May 01
For the first time this spring, you’ll really notice the muggy nature to the air by Wednesday afternoon, as dew points climb from the pleasant 50s (Wednesday morning) to near…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/01/video-summer-like-feel-wednesday-helps-fuel-storm-chances-longer-range-thoughts/
Apr 14
A significant spring storm system will continue to grab headlines through the short-term. In addition to a raging blizzard across the northern tier into the Great Lakes, severe weather will be an issue across the deep South today. Here on the home front, morning rain will give way to drier conditions for the afternoon and evening hours only to return yet again tonight and into Sunday morning.
At times, rain will fall at a moderate to heavy intensity tonight into Sunday, especially across the eastern half of the state. Additional rainfall totals of 1″ to 2″ can be expected in and around the city, itself, and points east.
The other item of interest tonight will be the tight temperature gradient across the state. Don’t be surprised by perhaps as much of a 30° spread from north to central parts of the state this evening as the “backdoor” cold front begins to drop south. You’ll certainly notice once the front passes.
Eventually, cold will overwhelm and the second half of the weekend will wrap up on a downright “raw” note. As precipitation wraps around the area of low pressure Sunday night and Monday, it’ll fall as snow here. In fact, snowfall intensity is likely to be great enough to put down a coating in spots Monday morning across central Indiana.
Drier weather returns Tuesday before a weak weather system deliver gusty winds and a possible shower Wednesday (not a big deal). The majority of the upcoming week will run well below average- highlighted by the coldest day on Monday and reinforcing chill Thursday and Friday.
Our next storm system of significance will be slated for an arrival next weekend. While we’ll have to fine tune timing as we get closer, plan on increasing rain chances as the day progresses next Saturday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/04/14/week-ahead-cool-continues-to-dominate/
Apr 03
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/04/03/video-one-day-of-spring-before-we-go-back-to-winter/
Apr 02
I. On the heels of a record-setting Easter snow event, attention will turn to showers (by this evening) and even the potential of gusty thunderstorms (Tuesday).
Forecast radar 10p.
Forecast radar 5a Tuesday.
Best chance of the possibility of a strong to severe thunderstorm will lie within the southern half of the state, primarily south of the I-70 corridor. Greatest threats are large hail and damaging straight line winds.
All of us stand the chance of a thunderstorm as the cold front sweeps through the state Tuesday night.
Forecast radar 8p Tuesday.
II. Much colder air will rush back into Indiana Tuesday night and the air will grow cold enough to allow lingering precipitation to transition to snow showers Wednesday morning. Don’t expect any accumulation this go around.
III. Our next focus is on the prospects of late week/ weekend snow. Models will continue to struggle with the finite details over the next few days. I’m not so sure the suppressed look displayed currently is the correct one. Let’s remember, this time last week models were taking our Easter storm well to our south. We’ll keep a close eye on things over the next few days.
IV. Regardless of whether we get additional snow down or not, a first-class late season arctic blast will drill south this weekend. This will be cold enough to keep temperatures in the 30s for highs Friday and Saturday. Brutal stuff for early-April when average highs are around 60…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/04/02/another-busy-week/
Mar 18
Though we were greeted with a cold and frosty start to our Sunday, high pressure will supply plentiful sunshine as we wrap up the St. Patrick’s Day weekend. Find a patio this afternoon that’s showing the Madness and soak up that Vitamin D. The increasingly powerful March sun angle will help boost temperatures into the middle to upper 50s for most of central Indiana.
Things will begin to change as we open up a new work week. Surface low pressure will track out of the central Plains into the lower Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday. This will spread moisture into the southern half of the state Monday evening. With air just cold enough, precipitation will mix with and perhaps change to a wintry mix of sleet and wet snow along the northern periphery of the precipitation overnight into Tuesday morning.
March snow events can offer “surprises” and we’ll need to keep a close eye on the precise details pertaining to the track of the upper low Monday night into Tuesday. Under and just north of these little bundles of energy can often times be the spot for a wet snow “thump” this time of year. For now, it appears areas from southern IN into Ohio may be the sweet spot for a late season accumulating snow event.
The mid week stretch should be showcased by dry, but unseasonably chilly conditions. Lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s aren’t what many Hoosiers on Spring Break want to deal with…
Our next item of significance arrives Friday as a warm front lifts northeast through the Ohio Valley. This will result in a wet close to the work week.
Looking ahead, the weather pattern sure looks active to wrap up March and open April, including above average precipitation and potentially an “uptick” in severe weather episodes…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/18/brilliant-close-to-the-weekend-wet-snow-thump-for-some-early-week/
Mar 14
While we continue to believe more of a wholesale pattern change awaits early-mid April, we still have a long way to go before we can shake the overall wintry pattern. When the pattern does flip, the potential is certainly there (as alluded to last weekend) for a rather “turbulent” time, including an uptick on the severe front.
Before we get to April, we still have a prolonged period of overall colder than normal conditions to deal with. We don’t have any changes to the idea the northern Plains are ground-zero for coldest anomalies, but, it’ll also be plenty chilly, locally, as well.
A couple of storm systems continue to have our attention over the upcoming week:
Potential of freezing rain, especially across the northern half and northeastern parts of the state Friday night into the morning hours Saturday.
Secondly, rain arriving on the scene Monday that will transition to wet snow Tuesday into Wednesday morning, as illustrated by the European model below.
From this distance, neither storms seem to be a “big deal” for central Indiana. However, we know March storms can “surprise.” Just ask our friends across KY earlier this week. 🙂 Spring warmth attacking south of systems combined with unusually cold air, associated with the blocking, just to our north can lead to all sorts of fun and models may have to play catch up last minute in some areas. At the very least, we recommend keeping an eye on the forecast over the next week, or so.
