Category: Severe Weather

Dec 23

Severe Weather & Record Warmth…

A very active weather day is in store for central IN.  As we type this (6:30 am), temperatures are hovering around 60 degrees.  Simply put, that’s hard to believe.  We’re on our way to a record warm day, with highs in the middle 60s across central IN.

The main story, however, will be the severe weather our area may have to deal with in (2) waves this afternoon/ evening.

The Set-up:  A short wave trough will eject out of the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region.  A surface low and associated cold front will accompany this trough.  Unseasonably warm and moist air will spread north this afternoon and evening, including surface dew points in the lower 60s.  PWATs (precipitable water values) will exceed 1.25″.

DewPoint

PWATThe Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Slight Risk of severe for all of the state, including an Enhanced Risk across southern IN.

Screen Shot 2015-12-23 at 7.15.53 AMTiming:  We think potentially (2) waves of storms will rumble through the state today.  The first likely comes during the early afternoon with a potential second line of storms blowing through the area in direct association with the cold front later this evening/ tonight.  Admittedly, it’s tough to pin point the second potential wave of activity until we see what/ how the first round of storms impact the local air mass.

*As always, the forecast radar products we show should not be taken verbatim.  These are used for guidance in building our forecast and provide a look at what the radar may look like during a given time frame.

2p forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Impacts:  We remain most concerned for the potential of damaging thunderstorm winds, but stress that we can’t rule out a quick spin-up tornado with this type set-up.

Most importantly, have a means of getting the latest weather information today, especially if you’re traveling.  Set those weather radios to alert you of any watches or warnings that may come later today.

Looking ahead:  We still forecast a significant rain event that will likely lead to flooding early next week.  Model data remains very consistent on the potential of 4″-6″ of rain over the upcoming 7-day period.  Afterwards, a blast of arctic air looks to invade to welcome in 2016.  More on both of these events after we deal with today’s severe.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/23/severe-weather-record-warmth/

Dec 22

Tuesday Evening Video Brief: Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/22/tuesday-evening-video-brief-severe-weather-possible-tomorrow/

Dec 22

Active Wednesday Only The Beginning….

Rumbles of thunder woke several folks up (yours truly included) during the overnight. This was just a teaser for what lies ahead Wednesday as we continue to think a very…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/22/active-wednesday-only-the-beginning/

Nov 13

Cold Night Coming; Next Big Storm Slated For Next Week…

Screen Shot 2015-11-13 at 4.04.40 PMHighlights:

  • Moderating temperatures after a hard freeze
  • Next big storm arrives early next week
  • Wintry fun and games around Thanksgiving

Today has featured wall-to-wall sunshine and while it’s looked great from the inside looking out, that wind is still whipping!  Gusts have reached 40 MPH in spots across central and northern parts of the state.

Winds will finally die down tonight and with clear skies in place a hard freeze awaits for central IN.  The latest high resolution data, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, suggests mid to upper 20s tonight and we agree.

hires_t2m_indy_19

Our next big autumn storm awaits for the early and middle portions of next week.  Questions remain concerning severe weather across our area, but as of now it appears the dynamics needed for severe weather, locally, will remain too far to our west.  We’ll continue to monitor.  Latest forecast models (Euro top and GFS bottom) have some differences with the track of our next storm- both centered on Tuesday night.

ECTueNt

GFSTueNtThe differences with timing and track are significant and we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.

We remain very confident on heavy rainfall potential as a prolonged southerly fetch off the GOM (Gulf of Mexico) will transport copious moisture northbound.  Widespread 2″-3″ type rainfall totals are a good bet with this set up.

Longer term, we remain confident on a pattern change towards colder than normal conditions to wrap up November.  Additionally, a storm system will likely cross the country Thanksgiving week and could offer up the season’s first widespread wintry “fun.”

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/13/cold-night-coming-next-big-storm-slated-for-next-week/

Nov 12

Looking Ahead Towards Our Next Storm…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/12/looking-ahead-towards-our-next-storm/

Nov 11

Big Time Wind Event; Active Pattern…

Screen Shot 2015-11-11 at 7.17.55 AMHighlights:

  • Nighttime storms
  • Prolonged wind event
  • Eyeing our next storm

The morning has dawned with mid and high level clouds painting the back drop as the sun rises.  We’ve shared several photos on our Twitter page (@IndyWx) of the beautiful sun rise.  Thank you and keep ’em coming!

Low pressure is moving off the Rockies this morning (where another hefty snow dump took place overnight) and into the Plains.  The low will then track into the Great Lakes Thursday.  As the low moves northeast, it’ll swing a cold front through our neck of the woods Thursday morning.  We still bracket tonight into the wee morning hours Thursday for thunderstorm potential.  See the simulated radar valid at 10p this evening, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

10pWed

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is lacking with this storm and moisture return isn’t impressive.  This is good news as it will reduce the amount of severe weather we’ll see.  However, it should be noted that it won’t take much to bring down a severe wind report or two and that is our primary concern tonight with any storm.

CAPE- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

CAPE- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Surface Dew Points- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Surface Dew Points- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Precipitable Water- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Precipitable Water- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Because of the lack of moisture return and the overall speed of the system, rainfall tonight won’t be impressive for most (0.25″-0.50″ on average) with the exception of localized stronger storms.

