Feb 19
A “thump” of sleet and snow will give way to strong storm potential Saturday. Looking ahead, winter appears to make a comeback during the 1st half of March…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/19/tuesday-morning-video-update-from-snow-to-storms-and-looking-ahead-to-march/
Feb 18
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/18/impactful-snow-ice-event-gives-way-to-strong-storm-potential/
Feb 16
2019 IndyWx.com Spring Outlook
Forecaster: Team; Date Issued: 02.16.19
Last spring was a tale of two seasons in itself. March (featured a foot of snow) and April were significantly colder than normal and then we shifted things to summer in May (the last month of meteorological spring was close to 10 degrees above normal). As a whole, it was a quiet severe weather season.
Despite the wild swings, at the end of the day, things “balanced out” nicely across the central Ohio Valley, including central Indiana.
As we look ahead to what the 2019 version holds, here are a few headlines that have our attention:
I. Weak Nino is behaving more like a Nina (Tropical Northern Hemisphere pattern can be thanked for this).
II. Neutral NAO is expected
III. Neutral PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)
In addition, we’re paying special attention to the SST configuration in the Gulf of Mexico. A warmer than average GOM can most certainly lead to a more “hyper” severe weather season as spring gets going.
The late winter/ early spring drought monitor can give a hint where early warmth may try and get going. However, this year, we can’t rely on this tool as the Plains and East, including the heart of the #AGbelt, have seen copious amounts of moisture over the winter.
Let’s look at what the model guidance is printing out for meteorological spring:
JMA
CFSv2
JAMSTEC
European Seasonal
Summary
We anticipate a slightly warmer than average spring season across not only central Indiana, but the Mid West and Ohio Valley region, as a whole. A weak El Nino is expected to persist into the upcoming summer and the conditions typically associated with such should eventually show themselves (as opposed to more of a Nina-like flavor now) through the spring. We agree with the consensus of model guidance above that March is likely to feature the coldest temperatures, relative to normal, and that’s primarily due to what should be a colder 1st half of the month before more bonafide spring conditions take hold the 2nd half of the month. Precipitation is anticipated to run near average, if not slightly below average, levels through the spring. As for severe weather, we expect a much busier season than last year, especially with the warm SSTs lurking in the Gulf of Mexico.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/16/2019-spring-outlook/
Feb 07
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/07/thursday-afternoon-all-access-video-update/
Feb 07
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has significantly expanded the “slight risk” area to include a large portions of the state.
While a fresh batch of heavy rain will move into central Indiana later this morning (another 1″ to 2″ is a good bet for most communities), the focus shifts to a window where severe thunderstorms will be possible during the early to mid afternoon.
A warm front will lift north through central IN late morning and this will allow relatively warm and moist air to briefly surge as far north as a Logansport to Fort Wayne line.
Note dew points will spike to 60 to 63 degrees over much of central and eastern IN this afternoon.
It’s during the 1p to 5p window when we’re most concerned for the chance of a few severe thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Damaging winds are of greatest concern, but anytime you have a warm front hanging around central Indiana with these kinds of setups, the potential of a tornado is in the back of your mind. I don’t foresee this being a major tornado outbreak whatsoever, but parameters do suggest the chance of a quick spin-up tornado is present, as well during this timeframe.
The cold front will crash into Indianapolis between 4p and 5p and you’ll certainly know it.
Strong and gusty northwest winds will blow sharply cold air into the region this evening and tonight. In fact, highs in the lower to middle 60s this afternoon will be into the 20s before midnight. Lows Friday morning will fall into the 10s and highs Friday will only top out in the lower 20s with wind chill values in the single digits most of the day.
After a dry open to the weekend, we continue to monitor the potential of a light wintry event Sunday into early Monday. This doesn’t appear to be a big deal, but the chance is there for an inch or two of snow for portions of the central and northern Ohio Valley during this timeframe.
Additional challenges await early and mid next week, but we’ll save those for updates later this afternoon or evening.
