Category: Severe Weather

Oct 20

Harvest ’19: Severe Storms For Southern IN Tomorrow? Precipitation And Temperature Trends Over The Upcoming 7-Days…

*Starting November 1st, our weekly agriculture and harvest updates will transition to weekly winter storm outlooks. We’ll maintain a lot of the feedback y’all have provided with the new weekly winter products. Come next growing season, the weekly agriculture and severe weather updates will return.

Forecast Period: 10.20.19 through 10.27.19

7-Day Precipitation: Average to slightly above average precipitation is expected through the period.

7-Day Temperatures: Below average temperatures are expected through the period.

Severe Weather: We’re monitoring the potential of a few strong to severe thunderstorms- mostly across southern portions of the state Monday afternoon and evening. The biggest concern has to do with the potential of damaging straight line winds with embedded cells that form directly ahead of the cold front tomorrow evening.

Frost/ Freeze: While most of the immediate region has already dealt with multiple hard frosts, frost and freeze conditions will expand south over the upcoming week. The coldest morning, overall, appears to be Saturday with the potential of a freeze extending south into the Ozarks and northern TN Valley.

Drought Monitor: The southern and eastern portion of the region remains in abnormally dry or drought conditions. The pattern ahead longer term does look favorable to erase a lot, if not all, of these dry/ droughty areas before the end of the year.

Summary: The upcoming 7-day period will feature two primary storm systems. The first arrives Monday with showers and thunderstorms. We’ll continue to monitor the potential of strong-severe storms across southern portions of Indiana tomorrow PM and update accordingly later this evening. The second system will be a colder feature and thunderstorms aren’t anticipated with Friday’s storm system. The pattern still seems poised to produce the coldest air so far this season just beyond the forecast period. Overall, upcoming 7-day rainfall totals are expected to range between 0.50″ and 0.75″ for most of immediate central Indiana.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/20/harvest-19-severe-storms-for-southern-in-tomorrow-precipitation-and-temperature-trends-over-the-upcoming-7-days/

Oct 15

VIDEO: Rain Develops By Evening; Potential Of Pre-Halloween Snow?

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/15/video-rain-develops-by-evening-potential-of-pre-halloween-snow/

Oct 14

Taste Of Winter Before Month’s End?

A cold front will whip through central Indiana Tuesday evening. Showers will accompany the frontal passage, but we still don’t anticipate much in the way of significant moisture across central Indiana. Heavier rainfall totals in excess of 0.50″ will likely fall across drought-stricken areas downstate.

Colder and blustery conditions will be with us Wednesday and Thursday, including wind chills in the upper 20s at times Wednesday morning.

A moderating trend will get underway this weekend as a gusty southwesterly breeze takes hold on the backside of retreating high pressure. This will lead to a couple of days of above normal warmth early next week (not quite done with the 70s just yet).

We’ll continue to monitor for a wet and stormy time of things Monday PM into Tuesday. The severe threat is to be determined and will require fine tuning as we push ahead over the next several days.

Once this area of low pressure and associated cold front blow through, colder air will arrive on gusty northwest winds by the middle to latter portions of next week.

This will set the tone for a rather significant colder shift as we get set to put a bow on the month of October. A secondary and more significant trough will descend into the region just after Day 10. With a developing negative EPO, positive PNA, and MJO heading for Phase 2, it’s time to start “beating the cold drum” a bit harder. In fact, latest 500mb charts would indicate there’s the potential of at least a little wintry mischief present to go along with the colder shift.

This should at least kick up the lake effect snow guns for the first time this season, and we’ll have to monitor things for the possibility of “backside” energy digging south at the base of the trough that would present the possibility of a little early season snow across parts of the Ohio Valley region as Halloween week nears…

Times, they are, indeed, ‘a changing…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/14/taste-of-winter-before-months-end/

Oct 13

Harvest ’19: Tis The Season For Changeable Weather Patterns…

*Starting November 1st, our weekly agriculture and harvest updates will transition to weekly winter storm outlooks. We’ll maintain a lot of the feedback y’all have provided with the new weekly winter products. Come next growing season, the weekly agriculture and severe weather updates will return.

