Category: Severe Weather

Feb 02

Stormy Evening…

Screen Shot 2016-02-02 at 7.24.07 AMHighlights:

  • Strong to severe storms this evening
  • Rain and snow showers Wednesday
  • Dry and chilly to wrap up the work week
  • Nice weekend ahead
  • MUCH colder next week

Stormy Evening…Tuesday is dawning nice and quiet with dry and chilly conditions in place.  A bit of fog has been reported just west and north of the city.  The quiet times will give way to a bumpy ride by this evening as a warm front passes, allowing a strong SW breeze to boost temperatures close to 60 (after dark high).

Scattered showers will develop this afternoon, but it’s the evening hours that we bracket (between 4-10p west to east) for the potential of strong to severe storms.  Some of these storms will be capable of damaging winds, and even a quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out.  Have a way to get the latest weather information this evening.

We turn cooler Wednesday with lingering moisture falling in the form of mixed rain and snow showers.  This won’t be a big deal.

Dry times will be with us to end the week and rumble into the Super Bowl weekend, with moderating temperatures.  The moderating trend won’t last long as models continue to suggest an arctic blast looms next week.  To go along with that cold, snow chances will also come.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/02/stormy-evening/

Feb 01

Monday Evening Video Update…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/01/monday-evening-video-update-6/

Feb 01

Strong To Severe Storms Tuesday PM…

Screen Shot 2016-02-01 at 7.03.14 AMHighlights:

  • Morning fog in spots
  • Strong Tuesday storms
  • Mid week snow showers
  • Quiet end to the week

Strong To Severe Storms Tuesday Afternoon-Evening…Today is a day in between storm systems. We’ll deal with morning fog in spots (some freezing fog is being reported north and northwest of Indy this morning) and mostly cloudy skies.  It’ll be colder when compared to the weekend, but still warmer than average.

All eyes for this forecast package remain locked on Tuesday.  It’s still shaping up to be an active day, with strong to severe thunderstorms likely.  We bracket 3p-11p for the most likely time frame of thunderstorms across central IN.  Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but caution a few embedded cells will be capable of producing a tornado.

Things turn much colder Wednesday and with lingering moisture, a few snow showers will be a good bet.

We turn much quieter to wrap up the week and head into Super Bowl Sunday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/01/strong-to-severe-storms-tuesday-pm/

Jan 31

10 Day Ag-Weather Outlook…

10 Day AG-Weather Outlook

Issued: 01.31.16

Forecast period: 02.01.16 – 02.10.16

Focal Items:

  • Plains blizzard Days 1-3
  • Severe threat from the Mid South to the Ohio Valley Tuesday
  • Impactful winter event developing late in the period

Summary:  The forecast period will begin with strong ridging across the eastern half of the CONUS, while a significant trough digs across the west. That trough will lift northeast through the middle of the upcoming work week before re-amplifying over the upcoming weekend into early week 2 across the Plains and Ohio Valley region.

Sensible Impacts:  A significant storm system will move off the Rockies and into the Plains Monday.  The surface low  will track northeast from SE CO Monday night into SW MI Tuesday night.  To the north and northwest of the surface low, heavy snow and blizzard conditions will impact areas from CO, KS, NE, IA, MN, and WI.  South and southeast of the surface low track, strong to severe thunderstorms will rumble through the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday night.  All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes.

We’ll need to keep a close eye on the potential of a clipper system diving SE across the N. Plains and upper Ohio Valley over the upcoming weekend, but the bigger event appears to be a developing winter storm threat centered on the end of the period (2/8-2/10 time period).  There are, obviously, a lot of details to sort through, but an impactful winter event is very possible across the Ohio Valley towards the end of the forecast period.

Temperature Anomalies:  The period will open much warmer than normal, but transition cold, and eventually colder than normal by the end of the period across the forecast region.

Screen Shot 2016-01-31 at 5.25.30 PM

Anomalous warmth will engulf the Ohio Valley to open the forecast period. Source: Penn State E-Wall

The pattern shifts colder than normal towards the end of the period across the Plains into the southeast. Source: Penn State E-Wall

The pattern shifts colder than normal towards the end of the period across the Plains into the southeast. Source: Penn State E-Wall

Precipitation:  A stripe of heavy snows (10″-15″) will fall from CO, NE, IA, southern MN, and WI with the initial early week storm.  .5″-1.5″ of rain will fall across the Southeast, TN, and OH Valley regions (locally heavier totals where strong storm train).  Overall, quieter times return mid and late week for the forecast region before the next potential strong storm develops late in the period.

