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Category: Severe Weather
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/07/scattered-storms-develop-this-evening-and-tonight/
Apr 06
#AGwx & Weekly Severe Weather Outlook…
With the first Saturday of April upon us, it’s time for our 1st installment of a weekly update dedicated just to our AG interests. These are updates private clients have been receiving for years and we’re excited to be able to include these Saturday updates within the All-Access platform now. These updates will be posted on Saturdays through the end of September.
Forecast Period: 04.07.19-04.14.19
7-Day Precipitation: Average amounts of precipitation expected.
7-Day Temperatures: Above normal temperatures expected.
Severe Weather:
We’re monitoring the possibility of severe weather Sunday (4.7.19) across the southern half of the state. Additionally, there’s the threat of strong to severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening (4.11.19).
Summary:
The upcoming forecast period will be dominated by (2) systems. A warm front will lift north across central Indiana Sunday morning and feature a couple of rounds of thunderstorms across the southern half of the state. While a significant and widespread severe weather outbreak isn’t expected, a couple of strong to severe storms are possible Sunday morning and again Sunday afternoon. Greatest concerns include a threat of large hail and damaging straight line winds.
A second storm system will impact the area Thursday afternoon and evening. Model guidance has trended significantly further north with the track of the surface low and accordingly, trends would favor a warmer solution here, along with the likelihood of more in the way of Gulf of Mexico moisture being pulled as far north as the OHV region. We’ll need to monitor for the threat of additional strong to severe storms during the Thursday afternoon/ evening time frame.
Behind the cold front, drier and cooler air will work into the area as we get set to close the work week. The upcoming week will be dominated by highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 50s. Temperatures will trend cooler late week and next weekend (more like highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/06/agwx-weekly-severe-weather-outlook/
Apr 06
VIDEO: Scattered Storms Impact The Area Sunday; Timing Out Next Week’s Systems…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/06/video-scattered-storms-impact-the-area-sunday-timing-out-next-weeks-systems/
Apr 05
Enjoy The Spring Warmth While We’ve Got It: Cold, Stormy Pattern On Deck…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/05/enjoy-the-spring-warmth-while-weve-got-it-cold-stormy-pattern-on-deck/
Apr 05
April Turns Active: Timing Out Storms…
A series of storm systems will impact the OHV region over the next couple of weeks. As we look at the overall pattern, a negative NAO will begin to have significant influence on the overall pattern through mid-April. We note the mean trough position settles into the western portion of the country with a reflection of a southeast ridge in place. Accordingly, the Ohio Valley will find itself in the middle of the primary storm track as we progress through the middle part of the month.
With said pattern in place, precipitation is expected to run above, to significantly above, normal during the mid-month stretch.
After a gorgeous Saturday (sunshine and lower 70s), the first of a series of storm systems will begin to impact the region Sunday. A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across southern and central IN- especially during the afternoon.
Thereafter, additional dates to monitor for storm impacts include the following:
Wednesday night and Thursday- April 10th and 11th
Saturday and Sunday- April 13th and 14th
Wednesday and Thursday- April 17th and 18th
We’ll be able to get much more specific with these individual storms as we get closer! An updated video will hit this evening looking closer at Sunday’s storm threat. In the meantime, get set to kick off the weekend with superb weather!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/05/april-turns-active/
Apr 04
Pattern Returns To An Active Time Of Things…
One word to describe the mid-April weather pattern? ACTIVE. Tonight’s medium and long range video update dives in further…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/04/pattern-returns-to-an-active-time-of-things/
Mar 24
Sunday Evening Video Update: Heavy Rain; Strong Storms Expected For Southern IN Tonight…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/24/sunday-evening-video-update-heavy-rain-strong-storms-expected-for-southern-in-tonight/
Mar 24
Heavy Rain, Couple Strong Storms Possible Across Southern IN Tonight…
Scattered showers will spread across central Indiana at times through the day. Most of this rain will be light in nature through the afternoon hours, but a couple of moderate showers are also possible.
A surface low will track east across the lower Ohio Valley tonight and this will result in more concentrated heavy rain falling across the southern portion of the state this evening into early Monday morning. This is a bit further south than model guidance suggested yesterday. Additionally, a couple of strong thunderstorms are also possible tonight across far southern Indiana.
It wouldn’t surprise us to see the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) include portions of southern Indiana in a ‘Marginal’ or ‘Slight’ risk of severe weather tonight with future updates.
With the more southern track now expected from this storm system, the corridor of .50″ to 1″ rainfall totals will settle across the southern portions of Indiana, with 0.10″ to 0.25″ expected for central Indiana on average.
Rain will come to an end for all of the state by mid to late morning Monday with dry conditions returning Monday evening into the middle of the week, thanks to high pressure.
Dry and pleasant conditions will remain in place through the daytime hours Thursday before a storm system approaches Thursday night into Friday. The gusty southwesterly air flow in advance of this storm will help pull warmer conditions northeast into the Ohio Valley. Highs between 65-70 are on tap by Thursday afternoon. Unsettled weather is anticipated to remain through next weekend along with progressively colder conditions.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/24/heavy-rain-couple-strong-storms-possible-across-southern-in-tonight/
Mar 23
Spring Flood Outlook…
It’s been since 2013 since the Lower 48 has seen greater snow cover on the 23rd of March.
Officially, 25.4% of the Lower 48 is currently snow covered, including crucial areas that feed downstream rivers in the north-central Plains and upper Midwest.
NOAA released their Spring Flood Outlook Friday. This shows major to moderate flooding expected on area rivers from the northern Plains south along the MS River. Even moderate to minor river flooding is anticipated across the east, including the Ohio Valley.
The full report can be found here.
As we move into April, a ridge is expected to back west and result in an active storm track from the west into the Mid West and Great Lakes. The end result will be a favorable pattern for above average precipitation. Factor that in with the above average late season snowpack currently in place across the exact same region, and the stage is set for moderate to significant river flooding through the remainder of the spring.
More specific to central Indiana, we also expect an active spring storm track- including precipitation that is around “average” from the March through May (meteorological spring) period. As warmth expands as we move into mid-April, expect an uptick in severe weather episodes further north during the 2nd half of April into May.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/23/spring-flood-outlook/
Mar 19
Disruption In The Force…
There are growing indications the once thought warm flip in the pattern will be delayed. While “seasonality” is helping us certainly improve in the temperature department from the frigid open to March, data is trending (and some dramatically so) colder for late March and early April.
Part of this can be attributed to the persistent AK ridge and positive PNA/ negative EPO pattern in place. Without question, medium and long range modeling as early as less than a week ago missed this. Note the above image and tendency for prolonged ridging across AK into early April. This will favor cooler anomalies downstream, including here across central Indiana. That’s not to say there won’t be multiple warm and pleasant days thrown in the mix (it’s late March, after all), but instead to say that the pattern overall looks much cooler when compared to what the majority of data was painting only a handful of days ago.
Embedded within this pattern will come a return of active times, including multiple storm systems of note over the upcoming 10-14 days. The flavor of said systems will change from originally thought as hefty rain and potential severe events to rain and perhaps some wintry precipitation. With that said, specifics are impossibly to come by in this “chaotic” pattern and we suggest staying tuned as we get closer to the arrival of the first system early next week.
Like your weather pattern “interesting?” You’re in luck over the upcoming couple of weeks…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/19/disruption-in-the-force/