Category: Short term update

Dec 30

Clipper Delivers Light Snow For NYE…

Updated 12.30.23 @ 7:54a

Despite our New Year’s Eve clipper, we’re heading for an unusually quiet weather pattern to open up the new year. The upcoming 10 days are forecast to run well below average from a precipitation standpoint.

In fact, after tomorrow’s light snow, it may not be until late next weekend or closer towards January 10th that we’re talking about our next precipitation chances. Rare, indeed, for this time of year.

Back to this morning’s headline and our clipper. Sunday should dawn dry but light snow will begin to become more widespread across central Indiana by mid to late morning.

Light snow will continue to fall through the early afternoon before we get into a brief lull in the activity. During this time frame we can also expect 10-20 MPH winds which may limit visibility slightly as the light snow falls. Daytime accumulation, if any, should be no more than a dusting.

After the lull in the activity, a second round of light snow will develop towards 10p to 11p, or so.

Though still light in nature, temperatures will settle below the freezing mark as this secondary batch of light snow falls.

While certainly not a heavy event by any means, just enough light snow and temperatures falling below freezing will likely create some localized slick spots across central Indiana tomorrow evening.

(Snow removal Clients, salting is recommended tomorrow evening).

Those with NYE plans out and about should allow extra time traveling home tomorrow evening. Light snow will diminish during the overnight and drier conditions should return for New Year’s Day, itself.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/30/clipper-delivers-light-snow-for-nye/

Aug 06

Short-Term Severe Weather Discussion…

Updated 08.06.23 @ 9:54a

Despite a few light morning showers, our Sunday will feature dry conditions through the remainder of the daylight hours along with increasing sunshine. The disturbance responsible for Saturday’s severe weather and unsettled conditions is on the way east while we wait a new potent disturbance on deck from the west. Unfortunately, this second disturbance has eyes set on our region tonight and will pose a dangerous overnight severe weather risk.

All modes of severe weather will be possible, including damaging winds, large hail, and a couple of quick spin-up tornadoes. It wouldn’t surprise me if a portion of the current ‘Slight Risk’ area is upgraded to an ‘Enhanced Risk’ across southern IN in future SPC (Storm Prediction Center) updates this afternoon.

From a timing standpoint, storms should approach western Indiana towards 10p, or so and then continue to advance east, southeast into the late evening and overnight hours.

Discrete cells may try and organize into more of a congealed line as we push closer towards midnight and, as such, the threat of a damaging wind event will become the eventual primary concern as we move through the early Monday morning hours across the southern half of Indiana.

Before heading to bed this evening, be sure to have a means of getting the latest warning information as there will likely be multiple warnings issued late this evening and into the early portion of the overnight.

Quieter (albeit briefly) weather conditions will return as we move through the first couple days of the new work week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/06/short-term-severe-weather-discussion/

Jul 08

Wet, Stormy Open To The Weekend Before 2nd Half Improvements…

Updated 07.08.23 @ 6:28a

There’s no need for an alarm clock this morning, friends. A widespread complex of rain and storms continues to push into central Indiana at 6:30a.

We’ll have to deal with a few hours of rain and thunder before things begin to dry out mid and late morning (west to east). Sunshine should also slowly work back into the picture enough to help destabilize things just enough for a second (less widespread) round of showers and storms by this evening. These will likely initiate around the city with more widespread coverage south.

5p forecast radar Saturday

We’ll then all enjoy a greatly improved weather pattern by tonight continuing into Sunday. Lower humidity and pleasantly warm temperatures will make up a beautiful 2nd half of the weekend.

More on the long range pattern a bit later today in our client video discussion.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/08/wet-stormy-open-to-the-weekend-before-2nd-half-improvements/

Jul 04

Wednesday Evening Rumbles…

Updated 07.04.23 @ 10:53p

Most of our hump day should feature quiet conditions. A couple renegade storms will likely fire up during the mid to late afternoon hours. These will be ahead of a more organized line of storms impacting Illinois. That particular line will rumble east into the state towards 10p to 11p and likely reach the city, itself, around midnight.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) includes central Indiana in a ‘marginal’ risk of severe weather Wednesday. Damaging straight line winds are of biggest concern with this line.

