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Category: Severe Weather
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/15/video-improving-early-week-weather-active-pattern-leading-up-to-easter/
Apr 14
NowCast Update On This Afternoon’s Storm Threat Across The Ohio Valley…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/14/nowcast-update-on-this-afternoons-storm-threat-across-the-ohio-valley/
Apr 14
VIDEO: We Turn Much Colder This Evening; Timing Out Storms Into Easter Weekend And We Also Review The Late April Pattern…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/14/video-we-turn-much-colder-this-evening-timing-out-storms-into-easter-weekend-and-we-also-review-the-late-april-pattern/
Apr 13
#AGwx & Weekly Severe Weather Outlook
Before we look ahead to the upcoming period, reviewing April so far shows a warm and dry start to the month. April 2019 is running nearly 5 F above average and 0.76″ below normal in the rainfall department.
Forecast Period: 04.14.19 through 04.21.19
7-Day Precipitation: Above normal amounts of precipitation expected during the period.
7-Day Temperatures: Above normal temperatures expected during the period.
Severe Weather:
A risk of strong to potentially severe storms looms across southeast portions of the state Sunday (4.14.19). While widespread severe weather isn’t anticipated, there’s the potential of scattered strong storms Thursday, 04.18.19.
Summary:
A strong spring storm system will deliver heavy rain and thunderstorms late tonight into Sunday. Due to the track of the surface low, a tight temperature gradient can be expected across the state Sunday. Low-mid 60s are on deck across SE IN with upper 30s across western and northern portions of the state. In the warmer sector, a severe threat looms Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. Large hail is the primary concern with storms that may form. Elsewhere, a rather widespread 1″ to 2″ of rain is a good bet with the passage of this system.
While we’ll remain cool to open the work week, a warm front will lift north Tuesday helping to usher in much warmer conditions for the mid-week stretch (70s return). The next system will approach Wednesday into Thursday with scattered showers and thunderstorms (some of which may be strong Thursday). That particular system will track overhead Friday into next weekend with cooler air returning during the period (highs in the 50s and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s for next weekend).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/13/agwx-weekly-severe-weather-outlook-2/
Apr 11
Thursday Night Storm Update; Heavy Rain Maker Sunday…
We’re still quiet across central Indiana just before 10:30p, but showers and thunderstorms will overspread the area during the overnight. Best chances of the potential of damaging straight line winds will be along the western IN state line, but a couple of embedded strong storms and locally heavy rain will encompass all of the central portion of the state after midnight. Greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms will come during the window of 1a and 6a.
Total rainfall amounts will average between 0.50″ and 1″ with a couple of locally heavier totals.
We still expect the rain to exit stage right well before the lunchtime hour Friday with dry conditions prevailing as we get set to put a wrap on the work week.
After the warmest day so far this year, temperatures will be much cooler Friday behind the cold front (to the tune of 20-30 degrees)!
Dry conditions will continue through the daytime Saturday, but a big ole wet storm system will be taking shape to our southwest by that time and it’ll have its’ eyes set on our area for an overnight arrival Sunday. The second half of the weekend will be dominated by gusty winds and wet conditions.
An all day soaker is expected with heavy rain at times. An additional 1″ to 2″ is a good bet Sunday.
After a dry open to April, we’re set to make up for the quiet times (and some) over the course of the next few days, and the hits don’t look to stop there as we head into next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/11/thursday-night-storm-update-heavy-rain-maker-sunday/
Apr 11
Wet And Active Pattern On Deck…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/11/wet-and-active-pattern-on-deck/
Apr 10
Strong Storms Thursday Night; Early Summer Ideas…
The daytime Thursday will be dominated by a summer-like feel as highs approach the 80 degree mark, along with an increasingly gusty SW wind ahead of an approaching cold front. We’ll stay dry through the day and it’s not until we get to the overnight hours when storm chances will begin to increase.
More specifically, we think the hours between 12a and 5a will offer up the best chance of a slow moving line of storms to track across central Indiana. A couple of these storms could produce damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall can also be expected with widespread amounts of 0.50″ to 1″ with a few 1″+ totals likely by the time we get to sunrise Friday. The rain will be well to our east by lunchtime Friday and a dry close to the day is on tap.
On the heels of this storm will come another wet weather maker Saturday night and Sunday and tomorrow morning’s video update will have more details around timing and rainfall amounts with that system.
Early Summer Ideas
I. Weak El Nino anticipated to persist through the Summer of 2019.
II. Warm SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast Coast.
We’ll have our complete official Summer Outlook posted during the first week of May, but wanted to share our early thoughts. Overall, a warmer than average summer is expected with average to slightly above normal rainfall, locally.
The warmer than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) raise concern for the potential of well above average precipitation across the Southeast and MidAtlantic regions. Additionally, those warm water conditions also mean we’ll need to keep close eyes on the potential of tropical activity early on in the season in the Gulf or off the SE coastline.
Much more next month, including graphics!
Talk with you bright and early in the AM!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/10/strong-storms-thursday-night-early-summer-ideas/
Apr 10
VIDEO: Severe Potential Thursday Night; Wet Close To The Weekend…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/10/video-severe-potential-thursday-night-wet-close-to-the-weekend/
Apr 09
Continuing To Monitor Thursday’s Storm Threat; 2nd Storm Delivers A Wet Close To The Weekend…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/09/continuing-to-monitor-thursdays-storm-threat-2nd-storm-delivers-a-wet-close-to-the-weekend/
Apr 08
Monitoring The Threat Of Strong-Severe Storms Thursday Evening…
We continue to monitor the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday evening across the region. Already, the Storm Prediction Center highlights the possibility in their Day 4 Outlook below.
The setup will feature unseasonably warm and moist air being drawn northeastward ahead of a strong spring storm system to our northwest Thursday. This is the same storm system that will deliver a late season blizzard to the north-central Plains and upper Midwest.
A trailing cold front will push east into the unseasonably warm air mass (expecting highs in the mid-upper 70s Thursday with a strong and gusty SW wind) and we expect a line of thunderstorms to organize to our west Thursday afternoon. While timing will have to be fine tuned over the next couple of days, current thinking places this line of storms into central Indiana by Thursday evening. The primary threat continues to be damaging straight line winds.
We’ll turn drier and cooler to close the week and another storm system will approach by Saturday night. This particular storm system looks to deliver a widespread cold, soaking rain especially across the eastern half of the OHV region- from central IN and points east. More on this storm after we get rid of Thursday’s storms.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/08/monitoring-the-threat-of-strong-severe-storms-thursday-evening/