A burst of snow will move across central Indiana during the predawn hours (a few hours earlier than guidance suggested). Precipitation will become more widespread late morning into the early afternoon hours and as milder air aloft arrives on the scene, light snow will transition to sleet and freezing rain before ending. Further north (Kokomo to Ft. Wayne), precipitation is expected to remain all snow where 1”-3” will fall today before ending. Highs will top out around the freezing mark later this afternoon before falling into the middle 20s tonight. A few slick spots may develop on area roadways.
Much more later this morning on the week ahead and what looms further down the road as we wrap up the month.
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Last spring was a tale of two seasons in itself. March (featured a foot of snow) and April were significantly colder than normal and then we shifted things to summer in May (the last month of meteorological spring was close to 10 degrees above normal). As a whole, it was a quiet severe weather season.
Despite the wild swings, at the end of the day, things “balanced out” nicely across the central Ohio Valley, including central Indiana.
As we look ahead to what the 2019 version holds, here are a few headlines that have our attention:
I. Weak Nino is behaving more like a Nina (Tropical Northern Hemisphere pattern can be thanked for this).
II. Neutral NAO is expected
III. Neutral PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)
In addition, we’re paying special attention to the SST configuration in the Gulf of Mexico. A warmer than average GOM can most certainly lead to a more “hyper” severe weather season as spring gets going.
The late winter/ early spring drought monitor can give a hint where early warmth may try and get going. However, this year, we can’t rely on this tool as the Plains and East, including the heart of the #AGbelt, have seen copious amounts of moisture over the winter.
Drought Monitor as of 2/14/19December 2018 Precipitation AnomaliesJanuary 2019 Precipitation Anomalies
Let’s look at what the model guidance is printing out for meteorological spring:
JMA
March
April
May
CFSv2
JAMSTEC
European Seasonal
Summary
We anticipate a slightly warmer than average spring season across not only central Indiana, but the Mid West and Ohio Valley region, as a whole. A weak El Nino is expected to persist into the upcoming summer and the conditions typically associated with such should eventually show themselves (as opposed to more of a Nina-like flavor now) through the spring. We agree with the consensus of model guidance above that March is likely to feature the coldest temperatures, relative to normal, and that’s primarily due to what should be a colder 1st half of the month before more bonafide spring conditions take hold the 2nd half of the month. Precipitation is anticipated to run near average, if not slightly below average, levels through the spring. As for severe weather, we expect a much busier season than last year, especially with the warm SSTs lurking in the Gulf of Mexico.
We’re heading into the 2nd consecutive weekend with a snowy close across at least portions of central Indiana- especially along and north of I-70. Upper level energy will get snow going during the predawn hours Sunday before potentially a more significant period of snow takes hold late morning into the afternoon. This is thanks to a surface wave moving northeast along the OH River eventually into western PA. We believe just north of the surface low a stripe of snow (potentially to the tune of 3″ to 5″) will develop from east-central IN into OH and on into central PA. We’ll have to fine tune this as we progress into the weekend. Please stay tuned.
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