While we’ll need to monitor radar trends and overall timing, as of this evening, it doesn’t appear that this will be a widespread severe weather maker (available energy and a late evening arrival argue against this being a significant event).

On the road early tomorrow morning but will be sure to have a fresh video update posted Wednesday evening with updates on the above and a look ahead to the next couple weeks.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/04/wednesday-evening-rumbles/

Jun 29

Short-Term Discussion: Afternoon Storm Complex With Heightened Damaging Wind Potential…

Updated 06.29.23 @ 12p

The storm complex currently entering IL will likely have a downstream impact on Indiana later this afternoon into the early evening hours. Several ingredients are in place that leads to a higher confidence in this storm cluster including a widespread damaging wind threat (55+ MPH gusts).

High resolution data continues to show this complex gaining steam as it rolls across central Indiana between 4p and 6p. We caution, these kind of storm clusters can pick up momentum downstream so it’ll be important to remain weather-aware and in position to act when (don’t think it’s a matter of “if” any longer) warnings are issued really anytime after 3p.

Ingredients are in play that may carry this wind machine across the entire central IN stretch and even into northern KY and southwestern OH by evening.

I’d recommend taking the opportunity to ensure your electronic devices are charged and severe weather safety plan is in place now prior to this activity moving in over the next few hours. Unfortunately the evolving look to current radar trends just after the 12p timeframe only raises confidence of this being a rather widespread damaging wind maker with resulting power outages.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/06/29/short-term-discussion-afternoon-storm-complex-with-heightened-damaging-wind-potential/

Jun 24

Active Sunday On Tap As We Track 2 Rounds Of Storms…

Updated 06.24.23 @ 9:20p

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/06/24/active-sunday-on-tap-as-we-track-2-rounds-of-storms/

Apr 26

Evolution Of Things Into Early Next Week…

Updated 04.26.23 @ 6:44a

Today and Thursday morning are “easy peasy.” Look for dry times and plentiful sunshine today giving way to increasing clouds Thursday morning.

Those clouds will give way to a shield of rain lifting from our southwest to northeast late Thursday morning into Friday morning, courtesy of an initial wave of low pressure moving into the Ohio Valley.

Generally, heaviest rain within this time period will fall across southeast Indiana.

Amounts of a half inch (locally heavier) seems like a good call as far northwest as Indianapolis and surrounding ‘burbs.

As we head into the weekend the trend will once again be a cooler one, with the emphasis placed on the 2nd half of the weekend for the coolest air and more unsettled conditions (showery nature but nothing heavy expected). 60s Saturday will be replaced with 50s Sunday. Eventually, as skies clear and winds calm, another opportunity for frost looms Monday or Tuesday morning of next week as lows fall into the middle 30s.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/04/26/evolution-of-things-into-early-next-week/

Apr 05

Stormy Day Ahead Of A Gorgeous Easter Weekend…

Updated 04.05.23 @ 7:13a

Today is one of those days where it will be important to remain weather-aware and have a means of getting the latest warnings that will likely be issued. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to include all of the state in an ‘enhanced risk’ of severe weather today. All modes of severe weather are in play with the greatest emphasis placed on damaging straight line wind potential, but a couple of tornadoes can’t be ruled out. Large hail is also possible, especially if we get discrete cells to pop ahead of the main line later this afternoon (more on that below).

Out the door this morning, it’s easy to understand the environment is one conducive of stormy weather. We’re already in the middle 70s at the 7a hour (that will be close to our high today) and dew points are into the lower to middle 60s. Instability will increase in the coming hours and it won’t be long before a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watch is issued for a part, if not most, of the state.

As we time out the arrival of storms, we think things unfold in 2 waves today. The first round of storms likely comes from individual cells, or clusters, mid to late morning. These will be scattered in nature but have the potential to rotate and also produce large hail.

The 2nd wave will come from a more widespread squall line and that’s where we anticipate the greatest opportunity of damaging straight line winds. Please note this doesn’t mean there still couldn’t be a quick spin-up tornado embedded within the squall line.

