Highlights:
- Strong-to-severe storms Friday
- Pleasant Saturday
- Humidity and storms return
Active Friday For Some…Before we can discuss the pleasant and absolutely gorgeous weather conditions that will welcome in the weekend, we have to deal with a potentially “bumpy” few hours Friday afternoon into the early evening across portions of the state.
Central Indiana is under the gun for severe weather Friday.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlines central and southern portions of the state for the threat of severe weather Friday. Damaging straight line winds are the greatest concern with a line of storms that develop Friday afternoon and push southeast. Drier weather will quickly build in behind a cold front Friday evening and help usher in a very pleasant open to the weekend. We’ll certainly notice the lower dew points Saturday and cooler feel with plentiful sunshine. Enjoy it!
Unfortunately the pleasant and dry conditions won’t last very long, and shower chances return as quickly as Sunday afternoon. Humidity and a true tropical feel will also engulf the region next week. This, combined with upper air disturbances moving through the Mid West and Ohio Valley, will aid in daily “splash and dash” thunderstorm coverage. With a moisture-rich air mass in place, stronger storms will produce torrential downpours. Overall, the active and unsettled summer that central Indiana has grown accustomed to shows no signs of let-up in the week ahead…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 2.00″-3.00″ (locally higher totals)
II: A weak upper level disturbance will drift overhead Monday afternoon and help spark scattered showers and thunderstorms into the evening hours. Not everyone will get wet Monday evening, but a couple gusty storms are possible. Here’s a look at the radar valid at 6p Monday.
III. After a dry Tuesday and Wednesday, better shower and thunderstorm chances will return to our forecast for late week into next weekend. Additionally, temperatures and humidity levels will return to closer to seasonal norms.
IV. An active pattern will remain with us as we progress through the first half of June. A busy NW flow aloft will likely send multiple storm clusters southeast into the region and we’ll have to be mindful for the potential of some of these storm complexes containing strong-to-severe storms and excessive rainfall.
Similar to Tuesday, any storms that develop will be capable of locally heavy rain and flash flooding. While storms should move in a quicker fashion today, precipitable water values (PWATs) remain downright tropical and will exceed 2″ later this afternoon.
Overall storm coverage should become more widespread as we push into the afternoon and evening hours. Here’s what the radar may look like during the 4p, 6p, and 10p time frames:
From a severe perspective, the biggest concern is damaging straight line winds with stronger storms. Remain weather-aware later today, friends!
Despite having to dodge a couple rounds of gusty storms this weekend, we want to stress that the majority of the holiday weekend should feature rain-free hours, and certainly isn’t worth cancelling any outdoor plans. In fact, after a beautiful Carb Day, most of the daytime hours both Saturday and Sunday should be rain and storm free. Have a means of getting the latest weather information, but plan to enjoy long stretches of rain-free hours this weekend.
Highlights:
While we can’t completely rule out an afternoon shower or storm Sunday, the most widespread activity should occur during the morning hours- before race time. Stay tuned. We’ll turn cooler early next week…
The culprit is a stalled frontal boundary that lies across the center of the state. This front will “bobble” around from time to time over the next 24 hours before lifting back north as a warm front Saturday evening. Accordingly, expect a significant temperature spread from north to south today and periods of showers and thunderstorms scattered about central Indiana. With high precipitable water values, localized heavy rains are expected, but, as mentioned, this won’t be a “uniform” event and there will be “haves and have nots.” Some neighborhoods can expect to pick up a 2-3 inches of rain between now and Sunday afternoon. Greatest severe threats include large hail and damaging straight line winds with storms, but we’ll also have to monitor things for the potential of a couple rotating storms as well.
Highlights:
We think an eastward-advancing line of thunderstorms will blow into central Indiana later this evening (between 9p and midnight). Some of these may reach strong to severe levels with damaging straight line winds of greatest concern. Additionally, torrential downpours will occur within this line of storms.