Jun 19
1.) A wet day is ahead for central & southern IN as the combination of a stalled front and Bill’s remnant moisture work in. Rain has already been heavy just…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/19/friday-morning-rambles-2/
Jun 18
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/18/thursday-evening-video-update-3/
Jun 18
Highlights:
The day is dawning with overcast skies and humid conditions. Dew points in the lower 70s coupled with lower 70 degree air temperatures have things feeling very tropical. Showers and thunderstorms will fire later this afternoon and a few of these could become strong to severe. With the moisture-laden air mass in place, torrential rainfall will remain likely with storms.
As we shift into Friday and Saturday all eyes will be on the remnant moisture of what once was Tropical Storm Bill. Latest model data focuses in on southern IN for the greatest threat of widespread heavy rain and potential flash flooding, including rainfall amounts of 3″ to 4″ in spots. We’ll continue to keep a close eye on the precise track of Bill’s remnants, but, as of now, folks downstate are at highest risk of flooding problems.
As we move into next week the active and stormy times continue. There are questions in regards to an expanding heat dome. Latest data has backed down dramatically on the potential heat next week. With the wet ground in place it’s hard to argue with that idea.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 1.5″ – 2″ (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/18/afternoon-storms-watching-bills-remnants/
Jun 15
Highlights:
We’re waking up to similar weather conditions that we dealt with to close the weekend- scattered heavy downpours and very humid. It certainly won’t rain the entire day, but scattered storms will bubble up again as we progress into the afternoon and evening. With the humid air mass locked in, any shower or storm that develops will produce torrential downpours.
A frontal boundary will slip into the region tomorrow and provide enough lift to present a strong to severe thunderstorm threat Tuesday. We’ll continue to keep a close eye on things. This front will stall out near the area and serve as a focal point for thunderstorm development through the upcoming few days.
The tropics continue to be of interest later this week, but we stress that forecast models are really struggling with handling the details. Solutions range from a flood threat presented by the European and Canadian; however the GFS would suggest the tropical remnants don’t get involved in our pattern. We’re leaning more towards the Euro/ Canadian blend as of now as we feel the SE ridge will help steer the tropical remnants northeast into the Ohio Valley late week (timing may have to be find tuned as we draw closer). Again, stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2″ – 3″ (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/15/humid-stormy-times-continue-watching-the-tropics/
Jun 14
Today is the beginning of several active days around these parts. Over the course of the next few days severe weather and heavy rainfall will keep us on our toes…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/14/busy-times-in-the-forecast-office/
Jun 13
Highlights:
We’re opening the weekend with dry skies across central IN, along with a very tropical feel. The combination of a nearby weak boundary and the humid air mass will help fuel isolated to widely scattered storms this afternoon. That said, overall coverage of storms will be reduced from what we saw Friday. Most of the day will feature dry conditions.
We’ll begin to increase storm chances as we rumble into the second half of the weekend and on into the new work week. Some of these may be strong to severe Sunday-Monday, including strong damaging winds and large hail.
Attention will then shift to mid week and the potential of an excessive rainfall event. Modeling is leaning towards tracking a tropical disturbance north out of the western GOM (Gulf of Mexico) before shifting northeast around the periphery of a southeastern ridge. Very heavy rainfall would result if this idea pans out. Stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 2″-4″ (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/13/today-is-the-pick-of-the-week-wet-and-stormy-pattern-looms/
Jun 12
The Storm Prediction Center highlights the region for a risk of severe weather both today and Sunday. Day 1 Outlook Day 3 Outlook As for timing, we expect…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/12/strong-to-severe-storm-potential-active-pattern/
Jun 09
From time to time we like to post some of our AG weather reports here as opposed to our weekly updates via e-mail. (BTW, if you’re interested in more information around this feature, please e-mail bill@indywx.com).
Rains the past couple of days have been beneficial for many areas that were dry in May. (Here’s a hint, there’s more where that came from).
Unfortunately, some of that heavy rain came with hail damage- particularly across northern IN Monday afternoon.
Abnormally dry conditions have continued to shrink over the region over the past couple weeks. May and early June is a crucial time in setting the tone for the summer/ early fall months ahead. This, of course, is fantastic news.
As we progress ahead into the second half of the week, additional severe threats will present themselves. Similar to Monday, hail and damaging winds are of greatest concerns in our particular Ag-weather viewing area (#IAwx, #INwx, #ILwx, #OHwx).
Day 2- Wednesday
Day 3- Thursday
As we move forward, a very warm to hot and humid pattern will settle in o/ the course of the next 7-14 days (and beyond). In looking at the latest European Weeklies (can’t post here due to licensing issues) the warmer than normal pattern and wetter than normal regime is likely to continue through the rest of the month. It’s not so much the high temperatures in terms of absolutes, but the combination of wet ground (humid and sultry) and warmer overnight lows that will really help power the warmer than normal period in the coming couple weeks.
In the shorter term, heat will really expand across the region mid week, including many of the first 90 degree readings of the season for most folks. The European shows the ridge flexing it’s muscle yet again into early next week.
A very humid time of things will continue, due to the recent wet times and more rain ahead. Aside from the storm threat(s) mid week, Friday into Saturday will also prove to offer a smattering of thunderstorms as a cold front moves in and stalls south before returning north Sunday.
Upcoming 10-day rainfall numbers are respectable, including 2″-3″ totals for many, with locally heavier amounts a good bet where storms train.
Note the wet pattern shown deeper into June off the CFSv2:
The JAMSTEC shows the wet pattern into the heart of the summer (June, July, August) and would argue against any idea of major long-lasting heat for the heart of the summer.
BTW- for you winter lovers out there, here’s a little something to entertain you. The JAMSTEC is onboard for another “fun” winter ahead. Factor in those warm NPAC anomalies and a weakening El Nino into the winter and the stage very well may be set for wintry fun and games… Long way to go here, however… 🙂
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/09/ag-weather-report-6915/
Jun 09
Highlights:
The big weather story over the second half of the week will be the heat and humidity. Many will reach, or exceed, the 90 degree mark Wednesday and/ or Thursday. We’ll keep a close eye on the northern portions of the state for storms to initialize Wednesday afternoon/ evening. Those at greatest risk for strong to severe storm potential will be from areas along and north of the I-70 corridor Wednesday evening. Damaging winds and hail are of biggest concern.
A cold front will slide into the area Friday and provide better coverage of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night. Latest model runs then deliver a briefly drier surge of air Saturday and we’ll lean in that direction with our Saturday forecast for now. Don’t get used to the drier air as heat and humidity will be plentiful early next week, along with renewed shower and storm chances.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 1″ – 1.5″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/09/hello-summer/
Jun 08
Highlights:
A cold front remains off to our northwest as we type this and big storms are firing across northern portions of the state. We’ll keep a close eye on those as they move southeast tonight and begin to pick up more forward momentum in the coming hours. They’ve had a history of producing damaging hail. Remain weather-aware this evening.
Thankfully we’ll begin to inject a drier air mass (briefly) into the region Tuesday. A nice day is coming with lower humidity. Most of the second half of the work week will also remain dry, but as humidity increases we have to mention the threat of an isolated to widely scattered storm. The big story will be the heat as highs push into the 90 degree territory. Prepare to sweat!
Better chances of showers and thunderstorms will push back into the region over the upcoming weekend. We’re not forecast a complete washout either Saturday or Sunday, but with a very humid air mass in place, any shower or storm that develops will have the capability of producing torrential downpours.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 1.5″ – 2.5″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/08/storms-tonight-heat-builds-this-week/