Category: Sleet

Dec 13

Client Brief: Impactful Winter Weather Event Sunday Evening Through Monday…

Type: Impactful Winter Weather

What: Accumulating snow; mixed wintry precipitation

When: Sunday evening through Monday

Temperatures: Lower to middle 30s

Wind: East 10 to 15 MPH, shifting to the north Monday night with gusts to 25 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal

We continue to closely monitor the potential of an impactful winter weather maker Sunday evening through Monday. Initially, we think “overrunning” precipitation will overspread central Indiana Sunday afternoon and evening. This should fall in the form of snow for most. As the surface low draws closer, precipitation will increase in intensity Sunday night into the day Monday. The all-important track of the surface low appears to take a path from western Arkansas Sunday night, along the Ohio River Monday morning and into western Pennsylvania by Monday night. This is a favorable track for accumulating snow across portions of the state. The map above features our “ridiculously” early idea on best chances where the heavier snowfall will occur (shoveable totals seem like a good bet for places in and around Indianapolis and points north). Downstate, enough warmer air should get pulled into the system for a time Sunday night into Monday morning that a wintry mix of precipitation (sleet, snow, and rain) is expected to cut down snowfall totals. As the storm pulls up to our northeast, gusty northerly winds will develop with lingering snow showers in Monday night, along with colder conditions.

We’ll have an updated video post later this evening and will keep close eyes on data not only today, but straight through the weekend.

Confidence: Medium-High

Next Update: This evening (Video)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-impactful-winter-weather-event-sunday-evening-through-monday/

Nov 23

Client Brief: Wet Snow Develops This Afternoon Into The Evening…

Type: Impactful Winter Weather

What: Accumulating wet snow

When: This afternoon into early evening 

Temperatures: Falling from the upper 30s early afternoon to around 30° by late evening.

Wind: North 20-25 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Non-existent to minimal

Pavement Impacts: Salting required. Plowing will also likely be needed across east-central Indiana.

There’s an old saying in the weather business of an “upper low being a weatherman’s foe.” That’s particularly true early and late in the season due to the added complexities of marginally cold air typically available. As we discussed over the past week, the dynamics and cold air these type of systems can manufacture also creates added headache. Many instances these kind of systems result in essentially a “now cast” scenario. With all of that said, our confidence is increasing after another look at overnight model runs to put out the snowfall forecast above. Rain will overspread central Indiana late morning into the early afternoon, however, as the precipitation rates increase, we’ll notice a transition to wet snow this afternoon into the evening. There could also be a brief wintry mix, including sleet, during the transition to wet snow. Banding features will likely develop late afternoon into early evening leading to heavier snowfall across east-central parts of the state where we have the 1″ to 3″ snowfall forecast up. For the remainder of central Indiana, most should be closer to a coating with a few 1″ reports. The snow will exit even far eastern areas before midnight.

Confidence: Medium

Next Update: This afternoon

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-wet-snow-develops-this-afternoon-into-the-evening/

Nov 17

VIDEO: Week Ahead Outlook; Greenland Block Leads To An “Interesting” Pattern Around Thanksgiving…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-week-ahead-outlook-greenland-block-leads-to-an-interesting-pattern-around-thanksgiving/

Feb 24

Sunday Morning Video: Repeat Next Weekend?

Is another damaging wind event on the horizon next weekend?

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-morning-video-repeat-next-weekend/

Feb 19

All-Access Client Brief: Plowable Snow Moves In Overnight…

Brief: Heavy Snow & Sleet

Forecaster: McMillan

What: Heavy Snow & Sleet

When: 12a to 8a Wednesday

Temperatures: Upper 20s to lower 30s

Wind: E 15-25 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Moderate before mixing with sleet

The setup remains the same as a warm front lifts north during the overnight. Copious amounts of moisture will arrive into central Indiana and with cold air in place, a period of moderate to heavy snow will develop. Timing into the city, itself, should come around, or just before, midnight. While the snow will be of the heavy, wet variety, gusty easterly winds will result in blowing and drifting snow (especially on north-south roadways) before precipitation transitions to sleet. We’ve “beefed” our accumulation forecast up to include a 3″ to 5″ band across east-central Indiana, including Indianapolis, as short-term guidance is indicating a period of significant “forcing” (or lift in the atmosphere) that will lead to heavy snowfall rates before the transition to sleet. A couple of hours with snowfall rates in excess of 1″ per hour will likely be observed in that 1a to 3a window. Precipitation will transition to sleet and a period of freezing rain between 3a and 5a from south to north, before turning to all rain in the city before sunrise. Further north, a transition to rain won’t be noticed until after 8a, but the majority of precipitation will likely be over with by that point (just lingering drizzle and fog).

Confidence: High

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/all-access-client-brief-plowable-snow-moves-in-overnight/