JMA Weeklies
The updated JMA Weeklies are in and in short suggest the southeast ridge continues to put up a fight over the next couple of weeks before getting “squashed” in the Weeks 3-4 timeframe.
This is in line with our thinking of the “transitional” period beginning this upcoming week. We think cold will begin to “push,” but isn’t ready to lock-in as of yet. There will be cold readily available to present more of a wintry potential with storms that track through the region when compared to this week, but we think it’s the period from 2/17 through early March that has the capability of featuring more sustained cold.
That’s a strong signal being painted by the JMA Weeklies in the Weeks 3-4 timeframe for widespread cold. Given that the MJO is forecast to swing into Phase 8 by this timeframe, along with the NAO/ AO looking to dip negative, the widespread cold look is a good idea to us during this particular time period.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/07/dissecting-todays-severe-potential-winter-returns-looking-more-in-depth-at-the-new-jma-weeklies/
Feb 06
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/06/from-strong-storm-potential-to-late-weekend-snow-updated-long-range-thoughts/
Feb 06
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/06/wednesday-morning-video-update-heavy-rain-severe-threat-give-way-to-much-colder-air-and-a-potential-late-weekend-winter-event/
Feb 05
There’s sure no shortage of active weather, and unfortunately (or fortunately- depending on your perspective), there’s no letup in sight. As we look ahead, we see a fascinating battle of heavyweights set to duke it out for control of our mid and late February pattern. Before we get into some of the longer range model updates, let’s focus on the short and medium term challenges.
Heavy Rain
We continue to target (3) distinct windows where rainfall will be heaviest:
I. Late tonight-Wednesday morning
II. Wednesday night-Thursday morning
III. Thursday evening
In general, widespread 2″ to 2.5″ totals are expected in area rain gauges with heavier amounts across south-central Indiana (where flood risks are highest).
The other item to note? The potential of strong and gusty thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into the early evening. These would be located directly ahead of the cold front. While we’re not anticipating a widespread major event, temperatures and dew points will approach 60 deg. and the atmosphere will be favorable to support a few strong gusts that may mix down to the surface.
Sharply Colder
The cold front that will deliver the heavy rainfall for our midweek will sweep through central Indiana around 4p-5p. Behind the boundary, sharply colder air will blow in on strong and gusty northwest winds Thursday night. Daytime highs (actual highs will occur at midnight Friday) will only top out in the lower 20s with wind chill values in the 0s most of the day.
Winter Threat Late Weekend-Early Next Week?
The fresh batch of cold air in here to wrap up the work week will lay the ground work for potential wintry mischief late weekend into early next week. While the cold still isn’t set to truly establish itself (still think we’re a week-10 days away from that), just enough cold may be around to present the opportunity for an accumulating central and northern Ohio Valley winter threat in the Sunday-Tuesday period. Stay tuned as we fine tune things.
The hesitation that we still have from beginning to “ring the bells” a little louder in the aforementioned period is the position of the high in front of the storm and forecast strongly positive AO. Both of these argue against the idea of this being a widespread wintry event for the southern, and potentially as far north as central Ohio Valley. The early idea here as of now is that we’ll be looking at a wintry mix event to rain for central and southern areas with more of an opportunity for substantial snow across the northern portions of the Ohio Valley. Again, stay tuned as we continue to fine tune things.
Longer term, today’s MJO update continues to take things into Phase 8 and you don’t need us to cover the end result again (think cold) at this point. Should we get the other teleconnections to line-up (AO, PNA, NAO) then a 2-3 week period of significant winter weather would ensue during the 2/20-3/10 timeframe…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/05/whole-lot-of-weather-going-on/
Jan 29
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/29/dangerous-cold-now-accumulating-snow-by-thursday-evening/
Jan 28
The first of two cold fronts is sweeping through the state this evening. Temperatures are turning cold enough to combine with leftover moisture and light snow showers to result in…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/28/severe-arctic-blast-looking-ahead/