On a more positive note, it still looks like we’ll enjoy plentiful sunshine tomorrow and after a raw, damp start to our St. Patrick’s Day, drier times should win out Saturday afternoon into Sunday.
Much more later!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/14/only-the-messenger/
Feb 24
Our Saturday morning will be dominated by soaking rains as moisture continues to stream across the Midwest and Ohio Valley, including central Indiana. Add in temperatures in the lower to middle 40s and you have our official approval to sleep in this morning. 🙂
Steady rain will give way to briefly drier conditions early to mid afternoon. While scattered showers will still be present, widespread moderate to heavy rain will diminish. Here’s a look at the forecast radar at 3p:
Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will return by evening, and forecast radar products at 8p and 2a Sunday show the stormy times well:
A couple of storms may become strong to severe (especially downstate). Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has expanded the threat of severe weather to encompass more of the state.
We’re most concerned for the potential of stronger storms to produce damaging winds, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out tonight. Additionally, we’ll also have to be on guard for potential of flash flooding as storms will be capable of torrential rainfall. Heavy rain falling on already saturated soils may lead to problems in spots tonight into early Sunday.
After early morning storms head east Sunday, high pressure will build in with drier conditions and increasing sunshine Sunday. It’ll be a very nice close to the weekend, and calm, pleasant conditions will continue as we progress through the early portions of the new work week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/02/24/heavy-rain-this-morning-nighttime-storms/
Feb 23
Today will feature a continuation of gloomy conditions, including areas of fog and drizzle- especially this morning.
Thankfully, most of central Indiana will get a break from significant rainfall through the majority of our Friday, but a new batch of steady to occasionally heavy rain will build in overnight into the day Saturday.
Forecast radar 2a Saturday.
Forecast radar 10a Saturday.
We’ll add thunderstorms into the forecast Saturday night into the predawn hours Sunday as a deepening surface low tracks into the Great Lakes and sweeps a cold front through the state Sunday morning. A couple of these storms could become strong across central Indiana and even severe downstate. As such, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included the southern half of Indiana in a “marginal” risk of severe during this time period. We’ll keep a close eye on models over the next 24 hours as it’s possible this marginal and slight risk may need to be expanded further north.
Forecast radar 7p Saturday.
Forecast radar 1a Sunday.
Thankfully, drier air will quickly sweep into the state Sunday afternoon and this should allow sunshine to return as we close the weekend. Beforehand, additional rainfall of 1″ to 2″ will be widespread across central Indiana with locally heavier totals.
High pressure will settle overhead to open the new work week, allowing for a quieter time of things before a new active period develops by the middle of the week…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/02/23/wet-weekend-gives-way-to-a-drier-open-to-the-new-week/
Feb 22
While “nuisance” type showers are possible through the daytime hours, most of Thursday will provide a break from significant rainfall. Unfortunately, additional periods of moderate to heavy rain will return as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend. In particular, we’re targeting the following for additional heavy rainfall:
Embedded thunderstorms may target southern Indiana late tonight and Friday morning before more widespread thunderstorms (a couple could become strong) Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included the southern half of the state in a “marginal risk” of severe thunderstorms Saturday.
All total, additional rainfall between now and Sunday morning should reach 2″ to 3″ across a widespread portion of the southern half of Indiana with locally heavier amounts.
We’ll finally dry things out as we close the weekend and head into early next week as high pressure settles overhead.
Next week will begin a pattern transition from the unseasonably warm weather we’ve enjoyed as of late to a colder regime for the first half of March. We note models continue to tank the NAO and AO.
Accordingly, the models are seeing the trough and associated colder than average pattern returning to the eastern half of the country as we rumble through the first half of March. With such a strong block in place, this can turn into an active pattern for a couple weeks to go along with the cold. Both the GEFS and EPS agree on the overall look.
While there’s no way to get specific on the individual storm threats that will eventually come with this pattern, the potential is present for a few storms to “bowl” underneath the block through the first 10-15 days of the month. Each storm will have the capability of delivering wintry precipitation, but this can also be a tricky time of year where most, if not all, ingredients need to come together to create significant wintry events. In a winter that’s been frustrating to central Indiana snow lovers (frigid, but dry first half and milder, wetter second half), perhaps it would be fitting to get a couple good snow dumps in March (when most are wanting and ready for spring)…
Colder times return for the first half of March.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/02/22/heavy-rain-thunder-and-colder-for-the-1st-half-of-march/
Jan 28
The January “thaw” has taken hold the past 7-10 days.
Despite the milder air over the past week, January, as a whole, is still running 4° below average at Indianapolis- a byproduct of just how frigid the first half of the month was.
While the January thaw has been nice, times are changing and winter sure seems to be reloading for a very active second half.
Initially, we think it’s the storminess that will be most impressive as a “fight” develops between resistance from southern ridging and a new mean trough pushing southeast. The end result should be multiple snow and ice makers from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley and northeast over the upcoming couple of weeks.
Once we get a snowpack laid down, arctic highs oozing southeast will likely lead to bitterly cold air. Recall our expectation for this pattern to yield at least (1) night of double-digit below zero lows, but it’s more towards mid-month that we think the severe cold takes hold.
Teleconnections are lining up and in overall agreement of cold, wintry times returning.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to rotate into the colder phase 8 as we rumble from early to mid February. Given the amplitude of the MJO, it should continue to rumble right through the cold phases of 1,2, and 3.
All of these moving pieces that lead up to extended periods of cold, wintry conditions are part of a bigger outcome low solar, easterly QBO winters deal up. What we should experience with this setup is a 6-7 week period of wintry conditions, including times of severe cold. It appears to be a snowier version of what we went through late-December through mid-January. Hang in there, spring will come…eventually.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/01/28/transition-begins-back-to-a-prolonged-sustained-wintry-pattern/