Forecast Period: 10.13.19 through 10.20.19

7-Day Precipitation: Below average precipitation is expected through the period.

7-Day Temperatures: Below average temperatures are expected overall throughout the period.

Severe Weather: Severe weather isn’t anticipated through the period.

Frost/ Freeze: Many across the central and northern Ohio Valley have now recorded their first frost or freeze of the season. Additional frosty mornings are ahead during the upcoming forecast period with Thursday morning looking like the coldest as of now. The first frost and/ or freeze of the season will continue to advance southeast with the southern Appalachians likely putting an end to their growing season by Thursday morning.

Drought Monitor: The southern and eastern portion of the Ohio Valley remains in either a drought or abnormally dry state. Unfortunately, heaviest rains with Friday’s cold front targeted areas west or north of these areas. While the upcoming week won’t provide significant relief, the drivers behind the pattern ahead promise to deliver more frequent and beneficial precipitation events in the next 2-3 weeks.

Summary: The upcoming 7-day period will feature a quiet and pleasant open to the week before a fast moving system passes Tuesday evening with a round of showers followed by a windy mid-week period. Strong and gusty northwest winds will drive another unseasonably chilly air mass into central Indiana Tuesday night through Thursday before our air flow backs around to the south into next weekend. This will provide for modifying temperatures Friday into Saturday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/13/harvest-19-tis-the-season-for-changeable-weather-patterns/

Oct 10

VIDEO: Friday Will Feature Major Weather Changes Across The Region…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/10/video-friday-will-feature-major-weather-changes-across-the-region/

Oct 06

Harvest ’19: Weekly AG And Severe Weather Update…

Forecast Period: 10.06.19 through 10.13.19

7-Day Precipitation: Average precipitation is expected through the period.

7-Day Temperatures: Between some wide swings in the temperature department over the upcoming week, things should “balance out” right around seasonal norms when all is said and done.

Severe Weather: We’ll continue to monitor the possibility of a few strong storms Thursday evening into Friday as a potent cold front pushes across the region. A strong southerly flow will help to briefly pull a warmer and moist air mass north across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes and could be sufficient enough to promote strong-severe storms directly ahead of the boundary. We’ll have to fine tune timing in the days ahead, but target the period between late Thursday and Friday afternoon for now.

Frost/ Freeze: A killing freeze will put an end to the growing season across the Plains by late week and the season’s first frost will likely occur for many across the central and northern Ohio Valley next weekend.

Drought Monitor: Abnormally dry areas are still present across portions of east-central IN into Ohio with more widespread droughty areas across KY. Today’s weather system into early Monday will help our friends across southern IN and KY pick up beneficial rainfall.

Summary: A cold front will move through the area today into Monday morning with needed moisture, especially across southern areas of the viewing area. Cooler, drier air will settle into the state as we move through the early portion of the work week before things turn potentially stormy late week ahead of the next strong cold front. The coolest air so far this autumn season will arrive next weekend, including the potential of the first frost for some…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/06/harvest-19-weekly-ag-and-severe-weather-update/

Sep 30

Weekly AG And Severe Weather Update…

Forecast Period: 09.30.19 through 10.06.19

7-Day Precipitation: Below average precipitation is expected through the period.

7-Day Temperatures: Though significant cooling will take place later this week and weekend, overall, the period will run above average in the temperature department with the near record heat to open the period.

Severe Weather: Organized severe weather isn’t expected during the forecast period.

Frost/ Freeze: In addition to the Rockies, the upper Mid West, northern Great Lakes region, and interior Northeast will likely receive their first frost or freeze of the season Friday and/ or Saturday morning.

Drought Monitor: Widespread dry to droughty conditions exist across the lower Ohio Valley into the central Ohio Valley and lower Michigan. Portions of northern IL into northern IN and lower MI cashed in on excessive rainfall late last week and show greatly improved conditions from a drought perspective with this week’s update. Unfortunately, the cold front that’s set to deliver the much cooler air later this week won’t have much moisture to work with and an overall dry time of things should continue for the better part of the region.

