Category: Severe Weather

VIDEO: Tuesday Night Storms; Chilly Air Reinforces Itself After Briefly Milder Period…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/27/video-tuesday-night-storms-chilly-air-reinforces-itself-after-briefly-milder-period/

Week-Ahead Outlook; Additional Early-May Chatter…

We may only have a few days left in April, but widespread frost is being reported across north-central into east-central Indiana (yet again) with most across the region in the lower to middle 30s this morning.

Sunshine will dominate to start our Monday before mid and high level clouds increase this afternoon into the evening hours. Eventually these clouds will produce scattered showers by evening (targeting a 6p-7p arrival into central Indiana).

Initially these showers should be very light and scattered in nature, but heavier rain and embedded thunder will develop during the overnight hours.

Showers and embedded thunder will exit Tuesday morning and most of the day will be rain-free, including a return of sunshine. This will help boost high temperatures into the lower 70s Tuesday! Unfortunately, an approaching cold front will lead to a return of storms Tuesday evening and much cooler air by midweek. A few of the storms could reach strong to severe status Tuesday night with the primary concern being damaging wind and large hail.

Showers and thunderstorms will return Tuesday night. A few of these may be strong to severe.

The cold front will sweep through the area Wednesday followed by a cut off upper low “wobbling” around the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. This will lead to windy, showery, and much cooler conditions for midweek. In fact, temperatures Thursday will likely fall into the 40s during the daytime.

By the time all is said and done, we think most central Indiana communities can expect between 1.25″ and 1.75″ of rain, but there will be some locally heavier amounts in excess of 2″.

Major improvements are ahead as we get set to close the work week. High pressure will briefly build into the area, supplying plentiful sunshine and warmer conditions Friday.

The warmth will persist into the weekend and this morning’s video update dives into the longer range.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/27/week-ahead-outlook-additional-early-may-chatter/

VIDEO: Busy Week Ahead; Discussing The Drivers Behind What Should Be An Overall Chilly 1st Half Of May…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/26/video-busy-week-ahead-discussing-the-drivers-behind-what-should-be-an-overall-chilly-1st-half-of-may/

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. Potent area of low pressure will track along the Ohio River, spreading rain across the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast, including higher elevation wet snow.

II. A surface low and associated cold front will sweep into Plains Tuesday and to the eastern seaboard by Thursday. This system will have to be monitored for not only the potentially of locally heavy rain, but the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms on the journey southeast.

Wettest anomalies will extend from the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast over the upcoming 7-days. Widespread dry conditions can be expected across the central Plains into the Rockies.
Immediate central-Indiana can expect 2″ to 2.5″ of rain between now and next Saturday morning, with locally heavier amounts.
Summer-like heat will bake the West while the eastern 1/3 of the country remains cooler than normal.
We will have to keep close tabs on the midweek cold front as it may ignite strong to severe storms from the Plains to the East Coast in the Tuesday-Thursday time period. The SPC is already highlighting a Day 4 (Tuesday) risk.

Forecast Period: 04.25.20 through 05.02.20

Central Indiana and the Ohio Valley, as a whole, will have to deal with both storm systems highlighted above. While we still believe dry conditions will prevail through a good portion of our Saturday, rain will become more widespread this evening into Sunday morning in response to a surface low moving northeast along the Ohio River. A couple heavier bands of rain may develop across the region tonight into Sunday morning and by the time all is said and done, the southern half of the state (along and south of the I-70 corridor) can expect 0.50″ to 1″ of rain by Sunday afternoon. Further north, amounts between 0.25″ and 0.50″ will be more common. Drier air will build in late Sunday afternoon, along with a cooler northeasterly and northerly flow behind our departing storm system.

Monday morning will open dry, but a weak weather maker will scoot through the state during the afternoon, resulting in scattered showers making a return Monday PM. These will be quick-moving showers and rainfall totals are expected to remain light for those that do see rain.

A much more organized storm system will push southeast Tuesday evening and Wednesday leading to more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity during this time frame. Stronger storms and locally heavy rain will be a good bet with this particular system. Drier, cooler air returns behind this system as we get set to wrap up the work week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/25/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-4/

VIDEO: Pattern Turns More Active By The 2nd Half Of The Week; Early May Ideas…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/19/video-pattern-turns-more-active-by-the-2nd-half-of-the-week-early-may-ideas/

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. Another significant severe weather outbreak is expected across the Gulf Coast region Sunday into Monday.

II. An area of low pressure will bisect the country midweek, delivering widespread rain and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley and offering up another threat of severe weather Wednesday-Thursday for the TN Valley into the Deep South.

