Category: Sleet

All-Access Morning Video Update: Tracking 3 Storm Systems And An Overall Shift To A Colder Pattern…

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No Rest For The Weary; Reviewing The New European Weeklies…

In the short-term, rainfall will increase in overall coverage and intensity as we progress through the overnight and on into Tuesday morning.

Most central Indiana rain gauges can expect to accumulate between 0.50″ and 1.00″ tonight into Tuesday morning. Heavier amounts will be found downstate.

We continue to closely monitor the precise track of vigorous upper level energy that will result in a narrow, but more intense, band of snow Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours. While temperatures will be marginal, it wouldn’t shock us in the least by a wet 1″ to 2″ stripe of snow that’s laid down in a narrow southwest to northeast corridor and this will warrant close attention with subsequent model updates overnight. An early idea of where this may be is below:

Regardless of where this potentially more significant snowband lies, all of us will get in on the “backlash” snow showers/ squall action Tuesday evening and night.

Looking ahead, continued active times loom. We’re tracking additional storms Thursday night into Friday and again over the upcoming weekend. Yet another storm is slated for an arrival early parts of the following week. As cold air continues to get more involved, these storm systems will be plenty capable of dealing out more in the way of wintry “fun and games,” but the pattern is “hectic” right now and each storm will have to be dealt with as they come. Understanding that it’s still in the 6-10 day time period, the storm early next week seems to have the greatest potential of widespread wintry implications of significance. This is given the overall pattern evolution away from the “transitional” period we’re currently in and squarely inside the cold/ wintry window we’ve been outlining from 2/18 through 3/10. Time will tell…

European Weeklies

The new European Weeklies show the cold currently confined to the PAC NW and northern Plains “spreading out” and encompassing a more widespread portion of the country- especially from the Appalachians and points west (but periodically making it as far east as the coast). The cold is forecast by the model to dive deep into the southern Plains and into the Southeast as we move into the latter parts of February into early March. Perhaps the biggest change from tonight’s update from Thursday is the idea that the cold will linger deeper into March than previously thought. (Please note this doesn’t change our current *official* idea of cold lifting by mid-month, but simply just rehashing model output). Let’s see if we can get some consistency to develop before altering our current forecast.

From a teleconnection stand point, the model does take the NAO neutral to negative late Feb into early March before returning things solidly positive by mid-month.

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Period Of Severe Cold Arrives Early-Mid Week…

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Winter Storm Update: Significant Impacts Still Expected Later Today…

While the “1st half” of the storm certainly has been a challenge, we still anticipate a high impact situation to develop this afternoon into tonight across the region.

Our updated snowfall forecast:

Saturday morning video update breaking down the details:

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/winter-storm-update-significant-impacts-still-expected-later-today/

Late Friday Night Update…

A significant winter storm is on our doorstep and will begin to impact all of the region in the coming hours.  Low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves northeast out of Oklahoma, Arkansas, and into Kentucky.  As this takes place, copious amounts of moisture will lift north into central Indiana.  We think precipitation reaches Indianapolis, itself, during the overnight (likely between 3a and 4a).

The bulk of the northern half of the state is still expected to receive predominantly snow with this storm.  However, things get much more tricky along the I-70 corridor (10 to 20 miles either side) as temperatures will be “marginal” early on in the event (aloft and at the surface) and will lead to quite the headache for the first several hours of this storm.  Even as of this update, confidence is low on precipitation type for the I-70 corridor, itself.  A difference of half a degree (F) can mean a world of difference with precipitation type (snow, freezing rain, sleet, or rain).  Admittedly, concern is growing for the potential of icing in this area before the deeper cold air can arrive and switch things over to snow.  On the other hand, should precipitation rates be heavy enough, it’s certainly possible these heavier rates will cool the entire column of air quicker than high resolution modeling currently suggests and a quicker transition to snow would result.  “Boom or bust” potential is higher than normal along the immediate I-70 corridor.

Given the above, and the potential of a “deformation band” of snow to develop during the 2nd half of the storm, our forecast snowfall totals remain unchanged.

Stay tuned and please know we’ll have another update posted Saturday morning.

The other big concern here is the fact that east-northeast winds will turn increasingly strong and gusty as the day gives way to afternoon and evening.  Winds may gust as high as 40 to 50 MPH at times during this time period as the storm heads off to the northeast.  Even if you accumulate an inch of snow, expect blowing and drifting issues to result.  Combine that with rapidly falling temperatures Saturday evening and the stage will be set for slick and hazardous travel throughout the region.

Much more in a few hours around this storm and additional “fun and games” that await next week… (Please send coffee ;-)).

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