The other item to add here has to do with gradient winds that will approach 50 MPH even outside of thunderstorms. If you haven’t already, we’d highly encourage bringing in or securing any loose objects that could easily be blown about.

Weather conditions will rapidly improve from west to east as we move into the evening hours and this will set the stage for the remainder of the week, including our Easter weekend. High pressure will build overhead and supply an extended stretch of sunny days and calm nights, including lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s, eventually warming into the 60s for highs this weekend, and into the 70s early next week.

Please be sure to remain weather-aware today and heed any warnings that will likely be issued in the coming hours.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/04/05/stormy-day-ahead-of-a-gorgeous-easter-weekend/

Mar 31

Friday Afternoon Briefing: Severe Threat Continues To Increase…

Updated 03.31.23 @ 2:15p

The talented folks over at the Storm Prediction Center have increased the Day 1 severe threat to now include most of the state in a Moderate (level 4 out 5) risk. It should also be pointed out that all modes of severe weather are in play, including tornadoes, some of which could be long track.

We continue to believe discrete cells will begin to fire later this evening (targeting initiation between 4p and 6p) across the state and it won’t take much for these to begin to show signs of rotation. If you don’t have to travel tonight, we recommend making it a night in and keeping tuned to the latest watches and warnings that will be sure to come.

As we progress deeper into the evening and early overnight hours, that’s when we expect a squall line, capable of producing damaging straight line winds, to march across the state from west to east. We bracket the hours of 10p to 2a west to east for impacts. In addition to the heightened damaging wind threat, it’s possible some of the embedded cells within the line will try and rotate, leading to a spin up tornado potential within the advancing line, especially for western and central parts of the state.

No need for panic or alarm, these events take place every year around these parts. Just ensure to review your severe weather plan and stay tuned to local media for the latest warnings that will be issued later this afternoon and into the evening.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/31/friday-afternoon-briefing-severe-threat-continues-to-increase/

Mar 30

Latest Details; Timing Out Storms Friday Into The Overnight…

Updated 03.30.23 @ 7:48a

Today is easy. We’ll have a few clouds drifting through the state at times, but also expect a good deal of sunshine and temperatures warming into the upper 50s to lower 60s after the cold start to the day.

In the short-term, all eyes remain squarely focused on Friday into the early morning hours Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center’s latest severe weather outlook Friday places all of the state in some sort of risk of severe. Far northeastern Indiana (Auburn and Angola) is in a “marginal” risk. The majority of the state, including Indianapolis, Bloomington, South Bend, and Lafayette is in a “slight” risk, and places such as Terre Haute down to Evansville and Jasper is included in an “enhanced” risk. Bottom line, all of us can expect a threat of severe weather tomorrow and it’ll be important to have a means of getting the latest information regarding any warnings that will likely be issued.

As we time things out, we’ll wake up to widespread showers and embedded thunder Friday morning, but most, if not all, of this activity will remain well below severe levels.

Showers and embedded thunder (non-severe) will be with us out the door Friday morning

It’s as we progress into tomorrow evening and the overnight that the concern of severe weather will increase. We bracket the hours of 10p and 3a from west to east that should feature a heightened risk of severe, with the biggest concern being damaging straight line winds with a line of storms that will roll across the state. There’s also an opportunity for a couple of discrete cells within the broader line to rotate and produce a tornado or two.

A line of severe storms is expected to impact the state Friday night. We bracket 10p (west) to 3a (southeast) for the biggest impacts.
Forecast radar at 12a Saturday.

We also want to be sure to hit on the “gradient” (non thunderstorm) winds that will impact the entire area. Gusts approaching 50 MPH can be expected Friday afternoon/ evening and again Saturday morning into the afternoon.

Speaking of Saturday- it’ll feature improving conditions from a severe perspective, but we’ll be left with falling temperatures (it’ll be one of those days with a “midnight high”), gusty winds, and a few leftover light showers. After a high around 60° at midnight, temperatures will be spent in the 30s and 40s most of the day with colder ‘chills.

Bigger improvements are on deck Sunday before we have to turn our attention to our next severe weather episode early next week. More on that and updated long range thoughts later this evening.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/30/latest-details-timing-out-storms-friday-into-the-overnight/

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