Updated 04.11.22 @ 6:45a
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Category: Severe Weather
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/04/11/video-all-eyes-on-wednesday-afternoon-evening-for-the-potential-of-severe-weather/
Apr 06
More On The Upcoming Couple Of Weeks…
Updated 04.06.22 @ 6a
When we look at the “big driver” teleconnections over the next 10-14 days, it’s easy to understand why the active weather pattern is expected to continue. The NAO is expected to run predominantly negative over the next couple weeks (which favors eastern chill), but the EPO is expected to fluctuate between positive and negative phases and the MJO is showing signs of pushing into Phases 7 and 8 (favors eastern warmth this time of year).
The temperature regime over the next couple of weeks will fluctuate between periods of above normal warmth and well below normal chill. Despite a significant bump in the temperature regime next week, the unseasonably chilly conditions will return with authority late next week, including the threat of frost.
As you’d imagine in this kind of setup, the precipitation pattern will also go through a period of fluctuation. The heaviest precipitation anomalies will center in on the middle of next week through the latter part of the week and may also be met with the potential of severe weather during this time frame (targeting next Thursday for this threat, though this is subject to change as we draw closer and may have to be fine tuned).
Much more in tomorrow’s long range video discussion which will be posted Thursday night due to morning travel.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/04/06/more-on-the-upcoming-couple-of-weeks/
Apr 05
Yet Again, Warmth Likely Only A Tease…
Updated 04.05.22 @ 6:48a
We’ve already handled the jab of unseasonable chill and even opportunity for wet snow showers late week so want to focus more on what lies ahead. The idea here has been that a mid month warm up would pave the way to more sustained spring like temperatures for the 2nd half of April. While the mid month warmup is still certainly on track, the longevity and duration of such is now met with a much, much lower confidence.
The good news? A significant warmup is still dialed up next week. (This will be extra sweet coming on the heels of what will be a rough go of things with out of season chill and snow showers later this week). Highs in the 70s and even low 80s are a good bet next week.
A potent frontal system looms late next week that we’ll have to watch for the threat of severe weather. More on that ahead in our shorter term products as we get closer. The passage of this front will also likely usher in another airmass that’s set to run below, to well below normal. Frost potential is alive and kicking week after next (remember we also have to deal with frost/ freeze conditions this upcoming weekend) with this kind of pattern. The NAO takes a negative hit which also supports the temperature reversal from what will be such a warm stretch next week…
Remember, we’re only the messenger…
In the shorter term, today isn’t looking nearly as wet as once thought. There will be a few showers around, but the steadier, more persistent rain will fall to the southeast of central Indiana.
More widespread rain and even a couple embedded storms are slated to impact our neck of the woods Wednesday morning.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/04/05/yet-again-warmth-likely-only-a-tease/
Apr 03
VIDEO: Nice Close To The Weekend Before An Extended Stretch Of Unsettled Weather…
Updated 04.03.22 @ 9:11a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/04/03/video-nice-close-to-the-weekend-before-an-extended-stretch-of-unsettled-weather/
Mar 30
Much Warmer Day; Timing Out The Arrival Of Storms…
Updated 03.30.22 @ 6:38a
Our region will undergo a weather whiplash of sorts over the next 24-36 hours. We’ll briefly spike into the low-mid 70s with a strong southerly wind this afternoon- only to crash Thursday, including the opportunity for snow showers by evening.
The “transition” will be met with rain and storms tonight. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) includes southern Indiana in a “slight” risk of severe weather and this is for storms that will arrive this evening. The primary concern from a severe perspective is damaging straight line winds. The idea here is that the approaching line of storms may include a couple “bowing” segments across southern Indiana (along and south of a line from Terre Haute to Bloomington) roughly between 7p and 10p west to east.
Temperatures will then fall through the day Thursday and wrap around moisture will begin to mix with and transition to wet snow showers Thursday evening into Friday morning… (Remember, we’re only the messenger).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/30/much-warmer-day-timing-out-the-arrival-of-storms/
Mar 29
VIDEO: Chilly Showers Build In This Afternoon; Storms Blow In Wednesday Evening…
Updated 03.29.22 @ 6:45a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/29/video-chilly-showers-build-in-this-afternoon-storms-blow-in-wednesday-evening/
Mar 28
VIDEO: Sunny, Cold Open To The Work Week; Tracking Midweek Storms…
Updated 03.28.22 @ 6:35a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/28/video-sunny-cold-open-to-the-work-week-tracking-midweek-storms/
Mar 27
VIDEO: Conditions Come Together For A Few Strong Storms Wednesday Evening; Colder Shift Yet Again To Close The Week…
Updated 03.27.22 @ 8:52a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/27/video-conditions-come-together-for-a-few-strong-storms-wednesday-evening-colder-shift-yet-again-to-close-the-week/
Mar 26
Strong Storm Potential Midweek; Cold, Wintry Conditions Reinforce Themselves Next Weekend…
Updated 03.26.22 @ 8:45a
Some northern Indianapolis suburbs are waking up to more than a coating of snow this morning (have reports of 1″ to 2″ in and around Fishers this morning). Across other parts of the area, snow didn’t accumulate much more than a dusting, but all of the area has gotten in on the late season snow “excitement” (at least seeing it fall) between last night and early Saturday morning.
As we progress through the day, drier air will take hold and help put an end to the localized snow squalls. Skies will clear tonight and winds will diminish, allowing temperatures to fall into the middle 20s. If that’s not cold enough, Monday morning should feature low temperatures between 20° and 22° for most, especially outside of the immediate metro.
The new work week will open with sunshine before clouds increase late Monday and into Tuesday. Light rain will be fast to follow.
After a break in the action Wednesday morning, temperatures will briefly spike into the lower 70s by afternoon, courtesy of a strong southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Our attention by this time will shift to the west as an expanding area of rain and thunderstorms approaches for Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Side note: I wouldn’t be surprised if the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) eventually puts at least southern portions of the state in a risk of severe weather Wednesday (focused on evening into the nighttime hours). We’ll monitor that moving forward.
The front will quickly sweep through the state Thursday morning, allowing temperatures to fall through the day Thursday. In fact, temperatures will likely once again grow cold enough to allow wrap around rain to begin mixing with snow Thursday evening. Friday will likely feature scattered snow showers with temperatures struggling to make it out of the 30s for highs. Additional hard freezes are on deck next weekend (20s at night).
The pattern beyond next weekend continues to look colder than normal into the 10-15 day period. As long as that NAO remains negative, we won’t get excited for “stick and hold” spring conditions anytime soon…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/26/strong-storm-potential-midweek-cold-wintry-conditions-reinforce-themselves-next-weekend/
Mar 23
VIDEO: Severe Weather Develops This Afternoon; Unseasonably Cold Stretch On Deck…
Updated 03.23.22 @ 7:35a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/23/video-severe-weather-develops-this-afternoon-unseasonably-cold-stretch-on-deck/