Category: Severe Weather

Warmer And Stormy Look…

We’re shifting gears into more of a spring like weather pattern over the course of the next 4-6 weeks. Things appear to get rather active and warmer than average, as…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/03/30/warmer-and-stormy-look/

A “Don’t Blink” Kinda Weather Pattern…

Screen Shot 2015-03-23 at 9.47.25 PMLoaded Up…That’s exactly what the weather pattern is over the forecast period above.  Before we get into that, how about that snow and sleet Monday?!  Snow came down fast and furious Monday afternoon just north of the city and accumulated to the tune of a few inches across a strip of north-central Indiana.  Travel was impacted, as well.  Ah, spring in Indiana… 🙂

We’ll transition from the wintry times of Monday to thundery downpours later Tuesday and continuing through the mid week period.  A couple rounds of rain and thunderstorms can be expected Tuesday.  The first of which will arrive late Tuesday morning into the afternoon.  This will then be followed by a potentially noisy round of thunderstorms late Tuesday night into the wee morning hours Wednesday.  Most of the day Wednesday will feature dry conditions, along with a gusty SW breeze and much warmer conditions.  The atmosphere will prime itself for another round of heavy rain and strong to isolated severe thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday.  A cold front will finally sweep through the region Thursday morning and put an end to the rain and thunder as well as usher in a much colder regime to wrap up the work week.

As mentioned above, cold will be the word as we put a wrap on the week and head into the weekend.  In fact, enough moisture and upper level energy may be present to create snow showers Friday.  Talk about a harsh reality to Wednesday’s mid 60s.  Don’t you love the weather roller coaster this time of year?!  Cold remains firmly in place Saturday though with increasing sunshine.

As we look ahead to early next week, a warm front may lift north through the region Sunday afternoon and this could spark a light shower.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.50″ – 2.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Trace – Dusting

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/03/23/a-dont-blink-kinda-weather-pattern/

Incredible Pattern…

Screen Shot 2015-02-15 at 7.54.13 AMHope You Like Winter…Many central Indiana neighborhoods are awaking to temperatures this morning between zero and 4 degrees above.  It’s a frigid start to the day and sunshine won’t do anything to help us out as highs only manage to climb into the middle teens.

Clouds will increase this evening and tonight and snow will overspread the southern half of the state late tonight and Monday morning.  This is from the storm system we said that it was too early to write off last week and that a northern shift was certainly possible as we got closer.  Sure enough, the northward jog took place yesterday and puts places from Indianapolis and points south in play for accumulating snow Monday.  We’ll continue to look over the data today and tonight and have more specific numbers later tonight.

Yet ANOTHER surge of arctic air will slam in here by the middle of the week and snow showers/ gusty winds will precede the bitter blast.  In fact, this 3rd arctic surge looks to be the coldest yet.  Amazing stuff!

As we rumble towards next weekend, there’s yet another winter storm we’ll have to keep a watch on…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 2″ – 5″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/15/incredible-pattern/

Crippling Snow Storm For Some; Just Wet For Others.

An incredibly difficult and challenging forecast is in store for central Indiana over the course of the next 24-36 hours.  I want to get out front with this right from the get go: bust potential is high with this type set-up, as a jog 10-20 miles north or south of the surface low will mean the difference between half a foot of snow and plain cold rain.  As it stands now, and after careful consideration of every piece of data available, here’s our updated snowfall map:

SnowfallMap2115V2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I still am not sure any one piece of data is handling the interaction between the arctic high to the north and the developing low to our southwest “perfectly.”  As such, additional fine tuning will have to take place tonight.  That arctic high is powerful at nearly 1045mb.  From a meteorological standpoint, it’ll be a fascinating battle watching the fight play out.