Summary: A strong southwesterly air flow will promote anomalous heat as we traverse the first half of the work week. In some cases, records will fall across the Ohio Valley region. Looking ahead, a stout cold front will sink south in the Wednesday evening-Thursday time frame. A few showers are likely ahead of the front, but significant or widespread rainfall isn’t anticipated. The much bigger deal will be the significantly cooler air that arrives Thursday evening into the weekend. We’ll go from temperatures around 20 degrees above normal to open the work week to temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal by late week.

The next best shot of organized beneficial rainfall will arrive late Sunday into early Monday of next week…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/30/weekly-ag-and-severe-weather-update-8/

Sep 22

Weekly AG And Severe Weather Update…

Forecast Period: 09.22.19 through 09.29.19

7-Day Precipitation: Below average precipitation is expected through the period.

7-Day Temperatures: Well above average temperatures are expected through the period.

Severe Weather: Organized severe weather isn’t expected through the forecast period.

Frost/ Freeze: The growing season will come to an end this week across the central Rockies (frost and freeze warnings are up) and eventually across the Bitterroot range as lows fall into the mid and upper 20s by late week.

Drought Monitor: The latest drought monitor shows widespread dryness across the central and southern portions of the Ohio Valley, extending north and northwest into IA and MI. A good chunk of these dry/ droughty areas from MO, IA, and IL will be wiped out by Thursday’s update as beneficial soaking rains fall on this area today from the remnants of Imelda and a passing cold front.

Summary: A cold front and remnant moisture from Imelda will lead to better rain chances across central Indiana this evening into early Monday morning. With that said, the widespread soaking rains our friends just west of our area are receiving this morning will diminish as they move into central Indiana tonight. While there will be a couple of exceptions (with heavier rainfall totals), most central Indiana rain gauges will likely pick up between 0.25″ and 0.50″ tonight. Thereafter, temperatures will trend cooler (more seasonable) for the early and middle part of the work week before an expansive ridge engulfs the eastern portion of the country late week into Week 2. This will promote not only well above average warmth, but in some cases rival records.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/22/weekly-ag-and-severe-weather-update-7/

Sep 14

Weekly AG And Severe Weather Update…

Forecast Period: 09.15.19 through 09.21.19

7-Day Precipitation: Precipitation is expected to run below normal through the forecast period.

7-Day Temperatures: The upcoming forecast period above will feature well above average temperatures.

Severe Outlook: Widespread and organized severe weather isn’t expected through the forecast period.

Summary: A couple of storm complexes will “flirt” with central Indiana as we open up the new week, but these should be in a weakening state (if not flat-out diminish entirely) as they grow closer to our immediate region. Other than that, dry and warm/ hot weather is expected until late week. Things look increasingly unsettled with better coverage of showers and thunderstorms during this time. We’re still only looking at scattered coverage with any one particular rain gauge expected to accumulate less than half an inch by late next weekend.

*Next week’s AG/ Severe Weather Update will incorporate frost/ freeze outlooks, as well as drought discussion(s) across the Lower 48.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/14/weekly-ag-and-severe-weather-update-6/

Sep 08

Weekly AG And Severe Weather Outlook…

Forecast period: 09.08.19 through 09.15.19

7-Day Precipitation: Precipitation is expected to run below normal through the forecast period.

7-Day Temperature Outlook: Temperatures will run well above average through the forecast period above.

Severe Weather Outlook: Organized severe weather isn’t expected during the period.

Summary: After an unseasonably cool open to meteorological fall, summer-like heat will fight back over the upcoming week. Several days of highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected with unseasonably warm overnight lows around 70° by the middle part of the week and beyond. From a precipitation perspective, best chances of more organized shower and thunderstorm activity will arrive by the 2nd half of the work week, but coverage will remain scattered. As a whole, we’re expecting the upcoming forecast period to only result in 0.25” to 0.75” of precipitation.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/08/weekly-ag-and-severe-weather-outlook/

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