Category Archives: snow

Wednesday Evening Rambles…Cold Reinforcements Tonight; Weekend Moderation…

I.  A look at the current snowpack shows the northwest flow nicely, and another storm is just missing central Indiana to the north and northeast this evening (not included in this morning’s snowpack update).  The southern Appalachians have also been capitalizing in this northwest flow pattern, not to mention the southern stream event that dumped hefty snows on the Deep South.

II.  While the sticking snows will miss us this go around, scattered snow showers will impact central IN overnight into early Thursday morning.  There’s also still the potential of a skinny lake effect snow band to impact a narrow portion of western and north-central IN early Thursday.

III.  Reinforcing cold air will plunge south Thursday.  Highs will remain below freezing along with wind chill values in the 10s most of the day.

IV: A milder southwesterly air flow will result in slightly “warmer” temperatures this weekend (mid 40s for highs Saturday) before showers arrive to close the weekend.  Despite the slight relaxation of the cold, this will come with a gusty breeze over the weekend.

No Comments Arctic Cold, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, snow, Weather Rambles, Windy

Weekend Moderation…

Highlights:

  • Northern IN snow
  • Weekend moderation
  • Showers early next week

Majority Of Snow To Our North, Northeast…A fast moving northwest flow will continue to zip upper air disturbances across the Plains into the Great Lakes and northeast.  As has been the case for the past week, central IN will remain too far south to benefit in the snow department from these systems.  A light shower is possible this afternoon with gusty winds followed by a couple of light snow showers this evening as the cold returns.  If your travels take you to north-central IN or into Ohio, you’ll be more likely to encounter slick roads.

A skinny lake effect snow band may set up shop overnight into early Thursday.  Unlike the past event, this would favor west-central parts of the state.

We’ll wrap up the work week on a mostly dry note and that theme will continue as we open the weekend.  A milder southwest push of air will send temperatures to slightly above average levels this weekend and we’ll introduce showers into our forecast early next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.40″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Tuesday Evening Rambles: Wintry Weather And More Christmas Week Chatter…

I.) The pattern we’re currently dealing with is one that presents multiple challenges in the near term.  East-central and northeastern portions of the state have gotten in on the snow act today, but, so far, most of central Indiana has missed out on the snowy goods. With such a fast-paced northwest flow, we have to remain on guard for potential “surprises” in this pattern.  Perhaps the HRRR is beginning to pick up on this.  Latest runs want to deliver a “pop” of snow Wednesday morning, associated with “warm” air advection (WAA).  We’ll monitor tonight.

9a forecast radar Wednesday

II.  The northwest flow will continue to provide disturbances plenty capable of producing periods of snow again Wednesday evening through the end of the week.  Are these monster storms?  Hardly, but they can “suddenly” become sufficient enough to create travel problems given the pattern.  For those who live across the northern half of the state, plan to keep close tabs to local forecasts if you have travel plans through the end of the week.

III.  A period of brief moderation will come in this pattern early Christmas week, but all eyes continue to focus on the period between December 22nd through December 26th for the potential of impactful weather across our region.  For model “worshipers” out there, we suggest paying more attention to overall trends, and a blend of ensemble data, as opposed to specifics associated with operational runs.  It’s a “jailbreak” pattern of sorts as true arctic air will be pouring down the Plains while the southeastern ridge tries to fight for a time.  The resistance from the southeastern ridge and associated tight thermal gradient should promote a very stormy regime for the interior (Ohio Valley into the interior northeast) as we head into the true holiday/ Christmas stretch.  As of now, we favor the idea of multiple waves along the pressing arctic boundary, as opposed to one big storm.  Looking back through the records shows some of the heaviest snows at IND have come from similar set-ups.  Understanding each set-up is unique, the overall pattern does have to raise an eye brow for potential of wintry weather in, or around, our region as Christmas approaches…

No Comments Arctic Cold, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles, Winter thoughts...

Another Cold Week; Snow Showers Develop Overnight…

Highlights:

  • Snow showers develop overnight
  • Another arctic shot
  • Milder for the weekend

Snow Showers Develop Overnight…Another fast moving upper air disturbance is on the move southeast this morning and will result in a mostly cloudy and blustery open to the work week. As cold air advection (CAA) kicks in overnight and Tuesday, snow showers will develop across the region.  We’ll also note the potential of a more intense and persistent lake effect band setting up across east-central Indiana (where a couple inches will accumulate Tuesday).  If your travels take you into eastern and northeastern portions of the state Tuesday, prepare for sudden drops in visibility and slick travel.

Additional upper level energy will scoot through here during the middle part of the work week and while this will help to reinforce the cold, it’ll also provide scattered snow showers.

We’ll switch gears and get into a briefly milder southwesterly air flow over the upcoming weekend.  Strong and gusty southwest winds will aid in giving a boost to the mercury, but showers will make for a damp end to the weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting (for most) to 2″ across east-central Indiana
  • Rainfall: 0.25″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy