Category: Severe Weather

Mar 14

Rainy Monday; Severe Weather Possible Tuesday Night…

Screen Shot 2016-03-14 at 9.14.04 AMHighlights:

  • Rainy open to the week
  • Severe storms possible Tuesday night
  • Active pattern continues this week

Rainy Monday; Severe Storms Possible Tuesday…A disturbance is helping push showers and thunderstorms north into central IN to open the work week.  Most of the rain and embedded thunderstorms will fall during the morning into the afternoon hours before drier air works in here tonight.  That will set us up for a mostly dry, breezy, and warm Tuesday, but all attention will be on Tuesday night.  We still think thunderstorms that ignite in IL Tuesday afternoon will race eastward and impact Indiana Tuesday night.  More specifically, we’re bracketing the hours of 8p-2a for severe prospects locally.  All modes of severe weather are in play, particularly damaging winds and hail.  Stay tuned.

As we progress into the second half of the week, things remain rather busy.  A couple weak disturbances could offer up Thursday showers (especially south).  The evolution of things this weekend is still very much up in the air, but for now we’ll go with increasing clouds Saturday giving way to showers.  As colder air gets involved with this storm system, precipitation may mix or end as wet snow Sunday.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace
  • Rainfall: 1.25″ – 1.75″ (locally heavier totals)
Interested in more in-depth long range forecast discussions, video updates, ag. forecasts, and seasonal outlooks? E-mail bill@indywx.com for more information.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/14/rainy-monday-severe-weather-possible-tuesday-night/

Mar 13

Protected: Client Video Update: Severe Weather And Long Range Talk…

This content is password protected. To view it please enter your password below: Password:

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/13/client-video-update-severe-weather-and-long-range-talk/

Mar 13

Monitoring Severe Potential Tuesday Night…

We have scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms to deal with today and Monday (along with plenty of dry time, too), but our attention is beginning to shift to the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday- particularly Tuesday night.

The SPC has outlined most of the state for a *Slight Risk* of severe thunderstorms Tuesday.

The SPC has outlined most of the state for a *Slight Risk* of severe thunderstorms Tuesday.

We note surface dew points surge into the upper 50s and lower 60s Tuesday.

SfcDPThis should be sufficient enough to help fuel a developing thunderstorm cluster in IL Tuesday afternoon/ evening that will likely race eastward with time Tuesday night.  We note a strong area of low pressure over the upper Mid West that will “bull-whip” a cold front through the region Tuesday night.  This will tap into the available moisture and relative warmth (lower to middle 70s a good bet for highs Tuesday) to continue the storm threat through IN and into western OH during the late evening/ overnight.

3All modes of severe weather appear to be in play right now, but we’re particularly concerned about the potential of damaging straight line winds within any thunderstorm complex that develops Tuesday afternoon/ evening.  We’ll also have to monitor the potential of discrete cells that develop away from the primary storm complex.

We turn cooler and windy Wednesday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/13/monitoring-severe-potential-tuesday-night/

Feb 02

Tuesday Evening: Stormy For Some Tonight; Wintry Next Week…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/02/tuesday-evening-stormy-for-some-tonight-wintry-next-week/

Feb 02

Stormy Evening…

Screen Shot 2016-02-02 at 7.24.07 AMHighlights:

  • Strong to severe storms this evening
  • Rain and snow showers Wednesday
  • Dry and chilly to wrap up the work week
  • Nice weekend ahead
  • MUCH colder next week

Stormy Evening…Tuesday is dawning nice and quiet with dry and chilly conditions in place.  A bit of fog has been reported just west and north of the city.  The quiet times will give way to a bumpy ride by this evening as a warm front passes, allowing a strong SW breeze to boost temperatures close to 60 (after dark high).

Scattered showers will develop this afternoon, but it’s the evening hours that we bracket (between 4-10p west to east) for the potential of strong to severe storms.  Some of these storms will be capable of damaging winds, and even a quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out.  Have a way to get the latest weather information this evening.

We turn cooler Wednesday with lingering moisture falling in the form of mixed rain and snow showers.  This won’t be a big deal.

Dry times will be with us to end the week and rumble into the Super Bowl weekend, with moderating temperatures.  The moderating trend won’t last long as models continue to suggest an arctic blast looms next week.  To go along with that cold, snow chances will also come.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/02/stormy-evening/

Feb 01

Monday Evening Video Update…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/01/monday-evening-video-update-6/

Feb 01

Strong To Severe Storms Tuesday PM…

Screen Shot 2016-02-01 at 7.03.14 AMHighlights:

  • Morning fog in spots
  • Strong Tuesday storms
  • Mid week snow showers
  • Quiet end to the week

Strong To Severe Storms Tuesday Afternoon-Evening…Today is a day in between storm systems. We’ll deal with morning fog in spots (some freezing fog is being reported north and northwest of Indy this morning) and mostly cloudy skies.  It’ll be colder when compared to the weekend, but still warmer than average.

All eyes for this forecast package remain locked on Tuesday.  It’s still shaping up to be an active day, with strong to severe thunderstorms likely.  We bracket 3p-11p for the most likely time frame of thunderstorms across central IN.  Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but caution a few embedded cells will be capable of producing a tornado.

Things turn much colder Wednesday and with lingering moisture, a few snow showers will be a good bet.

We turn much quieter to wrap up the week and head into Super Bowl Sunday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/01/strong-to-severe-storms-tuesday-pm/

Jan 31

10 Day Ag-Weather Outlook…

10 Day AG-Weather Outlook

Issued: 01.31.16

Forecast period: 02.01.16 – 02.10.16

Focal Items:

  • Plains blizzard Days 1-3
  • Severe threat from the Mid South to the Ohio Valley Tuesday
  • Impactful winter event developing late in the period

Summary:  The forecast period will begin with strong ridging across the eastern half of the CONUS, while a significant trough digs across the west. That trough will lift northeast through the middle of the upcoming work week before re-amplifying over the upcoming weekend into early week 2 across the Plains and Ohio Valley region.

Sensible Impacts:  A significant storm system will move off the Rockies and into the Plains Monday.  The surface low  will track northeast from SE CO Monday night into SW MI Tuesday night.  To the north and northwest of the surface low, heavy snow and blizzard conditions will impact areas from CO, KS, NE, IA, MN, and WI.  South and southeast of the surface low track, strong to severe thunderstorms will rumble through the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday night.  All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes.

We’ll need to keep a close eye on the potential of a clipper system diving SE across the N. Plains and upper Ohio Valley over the upcoming weekend, but the bigger event appears to be a developing winter storm threat centered on the end of the period (2/8-2/10 time period).  There are, obviously, a lot of details to sort through, but an impactful winter event is very possible across the Ohio Valley towards the end of the forecast period.

Temperature Anomalies:  The period will open much warmer than normal, but transition cold, and eventually colder than normal by the end of the period across the forecast region.

Screen Shot 2016-01-31 at 5.25.30 PM

Anomalous warmth will engulf the Ohio Valley to open the forecast period. Source: Penn State E-Wall

The pattern shifts colder than normal towards the end of the period across the Plains into the southeast. Source: Penn State E-Wall

The pattern shifts colder than normal towards the end of the period across the Plains into the southeast. Source: Penn State E-Wall

Precipitation:  A stripe of heavy snows (10″-15″) will fall from CO, NE, IA, southern MN, and WI with the initial early week storm.  .5″-1.5″ of rain will fall across the Southeast, TN, and OH Valley regions (locally heavier totals where strong storm train).  Overall, quieter times return mid and late week for the forecast region before the next potential strong storm develops late in the period.

For private weather consulting and more detailed ag-weather updates, please e-mail bill@indywx.com.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/31/10-day-ag-weather-outlook/

Jan 27

Quick Wednesday Evening Video Update…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/27/quick-wednesday-evening-video-update-3/

Dec 24

Weather Highlights As We Go Into Christmas…

First and foremost, Merry Christmas Eve to all! 🎅🏻 1.) After a busy Wednesday with severe weather and heavy rain across the region, high pressure will build in and provide…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/24/weather-highlights-as-we-go-into-christmas/

IndyWx.com