What will be impressive is the wind, even without storms.  A Wind Advisory has been issued for late tonight and Thursday, via the National Weather Service out of Indianapolis, and rightfully so.  We wouldn’t be surprised if a portion of this is upgraded to a High Wind Warning later today or tonight as gusts of 50 MPH+ will be a concern through the day Thursday as our low occludes over the Lakes.

A period of drier air will return to wrap up the week and head into early next week, but we eye another big storm system for the middle of next week.  Forecast models differ on precise details, as you’d expect at this juncture.

WedStormTrack

ThrStormTrack

The GFS (above) isn’t shying away from another significant impact event.  The European isn’t as bullish early on.  All mid range models do produce moderate to heavy rains over the region.  Stay tuned as we continue to monitor.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/11/big-time-wind-event-active-pattern/

Nov 10

Still Eyeing Mid Week Storms; Windy And Colder To Close The Week…

Screen Shot 2015-11-10 at 7.07.33 AMHighlights:

  • Wednesday night storms
  • Very windy to close the week
  • Colder Friday

The overall set-up over the next couple days will feature a strong autumn storm coming off the Rockies (today), crossing the Plains (Wednesday), and heading northeast into the Great Lakes to offer up some “fresh water fury!” (Thursday).

Here’s the track of our storm, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

TueEvening

WedEvening

ThrEveningWe still need to monitor things closely for the potential of severe weather Wednesday evening, but latest data would suggest a lower chance of severe, overall.  Certainly not worth letting your guard down, but the lack of moisture return and timing are both on our sides in this particular event.  Localized damaging straight line winds are still of greatest concern of any of the severe elements across central IN and this would be for Wednesday night.

Here’s a look at the latest simulated radar for 10p Wednesday.  As we always say, don’t pay particularly close attention to the precise time.  This should be used as guidance as what the radar may look like Wednesday evening.

10pradarWedAs mentioned above, the speed, timing, and lack of moisture return strongly argue against significant rainfall with this storm.  We’ll forecast around 0.25″ with locally heavier totals in storms.  Not a big deal from a precipitation perspective.

What is a big deal is the wind on the backside of the low as northwest gusts really crank in the Thursday-Friday time frame (30-40 MPH).  Needless to say, Thursday isn’t a day to wear a hat. 🙂

Longer term, data continues to argue against any sort of sustained chill through the rest of November.  We note the SOI is actually positive right now.  This is certainly unusual with the ongoing El Nino and well above the base state (a warm sign).

Screen Shot 2015-11-10 at 6.55.51 AM

 

 

 

The MJO is also projected to rumble through the warm Phases of 2 and 3 over the next few weeks.  Note these are overall warmer than normal phases in November.

Screen Shot 2015-11-10 at 6.59.42 AM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2015-11-10 at 6.57.56 AM

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/10/still-eyeing-mid-week-storms-windy-and-colder-to-close-the-week/

Nov 09

Monday Morning Video Update…

We continue to eye Wednesday night for severe weather potential.  Due to timing, as of now the greatest concern is thunderstorms that contain damaging straight line winds.  If traveling west…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/09/monday-morning-video-update/

Nov 08

Changes On The Horizon…

Screen Shot 2015-11-08 at 9.39.59 AMHighlights:

  • Beautiful Sunday
  • Rain arrives Monday afternoon/ evening
  • Stormy Wednesday night-Thursday morning
  • Much colder late next week

High pressure will supply a beauty of a second half of the weekend.  After the frosty start to the day, we’ll “warm” into the lower 50s this afternoon.  It’ll be a perfect crisp November day.

Changes arrive Monday as clouds increase and give way to rain as early as the afternoon as moisture rides north out of the Deep South.  A wave of low pressure will ride up the western slopes of the western Appalachians and enhance early week rain to our east.

The next big ticket item is the storm that will arrive Wednesday night.  We continue to keep a very close eye on this as a severe weather outbreak appears likely.  Specifics still have to be ironed out and we go through the next couple days, but keep abreast of the latest weather information during the Wednesday night-Thursday morning time period.

MUCH colder air will pour into the region behind the big low as it wraps up over the Great Lakes.  A hard freeze appears likely come Saturday morning.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast:  0.50″ – 1″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/08/changes-on-the-horizon/

Nov 07

Dry, Chilly November Weekend; Mid Week Storms…

Screen Shot 2015-11-07 at 10.56.54 AMHighlights:

  • Sunny and cool
  • Midweek Storms
  • Prolonged period of windy weather late week

High pressure is building into the Ohio Valley this weekend and helping supply sunshine and that cool, crisp air we enjoy this time of year.  Freeze and frost conditions are ahead tonight and again Monday morning as high pressure moves overhead and results in clear skies and calm winds.

As the high moves to our east, a return SW flow will help moderate temperatures for mid week. As our next storm system comes out of the Plains it’ll intensify as it tracks into the Great Lakes.  Thunderstorms will accompany the cold front as it swings through the state Wednesday night.  We’ll monitor for strong to severe storm potential.  A lot will hinge upon the precise track of the surface low and we’ll keep a close eye on things over the next couple days.  We’ll turn cooler again late next week with strong winds shifting from the SW to NW.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/07/dry-chilly-november-weekend-mid-week-storms/

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