rain and the possibility of stronger storms can be expected next week and we’ll have more details on this as we navigate the coming days.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/18/quiet-open-to-the-week-gives-way-to-more-active-times/

Mar 17

VIDEO: Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 03.17.24 @ 8:10a The theme for the bulk of the week ahead will be both cooler and drier. A few mornings will feature a hard freeze, including overnight lows…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/17/video-weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook/

Mar 15

VIDEO: Cooler Air Flows In; Impacts On Precipitation Over The Upcoming Couple Of Weeks…

Updated 03.15.24 @ 7:29a After a busy and noisy Thursday, we are thankfully able to calm things down in significant fashion today. A narrow (insignificant) band of showers may impact…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/15/video-cooler-air-flows-in-impacts-on-precipitation-over-the-upcoming-couple-of-weeks/

Mar 13

Wednesday Morning Rambles: Talking Storms And A Cooler Pattern To Close Out March…

Updated 03.13.24 @ 5:44a

Most of today will be dry and unseasonably mild. We’ll watch radar trends this evening to see if storms are able to ignite, at least in widely scattered fashion. If this does, indeed, take place it would most likely be after sunset.

A better chance of more widespread showers and thunderstorms awaits Thursday, likely in a couple of different waves between the afternoon and evening hours.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlights far western portions of the state in a Slight risk of severe weather (damaging straight line winds are the biggest concern) Thursday. We’ll watch today’s trends to see if this needs expanded further east for potential severe impacts Thursday.

We’ll transition to a general rain Friday morning before a drier theme arrives for the 1st half of the weekend. By that point, rainfall totals should check-in between 0.50” and 1” for most.

Saturday actually isn’t looking bad with the opportunity of sun and pleasant temperatures ahead of a colder push of air Sunday night. Speaking of that, temperatures should grow cold enough to allow snow to fly across the region by Monday morning. Despite the recent stretch of unseasonably warm temperatures, we can’t rule out heavier snow bursts creating a quick coating to dusting of wet snow on grassy surfaces.

Ah, storms to snow- March at its finest in the Hoosier state.

As we look ahead to the remainder of March, the pattern appears to be in position to lead to a colder than normal regime for a change. It should be noted that we don’t see any significant cold during the late month time frame, rather a setup that should drive a slightly cooler than normal pattern (overall) over the last 10 days, or so of the month.

More on how we think April opens later this week in our long range report.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/13/wednesday-morning-rambles-talking-storms-and-a-cooler-pattern-to-close-out-march/

Mar 12

VIDEO: High And Dry Now, But Changes Loom As Early As Tomorrow; Colder Pattern Takes Shape Next Week…

Updated 03.12.24 @ 5:44a High pressure will remain in control of our weather today with plentiful sunshine and unseasonably mild temperatures. More in the way of unsettled weather builds in…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/12/video-high-and-dry-now-but-changes-loom-as-early-as-tomorrow-colder-pattern-takes-shape-next-week/

Mar 11

VIDEO: Warm Times This Week Give Way To A Colder Pattern; Unsettled Late Week And Potential Of Snow By Early Next Week…

Updated 03.11.24 @ 7:51a It’s more of the same this week as unseasonably warm temperatures dominate the headlines. We’ll turn unsettled by late week and this will signal a pattern…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/11/video-warm-times-this-week-give-way-to-a-colder-pattern-unsettled-late-week-and-potential-of-snow-by-early-next-week/

Mar 10

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 03.10.24 @ 8:21a

Another unseasonably mild week awaits, but one thing is becoming increasingly clear: we’re not finished with the cold yet. The transition to a colder time of things next week will come with unsettled conditions late this week and the weekend (I know, timing isn’t on our side).

An upper level ridge will dominate in the week ahead, but note the building heights late in the period across western NA. That will help promote a different (colder) airmass here over the wknd into early next week.
Warmer than average temperatures can be expected this week from the Plains and points east.
Precipitation should check in right around average this week across central IN and the Ohio Valley as a whole.

Forecast Period: 03.10.24 – 03.17.24

The period will open with dry and seasonably chilly conditions before a southwesterly flow takes hold and helps promote yet another quick warm-up in the work week ahead. A weak and fast moving system may deliver some scattered showers midweek but the lions share of our moisture this week will come Thursday and Friday. Colder air then pours in here over the weekend with the potential of snow getting involved by this time next week.

Upcoming Storm Dates to keep an eye on:

  • 03.13
  • 03.14 – 03.15
  • 03.16 – 03.17

*10-Day Rainfall projection: 0.75” – 1.50”

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/10/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-47/

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