For private weather consulting and more detailed ag-weather updates, please e-mail bill@indywx.com.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/31/10-day-ag-weather-outlook/

Jan 27

Quick Wednesday Evening Video Update…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/27/quick-wednesday-evening-video-update-3/

Dec 24

Weather Highlights As We Go Into Christmas…

First and foremost, Merry Christmas Eve to all! 🎅🏻 1.) After a busy Wednesday with severe weather and heavy rain across the region, high pressure will build in and provide…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/24/weather-highlights-as-we-go-into-christmas/

Dec 23

Severe Weather & Record Warmth…

A very active weather day is in store for central IN.  As we type this (6:30 am), temperatures are hovering around 60 degrees.  Simply put, that’s hard to believe.  We’re on our way to a record warm day, with highs in the middle 60s across central IN.

The main story, however, will be the severe weather our area may have to deal with in (2) waves this afternoon/ evening.

The Set-up:  A short wave trough will eject out of the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region.  A surface low and associated cold front will accompany this trough.  Unseasonably warm and moist air will spread north this afternoon and evening, including surface dew points in the lower 60s.  PWATs (precipitable water values) will exceed 1.25″.

DewPoint

PWATThe Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Slight Risk of severe for all of the state, including an Enhanced Risk across southern IN.

Screen Shot 2015-12-23 at 7.15.53 AMTiming:  We think potentially (2) waves of storms will rumble through the state today.  The first likely comes during the early afternoon with a potential second line of storms blowing through the area in direct association with the cold front later this evening/ tonight.  Admittedly, it’s tough to pin point the second potential wave of activity until we see what/ how the first round of storms impact the local air mass.

*As always, the forecast radar products we show should not be taken verbatim.  These are used for guidance in building our forecast and provide a look at what the radar may look like during a given time frame.

2p forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Impacts:  We remain most concerned for the potential of damaging thunderstorm winds, but stress that we can’t rule out a quick spin-up tornado with this type set-up.

Most importantly, have a means of getting the latest weather information today, especially if you’re traveling.  Set those weather radios to alert you of any watches or warnings that may come later today.

Looking ahead:  We still forecast a significant rain event that will likely lead to flooding early next week.  Model data remains very consistent on the potential of 4″-6″ of rain over the upcoming 7-day period.  Afterwards, a blast of arctic air looks to invade to welcome in 2016.  More on both of these events after we deal with today’s severe.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/23/severe-weather-record-warmth/

Dec 22

Tuesday Evening Video Brief: Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/22/tuesday-evening-video-brief-severe-weather-possible-tomorrow/

Dec 22

Active Wednesday Only The Beginning….

Rumbles of thunder woke several folks up (yours truly included) during the overnight. This was just a teaser for what lies ahead Wednesday as we continue to think a very…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/22/active-wednesday-only-the-beginning/

Nov 13

Cold Night Coming; Next Big Storm Slated For Next Week…

Screen Shot 2015-11-13 at 4.04.40 PMHighlights:

  • Moderating temperatures after a hard freeze
  • Next big storm arrives early next week
  • Wintry fun and games around Thanksgiving

Today has featured wall-to-wall sunshine and while it’s looked great from the inside looking out, that wind is still whipping!  Gusts have reached 40 MPH in spots across central and northern parts of the state.

Winds will finally die down tonight and with clear skies in place a hard freeze awaits for central IN.  The latest high resolution data, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, suggests mid to upper 20s tonight and we agree.

hires_t2m_indy_19

Our next big autumn storm awaits for the early and middle portions of next week.  Questions remain concerning severe weather across our area, but as of now it appears the dynamics needed for severe weather, locally, will remain too far to our west.  We’ll continue to monitor.  Latest forecast models (Euro top and GFS bottom) have some differences with the track of our next storm- both centered on Tuesday night.

ECTueNt

GFSTueNtThe differences with timing and track are significant and we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.

We remain very confident on heavy rainfall potential as a prolonged southerly fetch off the GOM (Gulf of Mexico) will transport copious moisture northbound.  Widespread 2″-3″ type rainfall totals are a good bet with this set up.

Longer term, we remain confident on a pattern change towards colder than normal conditions to wrap up November.  Additionally, a storm system will likely cross the country Thanksgiving week and could offer up the season’s first widespread wintry “fun.”

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/13/cold-night-coming-next-big-storm-slated-for-next-week/

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