I. Unseasonably cool weather dominates the area to open the period with a late warming trend.
II. Widespread dry conditions persist through the upcoming week.
Between the cool pattern to open the period and warmth to end, temperatures will balance out very close to “average” for the period as a whole.
The forecast period will run much drier than normal from the Plains and points east. The one exception? Along the Carolina coast, thanks to a stalled cold front.
We’re only forecasting 0.10″ to 0.25″ over the upcoming 7-day period across central Indiana.
Forecast Period: 06.13.20 through 06.20.20
A very quiet weather pattern is ahead through the forecast period. A weak disturbance will move southeast this morning across the region. While northern parts of the state picked up measurable rainfall this morning, most of this will scoot east of immediate central Indiana. This system will also serve to reinforce the cool pattern in place into early parts of next week. In fact, overnight lows tonight will fall into the 40s as far south as central Indiana. Anyone else craving fall?! The pattern beyond will feature a warming trend along with continued dry weather. Heat and humidity will build in earnest late in the period along with an opportunity for scattered showers and thunderstorms next weekend ahead of an approaching cold front. Between now and then, enjoy the quiet conditions.
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
II. Strong cold front delivers unseasonably cool close to the week
A warm open to the forecast period will transition much cooler to close the week. All-in-all, things will “balance out” close to average, locally.
Overall, it’s a dry pattern from the Plains into the East. The one exception? Where Cristobal’s remnants track and Northwest.
The heavy, tropical moisture associated with Cristobal is still expected to remain to our west. Wednesday will likely be our wettest day of the period which should feature 0.25″ to 0.75″ amounts over the upcoming 7-days.
Forecast Period: 06.06.20 through 06.13.20
Though it’ll still be a warm weekend, less humid air will be welcomed with open arms. Dry conditions will prevail through the weekend and as we open up the new work week, including plentiful sunshine. All eyes through the weekend will be on the Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Storm Cristobal. Cristobal will slowly strengthen over the next 24-36 hours before making landfall as a strong tropical storm along the southeast LA coastline. While we still don’t think we’ll be directly impacted by Cristobal’s remnants (those will track through the MS Valley and into the Upper Midwest), the fetch off the Gulf Coast directly ahead of a midweek cold front will lead to better chances of rain late Tuesday into Wednesday. That aforementioned cold front will be the first of two fronts to sweep the region before week’s end. The second front that blows through Friday will usher in a fall-like airmass next weekend.
Most of our Wednesday will be rain and storm free with a very warm and tropical feel. Don’t let this lull you in to letting your guard down as storms are expected to still erupt to our north late afternoon before rumbling south into central Indiana this evening.
The biggest concern with this storm complex will be centered on the threat of damaging straight line winds as embedded lines of storms may “bow out” on their journey south this evening. Additionally, large hail will also be possible with a few of the storms. As such, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to include the heart of the state (and the Ohio Valley for that matter) in a Slight Risk of severe weather today.
A good chunk of the region can expect 0.50″ to 1″ of rain this evening with locally heavier totals.
As we look ahead to the weekend, a front will sweep through the state and usher in a much less humid air mass Saturday night into early parts of next week. Sunday and Monday mornings should feature lows back into the upper 50s for most of central Indiana. Additionally, we’ll continue to keep close eyes on Tropical Storm Cristobal in the Gulf. There’s still the potential Cristobal’s remnant moisture will get entrained with an approaching cold front the middle to latter part of next week, leading to the threat of locally heavy rain across the MS Valley and parts of the Mid West and Ohio Valley. We’ll be able to become more specific as time draws closer.