III. A 3rd system will track out of the northern Plains and begin to affect the Ohio Valley next weekend with increased showers and thunderstorms.

Wettest anomalies this week will be confined to the lower MS Valley, Deep South, and immediate East Coast.
Chilly weather (compared to normal) will continue to dominate the Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians and East.
Across immediate central Indiana, we’re expecting rainfall totals of 0.75″ to 1.25″ between now and next Saturday morning.
Unfortunately, another significant severe weather episode is expected across the Gulf Coast region on Sunday.

Forecast Period: 04.18.20 through 04.25.20

High pressure will build into the region today and supply a return of beautiful weather conditions. Albeit still cooler than normal, vastly improved weather conditions are on tap compared to the rain and snow of the past couple of days! Enjoy, friends!

A couple of weak and fairly moisture-starved cold fronts will give our immediate area “glancing blows” through early week. Scattered showers are all we can expect with these fronts Sunday and Tuesday. (Greater impacts from precipitation and cooler air can be expected off to our northeast with these fronts).

As we head into the back half of the forecast period, a couple of more significant storm systems will offer up better rainfall coverage, including the opportunity for thunderstorms Thursday into next weekend. We’ll keep an eye through the week on the potential of some stronger storms during this period, but as things stand now, the greater risk for severe appears to be off to our south.

One additional note- frost/ freeze conditions are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across central parts of the state with overnight lows falling into the lower 30s.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/18/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-3/

Late Season Wet Snow Storm For Northern Portions Of The Ohio Valley; Fresh Long Range Thoughts Into May…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/17/late-season-wet-snow-storm-for-northern-portions-of-the-ohio-valley-fresh-long-range-thoughts-into-may/

VIDEO: More Of A Winter-Like Forecast Than What You’d Expect For Mid-April; Heavy, Wet Snow “Thump” For Northern Parts Of The State Friday Morning…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/15/video-more-of-a-winter-like-forecast-than-what-youd-expect-for-mid-april-heavy-wet-snow-thump-for-northern-parts-of-the-state-friday-morning/

VIDEO: Short-Term Wintry Opportunities And Longer Range MJO Chatter…

Updated client video to go along with this morning’s discussion…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/13/video-short-term-wintry-opportunities-and-longer-range-mjo-chatter/

Couple Wintry Events For Portions Of The Ohio Valley This Week; MJO Differences In The Long Range…

Easter Sunday was a tough day across the Southeastern portion of the country, including a total of 465 severe reports. 53 of those were tornadoes, and the storm system continues to ravage the eastern seaboard this morning. Our thoughts and prayers are with our friends and family across the Southeast as they begin to clean up.

Much colder air has now filtered into the region on the backside of this storm system. We’ve already seen our high for the day (occurred at midnight) and temperatures will remain stuck in the 40s the remainder of the daytime before falling into the 30s this evening.

The big story today will be the wind. Northwest gusts of 40-50 MPH can be expected into the early to middle part of the afternoon before diminishing.

Clouds and wind will diminish tonight and set the stage for a cold night, including areas of frost throughout central Indiana. Most should fall to around 30° but there will be a few reports of upper 20s.

While a couple of instability-driven showers are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, most of the day should be free of any precipitation. Unfortunately the same can’t be said for Wednesday. An upper level disturbance will track through the central Ohio Valley and this will be responsible for spreading a mixture of rain and snow showers through central Indiana Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours. We’re not expecting much if any snowfall accumulation with this system and precipitation totals, overall, should be light, but it’s certainly not what those ready for spring are wanting in mid-April.

If that wasn’t enough, another (stronger) system is dialed up late Thursday into Friday. It’s this wave of low pressure, combined with the unseasonably cold air mass entrenched across the region, that may lead to wet snowfall accumulation across portions of the region. As of now, we think northern Indiana into northern Ohio stand the chance of picking up some wet snow accumulation and this system will require our attention over the next couple of days.

Thankfully, fleeting high pressure will build overhead to produce a return of the sun and drier conditions by Saturday before our next cold front approaches with showers for Sunday.

In the longer range, the MJO is deserving of our continued focus. Over the weekend, we noted the differences in handling the MJO amplitude between the American and European models, in particular. The European slows things down and keeps us in Phase 2 late-April which would have colder/ drier implications on the late month forecast. Meanwhile, the American models continue to move things into Phase 3 (wetter/ milder). We’ll keep close tabs on this and include another update with our Long Range discussion Thursday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/13/couple-wintry-events-for-portions-of-the-ohio-valley-this-week-mjo-differences-in-the-long-range/

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