As you can see, we’re going to be looking at a very tight thermal gradient and it, unfortunately, appears to set itself up directly over the I-70 corridor.  Precipitation type and amounts are the biggest challenge within the I-70 corridor.  Further north, confidence increases rather significantly for a crippling snow storm.  For central Indiana, this will be a very wet and heavy snow event before ending as a drier, powdery snow on the back end.  As winds increase Sunday afternoon/ evening, the heavy “paste” like snow won’t blow around as easily as it would if it was drier.  Further north the snow consistency will be drier and blowing and drifting will be severe (in the 8″-12″+ zone).

In the shorter-term, rain and a wintry mix will arrive into the region as early as early as 6-7 o’clock.

Stay tuned.  Another post will hit here late tonight (midnight-ish).  In the meantime, we’ll keep our thoughts coming at @indywx through the afternoon.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/31/crippling-snow-storm-for-some-just-wet-for-others/

Late Night Update: Snow Storm Brewing…

Early forecast model data into the office tonight suggests we remain on track for a disruptive widespread snow storm this weekend. We note the timing is speeding up just a…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/29/late-night-update-snow-storm-brewing/

Monday Evening Snowstorm Video Update:

Our going snowfall forecast stands, brought to you by the fine folks at the Indiana Sports Report (indysportsreport.com):

15141614SnowfallForecast2

IndyWx.com was featured on WIBC today with Ray Steele.  You can listen here:

http://www.wibc.com/news/local-news/here-comes-snow-followed-bitter-cold

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/05/monday-evening-snowstorm-video-update/

Winter Storm Arrives Tonight…

First, here’s a look at our updated snowfall forecast….we’ve tried “honing in” on where we think banding may set up and create heaviest totals.  As stated last night, snowfall rates…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/05/winter-storm-arrives-tonight/

Monday Night-Tuesday Snow Event: First Call Map

15141614SnowfallForecast

I apologize for the lack of posts today.  My wife and I took time to get away for the weekend before the busy winter weather invades.  As a side note- it takes a special woman to put up with someone like me who has to check each and every model run through the day (and night).  I have an internal clock that causes me to wake up for the European run between 1a – 2a every night this time of year (pathetic, I know).  At any event, here are some of the quick-hitting bullet point highlights of what’s ahead into mid week:

  • Plowable Snow: Snow arrives into central IN by mid to late evening Monday and falls fast and furious for a few hours during the overnight.  Thinking here is that the majority of accumulating snow will fall after the evening rush Monday and before the morning rush Tuesday.  That said, it’ll be tough for snow removal companies and plows to keep up during the heart of the storm as snowfall rates will likely top 1″/hr during the overnight Monday.  Tuesday’s rush to and from work won’t be fun.  The snowfall map above is our best educated idea at this point, but we also think a localized band of 7″ – 8″ totals can’t be ruled out and we’ll use tomorrow to fine tune that band (early thinking is just north of the city).
  • Strong Winds: We’re still expecting wind and cold to become a huge story and concern Tuesday afternoon into mid week.  Northwest winds will become strong and gusty Tuesday and result in considerable blowing and drifting of snow (especially by afternoon).  Travel will likely remain difficult because of the combination of blowing, drifting, and the bitterly cold air.  Wind speeds will top 20-30 MPH Tuesday afternoon and night as the arctic front blows through.
  • Dangerous Cold: Temperatures will plummet Tuesday afternoon as the arctic air hits like a “wall.”  This will set the stage for dangerously cold air Tuesday night through Thursday, including below zero temperatures (5-10 below zero) and wind chill values that approach 30 degrees below zero.  Temperatures Wednesday will struggle to make it much above zero for the high (not a typo).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/04/monday-night-tuesday-snow-event-first-call-map/

Snow Showers Arrive Sunday; More Snow And Dangerous Cold Ahead…

Lots to discuss through the upcoming 7 days so please be sure to click the video and hear our latest thinking.  Have a great Saturday!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/03/snow-showers-arrive-sunday-more-snow-and-dangerous-cold-ahead/

Stretch Of Severe Winter Weather Next Week.

Just wanted to touch on a couple of bullet points for the upcoming week before a more extensive forecast update a bit later this afternoon.  A period of severe winter…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/03/stretch-of-severe-winter-weather-next-week/

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