Category: Severe Weather

Jul 14

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Forecast period: 07.14.19 through 07.21.19

7-Day Precipitation: Rainfall is expected to run near to slightly above average through the period.

7-Day Temperature Outlook: Temperatures are expected to run well above average by the end of the period.

Severe Outlook: While widespread, organized severe weather isn’t expected through the forecast period, a couple isolated strong to severe cells are possible this afternoon (large hail is the primary concern, along with downburst wind potential). Additionally, we’ll also keep an eye on the threat of thunderstorm complexes riding southeast through the state late in the period- towards next weekend.

Summary: The story early in the forecast period will be Barry’s remnant moisture moving north and northeast across the Ohio Valley early in the work week. While we’re not expecting excessive rain across central Indiana, rain chances will be on the increase Monday through Wednesday. Thereafter, heat and humidity will be the story as a ridge of high pressure expands over the region. Dangerous heat and humidity is in store, including highs in the middle 90s and lows of 75-80 degrees into next weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/14/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-6/

Jul 09

VIDEO: Strong Storm Threat NW Tomorrow; Where Will Soon-To-Be Barry’s Remnants Track Next Week?

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/09/video-strong-storm-threat-nw-tomorrow-where-will-soon-to-be-barrys-remnants-track-next-week/

Jul 08

VIDEO: #AGwx And Severe Weather Update- What Role Will Soon-To-Be Barry Play Down The Road?

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/08/video-agwx-and-severe-weather-update-what-role-will-soon-to-be-barry-play-down-the-road/

Jul 01

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Forecast period: 07.01.19 through 07.08.19

7-Day Precipitation: Rainfall is expected to run above average through the period.

7-Day Temperature Outlook: Temperatures are expected to run above average through the period.

Severe Outlook: A ‘Marginal’ risk of severe weather is hoisted from the Storm Prediction Center for Wednesday, July 3rd. Otherwise, widespread organized severe weather isn’t anticipated.

Summary: A “rinse and repeat” pattern will spell daily chances of showers and thunderstorms along with an overall continuation of our hot and humid pattern from last week. Coverage of thunderstorms will likely be greatest Tuesday afternoon and evening, Wednesday afternoon and evening, and Friday evening into Saturday morning. Widespread rainfall amounts through the period should top out between 1″ and 1.5″, but there will be locally heavier amounts where stronger storms track. (A wholesale pattern change back to much cooler conditions is still on deck just past this forecast period).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/01/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-5/

Jun 30

VIDEO: “Rinse And Repeat” Through The Short-Term; Updated Long Range Thoughts…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/30/video-rinse-and-repeat-through-the-short-term-updated-long-range-thoughts/

Jun 23

Bumpy Ride Possible This Afternoon And Evening…

While the weather is currently quiet across central Indiana, that will likely change in a significant way as we progress into the afternoon and evening hours.

As we look at the current radar, note the widespread showers and thunderstorms off to our southwest. More importantly, the latest couple of frames indicate a strengthening line of storms beginning to “bow” out along the eastern flank (along the MO/ IL state line).

The environment in place upstream into southern and central Indiana remains one that would tend to favor these storms strengthening further in the coming hours.

We note the Storm Prediction Center has nudge the Slight Risk further north to encompass more of southern and central Indiana with their latest update and we would agree with this.

We think storm coverage (and intensity) will really begin to ramp up after 3p and the latest HRRR shows this nicely:

Greatest concern with any severe storms that develop has to do with strong and potentially damaging straight line winds. It’ll be important to remain weather-aware this afternoon into the evening hours.

*More later this evening, including our finalized July Outlook.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/23/bumpy-ride-possible-this-afternoon-and-evening/

Jun 23

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Forecast period: 06.24.19 through 06.30.19

7-Day Precipitation: Rainfall is expected to run near to slightly above average through the period.

7-Day Temperature Outlook: Temperatures are expected to run above average through the period.

Severe Outlook: While a couple of strong storms are possible during the period, widespread organized severe weather isn’t anticipated during the above forecast period.

Summary: The forecast period will feature an overall drier and warmer theme than what we’ve been used to of late. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger to open the work week before high pressure builds overhead and results in an overall dry forecast Tuesday. Upper level energy will allow scattered storms to return Wednesday before we dry things out again Thursday and Friday. As we look ahead to next weekend, a “backdoor” cold front will likely result in an uptick in rain chances Saturday followed by a cooler push of air by the 2nd half of next weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/23/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-4/

Jun 21

VIDEO: Timing Out Storm Impacts This Weekend; More July Chatter…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/21/video-timing-out-storm-impacts-this-weekend-more-july-chatter/

Jun 20

VIDEO: Turning Drier And Cooler This Afternoon; Storms Return This Weekend And Reviewing The NEW JMA Weeklies…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/20/video-turning-drier-and-cooler-this-afternoon-storms-return-this-weekend-and-reviewing-the-new-jma-weeklies/

Jun 19

Concerned For Significant Flooding Tonight Into Thursday…

The day is opening dry across central Indiana (and sunny for some), but another heavy rain event looms by the end of the day. The culprit? A stalled front remains draped across central Indiana and a surface wave will move along this boundary this afternoon into tonight. A “juicy” airmass will remain intact across the region with precipitable water values topping out at 2.5″ across the southern half of the state. This will promote any shower or thunderstorm that develops to drop very heavy rainfall in a short period of time (1″ to 2″ per hour at times).

As the surface wave interacts with the tropical air mass in place, widespread showers and thunderstorms will blossom across the region through the afternoon into tonight. Rain will continue into Thursday afternoon.

We’re still also concerned for severe weather this afternoon and evening, including a couple of tornadoes across the southern half of the state.

By the time the rain comes to an end Thursday evening, widespread 2″ to 4″ can be expected across the heart of the state, including Indianapolis, itself.

If that’s not enough, heavy rain and thunderstorms will return late Friday and continue in an “off and on” fashion straight through the weekend.

Unfortunately, some central Indiana rain gauges can expect to pick up an additional 5″+ of rain between this afternoon and next Tuesday…

Another unsettled weekend is on tap.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/19/concerned-for-significant-flooding-tonight-into-thursday/

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