Apr 06
Updated 04.06.24 @ 11:06a We couldn’t ask for better weather today (after that cold start). You earned it, friends! Clouds quickly return Sunday and give way to late afternoon and…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-saturday-stunner-gives-way-to-sunday-storms-perfect-timing-monday-ahead-of-more-heavy-rain/
Apr 02
Updated 04.02.24 @ 6:44a
It’ll be important to remain weather-aware this afternoon as a final round of severe storms move through the state. Morning rain will come to an end soon and then we’ll see a “lull” in the action late morning. Upstream satellite images are concerning as it appears we’ll break into sunshine for a while late morning into early afternoon. This will quickly get to work on the atmosphere and aid in a turbulent time of things through the early and mid afternoon. In fact, as the Storm Prediction Center gets a look at the setup post-sunrise, it wouldn’t surprise us if each of the respective risk areas gets pulled back further west.
Regardless, storms will redevelop just after lunchtime across western Indiana and intensify on their journey east through the afternoon. By evening, most if not all of the activity will be out of the state.
All modes of severe weather will be possible area-wide today. We’re particularly worried about an elevated tornado outbreak across the Ohio Valley, especially if clearing takes hold for a while late morning. Take warnings seriously if and when they are issued, friends.
Strong westerly winds will take hold by evening, quickly pushing a colder and more stable airmass into town, thankfully.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/bumpy-ride-this-afternoon/
Mar 31
Updated 03.31.24 @ 7:26a
The upcoming immediate term will be headlined by a multi day heavy rain and severe weather episode. A stalled frontal boundary will serve as the pathway for multiple waves of low pressure to ride along through Tuesday. In addition to a heavy rain and flooding threat (primarily targeting immediate central and north-central Indiana), we’ll also likely have to deal with (3) rounds of severe storms. We’ll allow our short-term products to handle those severe threats, but just know all modes of severe are on the table with the greatest emphasis being on large hail with this setup. Should a couple discrete cells develop near or just south of the boundary then an elevated tornado threat would ensue. Again, we’ll have a fresh post hoisted later this afternoon or evening on that.
Overall, there’s no change in the idea of an active pattern continuing from Week 1 (image 1 below) into Week 2 (image 2 below).
The cooler pattern behind our early week storm system will reverse in significant fashion Week 2. – Transitional regime at its finest.
Week 1 temperature anomalies
Week 2 temperature anomalies
The busy nature of the pattern is reflected in the upcoming 2 week precipitation anomalies.
Severe weather will be possible at least across a portion of our immediate viewing area starting this evening and continuing daily through Tuesday.
Colder air will crash in here Wednesday and as an upper low swirls overhead, wet snow will develop. Snow may even fall heavily enough to accumulate on grassy surfaces in spots Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
*Upcoming 10-Day Rainfall Projection: 3” to 4”+
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-49/
Mar 30
Updated 03.30.24 @ 5:07p
There’s not much, if anything, to change regarding the setup and anticipated outcome of the Easter Sunday through Tuesday timeframe. Periods of heavy rain will get going Sunday PM and we’ll also need to watch for the threat of severe storms not only tomorrow afternoon/ evening but again Monday.
Midday models are latching onto a widespread 2”-4”+ event.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has increased the threat area tomorrow afternoon. Large hail is greatest concern but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.
All modes of severe are on the table Monday, including tornado potential once again.
If all this wasn’t enough already, a much colder air mass will plunge into the region by midweek allowing rain to mix with and change to wet snow Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. The snow may even be heavy enough for slushy accumulations in spots.
Spring at its finest across the great Hoosier state…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/saturday-evening-thoughts-on-the-pending-heavy-rain-severe-event/
Mar 30
Updated 03.30.24 @ 7:16a
The combination of a quasi-stationary frontal boundary, increasingly warm and humid air, and multiple waves of low pressure riding along the aforementioned boundary will lead to several rounds of locally heavy rain and also pose a strong to severe storm risk as we go through the early stages of the new week.
Precipitable water values (PWATs) will approach 1.5” to 2” at times early week (a tough feat to come by this time of year). This only raises confidence in the opportunity for this setup to generate periods of heavy, and eventually excessive, rainfall.
Widespread 3”+ totals can be expected by the time all is said and done, with locally heavier amounts.
If the heavy rain event wasn’t enough, we also need to be on guard for the threat of severe storms Sunday and Monday.
In particular, it’s Monday’s risk of severe that has us most concerned, including all modes (hail, wind, and a TOR threat). We recommend reviewing your family’s severe weather safety plan and make sure to have a way to receive any warnings that may be issued.
The heavy rain event will come to an end by Tuesday evening, but if we didn’t have enough to track already, we’ll add in the potential of rain to mix with wet snow Wednesday. Regardless, expect a much colder and blustery time of things as this bigger storm departs by midweek.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/multiple-waves-of-heavy-rain-on-deck-severe-storm-risk-as-well/