Category: Short term update

Mar 23

Settling In From The Road: Quick Review Of Latest Thoughts…

I apologize for not having an update out sooner, but have been on the road all day and just getting settled in.  With that said, I’ve been keeping up-to-date with the latest model data and really have no significant changes to our ongoing snowfall forecast:

Latest highlights:

  • A cold rain will overspread the state during the overnight
  • Expect rain to change to wet snow during the pre-dawn hours for Indianapolis and surrounding areas
  • Heavy wet snow will continue through the morning and afternoon and where heaviest bands set up, snowfall rates of 1″+ per hour can be anticipated
  • Winds will gust to 30 MPH+ into the evening hours Saturday
  • Snow will diminish from northwest to southeast Saturday evening
  • As we always say, late March snow events always bring surprises and while bust potential is present (both on the high and low side on the going forecast), this is our best idea and it’ll be fun to watch things unfold.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/settling-in-from-the-road-quick-review-of-latest-thoughts/

Aug 05

Wednesday Morning Update…

Good morning and happy Wednesday! Forecast models continue to provide a bit of a headache concerning our developing weather situation, but here’s our best take moving forward: The morning is…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wednesday-morning-update/

Jun 10

Tuesday Evening Video Update!

Good evening and thank you for logging onto IndyWx.com!  Tonight’s video covers the unsettled time of things tonight into Wednesday morning as low pressure continues to have a hold on our area’s weather.  Also, we talk long range weather and give you an idea of what you can expect for the rest of the month of June, temperature-wise!  While we didn’t get into the precipitation side of things in tonight’s video for late month, I will say it continues to look very unsettled with above average rainfall anticipated to wrap up the month of June.  Anywhere from an additional 3-5″ of rain is possible as we go through the rest of the month here across central Indiana.

While the CFSv2 can be a bit erratic at times, we feel the model has a good handle on the way the overall pattern will evolve late June into July.

While the CFSv2 can be a bit erratic at times, we feel the model has a good handle on the way the overall pattern will evolve late June into July.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-evening-video-update/

Jun 09

Soaking Rain Ahead Tuesday Into Wednesday.

We still think most of today is dry and while we’re off to a cloudy start, the latest scan of the visible satellite image would suggest some brightening of the sky is a good bet from time to time late morning into the afternoon.

20140609_1145_sm_EVV_vis

Enjoy whatever sunshine you see today, as clouds begin to lower and thicken this evening and widespread rain won’t be far behind.  The simulated radar shows rain and embedded thunder will be rather widespread Tuesday.

6am Tuesday future radar product

6am Tuesday future radar product

11a Tuesday future radar product

11a Tuesday future radar product

2a Wednesday future radar product

2a Wednesday future radar product

Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2″ will be a good bet between Tuesday and Wednesday and we feel the short-term, high resolution, NAM forecast model has a good handle on the distribution of precipitation.  There will be locally heavier totals.

hires_t_precip_ky_20

We’ll have your complete 7-day forecast updated and posted later this evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/soaking-rain-ahead-tuesday-into-wednesday/

Feb 17

Messy Afternoon Commute Ahead

Latest thinking around our wintry mess due in here this afternoon places a heavier emphasis on sleet and freezing rain for central Indiana, with accumulating snow still a possibility, especially north of Indianapolis.

Overnight model data trended warmer (especially aloft) and latest high resolution, short-term, data continues that trend this morning.  While an initial push of moisture has led to snow and sleet reports already this morning, it’s around 1 o’clock when we think the true slug of moisture reaches the city, itself.  While snow can’t completely be ruled out, I’m more concerned with sleet and freezing rain potential for Indianapolis.

Officially, we’re calling for 1″ of snow/ sleet with up to two tenths of freezing rain for the city, itself.  Further north, a band of 1-3″ of snow/ sleet can be expected with only light freezing rain.  From Benton County over to Wells County, we anticipate mostly a snow event with 3-6″ of snow expected.

All of that said, we leave you with this humble disclaimer; this is easily the most difficult forecast we’ve had to make this winter.  Several factors will come into play to ultimately determine the precise precipitation zones, including track and strength of the low, precipitation rates, amount of evaporative cooling, etc.  This is a low confidence forecast when it comes to precipitation types, but our best idea is below for your viewing pleasure.  Needless to say, regardless of what type of precipitation you see this afternoon, prepare for another nasty afternoon and evening commute.  Stay safe.

UPDATED021714

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/messy-afternoon-commute-ahead/